Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s reshuffling of his cabinet signals an urgent need to address criticism and dipping ratings by banking on experienced technocrats and trusted figures in key positions, observers say.

But although the appointment of a new foreign minister raises hope of some restraint on Prabowo’s more “impulsive” foreign policy decisions, the president’s self-imposed role as “chief diplomat” is likely to remain unchanged.

In his second senior cabinet change in under three weeks, Prabowo on Thursday named his country’s former permanent representative to the UN, Arrmanatha Nasir, as the new foreign minister, with the outgoing Sugiono appointed coordinating minister for human development.

Golkar party politician Muhammad Sarmuji was named minister of industry, replacing Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita. Presidential Chief of Staff Dudung Abdurachman will now serve as the coordinating minister for political and security affairs while Bahlil Lahadalia has been appointed coordinating minister for downstreaming and energy transition, a new position in the cabinet.

The changes involve 10 ministerial and deputy ministerial appointments, as well as eight other senior leaders of agencies and the police force.

All 18 were sworn in at the presidential palace in Jakarta on Thursday afternoon.

On September 14, Prabowo replaced finance minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa with his deputy, Suahasil Nazara. Dedi Dinarto, associate director at strategic advisory firm FGS Global, said the reshuffle showed Prabowo balancing political consolidation with the need to maintain technocratic credibility. “He is placing trusted figures in key positions, while also promoting experienced technocrats such as Suahasil and Arrmanatha,” he said.

“This suggests Prabowo wants a cabinet that is closely aligned with his agenda, while ensuring that key portfolios are still run by people with strong professional and institutional experience.”

Dedi added that since Sarmuji hailed primarily from a political rather than a technocratic background, businesses and investors would be watching how the new industry minister handled a highly technical portfolio.

The reshuffle also reinforced Golkar’s standing as a key political ally of Prabowo, Dedi said.

Golkar is the second largest party in Indonesia’s parliament and a core member of the ruling coalition. Julia Lau, principal fellow and coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak, said Prabowo was approaching the halfway mark of his first term as president and needed to “stem the tide of negative sentiment and criticism, as well as dents in his personal popularity ratings, fast”.

The new foreign and finance ministers, Lau said, would hopefully restore some balance and order to their respective ministries and stem perceptions of disarray or conflict in the country’s policies.

“If Prabowo has struck the balance correctly in his cabinet, we should not see a similarly large reshuffle again soon,” she said.

“However, if more adjustments come within the next six months, it can also reflect a dissatisfaction with particular individuals, or a more uncertain political balance as we approach 2029, a critical election year.”

Criticism of Prabowo stems from concerns over his authoritarian governance style, democratic backsliding, economic strain from costly state-led programmes, and a hostile stance towards critics. The free meals programme in particular has come under heavy criticism due to mass food poisoning outbreaks, multimillion-dollar corruption scandals, and severe budget reallocation away from other vital sectors.

The reshuffle points to a clear effort in sidelining senior figures associated with former president Joko Widodo, according to Gatra Priyandita, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. These include former coordinating minister Pratikno and former police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, who has been moved to the comparatively less powerful role of head of the Executive Office of the President.

“That does not necessarily mean Jokowi’s broader political influence has significantly weakened, as many of his allies and networks remain embedded across government. But it does suggest that Prabowo is increasingly seeking to put his own stamp on the administration,” Gatra said.

The foreign minister appointment was particularly significant, according to Gatra, as Arrmanatha, an experienced diplomat who rose quickly through the ranks under former foreign minister Retno Marsudi, was likely to hold views that were more closely aligned to the ministry’s.

“There will be significant expectations within the foreign policy establishment that he can provide a degree of restraint on some of Prabowo’s more impulsive foreign policy decisions, particularly where these diverge from [the ministry] preferred positions,” Gatra said.

However, whether he could do so effectively was uncertain as Prabowo might place a premium on “loyalty and perhaps even compliance” over substantive bureaucratic advice, Gatra added.

A major change in direction was not expected, Dedi said, as Prabowo would remain Indonesia’s “chief diplomat and continue to drive foreign policy personally”.

“Arrmanatha’s role is expected to bring more substance and follow-through to the president’s active diplomacy,” he noted.

Since taking office in October 2024, Prabowo has taken control of Indonesia’s foreign policy and visited nearly 30 countries to position Jakarta as an active mediator and independent middle power.

Lau said the president’s “personalised style” of meeting leaders of large countries and conducting diplomacy in person was expected to remain unchanged.

However, Prabowo should let his diplomats and new foreign minister restore confidence in Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy and demonstrate leadership in Asean, she said.

“One priority would be the nomination of the Asean Secretary General and working well with the next Asean chair, Singapore, on key regional and transnational challenges.”Pressing issues facing Arrmanatha are the transboundary haze that has bothered Southeast Asian neighbours in recent months, Indonesia’s accession to the OECD, and the delicate diplomatic balance with the US and China, according to Lau.

Internally, given the “inconsistent” moves made during the previous foreign minister’s tenure, Arrmanatha might also have to improve morale among his career bureaucrats and diplomats and provide them with clear direction, she added.