华盛顿——白宫正准备发布一项研究,评估美国民主社会主义者推动的政策在未来十年将耗资49万亿美元;与此同时,共和党对这个左翼团体日益壮大声势的攻击,正成为中期选举的重要议题。
WASHINGTON — The White House is preparing to release a study assessing that policies pushed by the Democratic Socialists of America would cost $49 trillion over the next decade — as Republican attacks on the left-wing group’s rising prominence become a significant midterm issue.
由经济学家克里斯托弗·菲兰领导的白宫经济顾问委员会起草了一份题为《美国社会主义的真实成本》的报告,对该组织今年7月发布的“工人应得更多”纲领中的七项主要政策进行了评估。
The White House Council of Economic Advisers, led by economist Christopher Phelan, has drafted a report titled “The Real Cost of Socialism in America” evaluating seven major policies in the DSA’s “Workers Deserve More” platform released in July.
经济顾问委员会评估称:“这样算下来,美国每个家庭大约要承担35.5万美元的成本。这项负担要么通过举债,要么通过加税来筹措,而这两条路径都会给美国人的钱袋带来极其高昂的[代价]。经济顾问委员会对两种选择都进行了成本测算。” 新增成本几乎全部来自“全民医保”预计产生的49.4万亿美元开支,前提是使用者无需缴纳任何保费。
“This works out to a cost of approximately $355,000 per American household,” the CEA assessed. “That burden would have to be financed either by borrowing or by tax increases, both with dramatically costly [effects] to Americans pocketbooks, and CEA scored both paths.”Almost all of the added cost comes from an estimated $49.4 trillion price tag for “Medicare for All,” assuming that there are no premiums paid by users.
这部分开支将“通过节省2.8万亿美元行政成本和4.3万亿美元联邦医疗补助支出得到部分抵消”。单一支付制医保的支持者认为,用它取代私人保险保单可以降低美国个人的开支;反对者则指出,其他国家存在效率低下、等待时间过长和服务有限等问题。在2010年上一次重大医疗改革辩论期间,这一理念未能获得广泛支持。
The sum would be “partly offset by $2.8 trillion in administrative and $4.3 trillion in federal Medicaid savings.”Advocates of single-payer insurance argue it would save individual Americans by replacing their private insurance policies, though opponents point to inefficiency, long wait times and limited services in other countries. The concept failed to gain traction in 2010 during the last major health overhaul debate.
取消全部学生债务并免去本科教育费用将耗资3.6万亿美元,而终止美国移民与海关执法局的驱逐行动和赦免计划则可能耗资5300亿美元。
Canceling all student debt and making undergraduate education free would cost $3.6 trillion, while ending ICE deportations and amnesty programs could cost $530 billion.
美国民主社会主义者提出的每周32小时工作制将使联邦政府承担约9200亿美元成本,绿色新政相关政策将再增加3700亿美元,而将租金涨幅统一限制在1.5%则需160亿美元。
A DSA-proposed 32-hour work week would cost the feds about $920 billion, Green New Deal policies another $370 billion and a universal 1.5% cap on rent increases $16 billion.
与此同时,拟议中的财富税预计十年可带来3.94万亿美元收入,前提是对超过10亿美元的财富每年征收5%的税。
A proposed wealth tax, meanwhile, would bring in $3.94 trillion over 10 years, assuming a 5% annual tax on wealth above $1 billion.
美国经济协会(CEA)评估了征收财富税可能带来的副作用,报告指出:“美国工人的实际工资将下降2.5%,这意味着中等收入的全职工人每年将损失约1,700美元;110万名工人将失业;十年后美国的实际国内生产总值(GDP)将减少2.4%(十年总损失为8.6万亿美元);物价水平将上升2.8%;股市市值将减少3.8万亿美元,中等收入的401(k)退休账户资产也将减少约2,100美元。”
The CEA assessed ancillary effects of a wealth tax, writing: “Americans’ real wages fall 2.5 percent, about $1,700 a year for the median full-time worker. 1.1 million workers are unemployed and real GDP is 2.4 percent lower by the tenth year ($8.6 trillion over ten years). The price level is 2.8 percent higher. Stock market capitalization falls $3.8 trillion, about $2,100 from the median 401(k).”
该报告并未全面评估“民主社会主义运动”(DSA)提出的各项政策(如废除警察和监狱系统、削减国防部预算以及废除参议院)所带来的所有成本或潜在收益。
The CEA estimate didn’t evaluate all of the costs or savings of DSA proposals, such as moving toward abolishing police and prisons, defunding the Department of War and abolishing the Senate.
目前,共和党人正在重点支持那些在各地初选中取得意外胜利的“民主社会主义运动”支持者;特朗普则声称,如果民主党重新掌控国会,更多中间派党派成员会屈服于该运动的主张。
The White House is publishing the report as Republicans focus on DSA-backed candidates who made surprising gains in primaries across the country — as Trump claims more centrist party members would bend to the energetic movement’s priorities if Democrats retake Congress.
白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士表示:“民主党对共产主义和社会主义的拥护不仅对我们的国家核心价值观构成了根本性威胁,也对美国家庭造成了巨大灾难——这些家庭将不得不为这些脱离现实的意识形态付出巨额代价。”
“The Democrats’ embrace of communism and socialism is not only an existential threat to our nation’s fundamental values, but also a complete disaster for American families who would pay trillions to fund these out-of-touch ideas,” said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales.
特朗普总统表示:“我会在每一个环节进行反击,始终选择资本主义和自由,而不是共产主义和衰落。”不过,“民主社会主义运动”方面尚未对这一评论请求作出回应。
“President Trump will fight back at every turn — always choosing capitalism and freedom over communism and decline.”The DSA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.