If the vice president delivers a campaign speech, does it make a sound? One irony of modern elections, when everything a politician says behind a microphone is livestreamed, is that few of his words get heard outside the room. Since the Republicans’ midterm convention, which didn’t give their party its hoped-for boost, the frontrunner for the next GOP nomination has headlined four rallies for red state Republicans – in Iowa, North Carolina, Texas, and Florida.

Local coverage focused on a few remarks that were tailored to their states, like Vice President JD Vance’s plea, in Iowa, for Congress to enact year-round E15 sales. National coverage focuses on what the trip means, for Vance’s 2028 plans, or for the hue of the House and Senate map. News happens offstage, in interviews, outside what the pool cameras pick up. And when he says Florida’s Democratic nominee for Senate doesn’t “belong in America” clip accounts will be on it.

The content of Vance’s half-hour speeches at campaign rallies are worth watching on their own, to understand how he might run for president –only his third-ever campaign, and what that run signals about Republican politics in a soon to be post-Trump world.

The goal for Vance is continuing the 2024 project: A populist, multi-racial Republican Party that burns left-wing ideology out of public life. How can he sell that to voters who worry that they didn’t get the economy they voted for? How would he argue for another four-year lease on MAGA in 2028? We are finding out, in 30-minute bursts.

He describes a comeback economy that the media won’t cover correctly, with crime and unemployment coming down because of mass deportation, tariffs, and presidential jawboning. He attacks Democrats as elitists who’d deny the “dignity of racing your kids according to your values,” as he said in Texas.

“Are we going to vote for someone who says you’re a child abuser because you don’t want to trans your kids?” he said later in that speech.

Like the president, Vance describes Democrats as dishonest, pandering, and often stupid. In Iowa, after saying that some politicians were “good at saying nothing,” he lifted his right hand to his mouth for a stage whisper: “AOC.”The running mate who’d mock Kamala Harris’s “word salad” and joke that she got loaded is a rhetorical sniper – but now as an incumbent, trying to sell an economy that voters like less than the one they remembered when they voted in 2024.

Unlike Donald Trump, Vance stays on book – unless hecklers interrupt him, as they did in Lakeland, Fla. on Thursday. He describes the “mess” that “Sleepy Joe and Kamala” left behind and sticks to the GOP line that 2026 is a choice between “common sense and crazy.”In each state, he celebrates how one million American jobs were created since he and Trump were sworn in, which gets some applause; he mentions that all of the jobs went to citizens, which gets louder applause. (By this point in Trump’s first term, Republicans were campaigning on having created million new jobs.)

The border is closed, crime is at century-plus lows, and taxes got cut, without any help from Democrats.

The rest of the message is refined from stop to stop, as Vance tells the story of a president who is delivering for average people – “not the lobbyists, not the bureaucrats, not the people who have been running Washington D.C. for decades,” as he said in Greensboro, N.C. Trump is a populist battering ram, charging against not just the “crazy” left, but parts of corporate America.

Most voters are not convinced that the first 20 months of this administration have improved the economy. At his first post-convention rallies, Vance has never mentioned the war in Iran, or specifically talked about frustration with high gas prices. He’s acknowledged that Republicans have some selling to do.

“I know there are people out there who are frustrated with the pace of progress as we dig out of that hole,” he said in Harlingen. “Look, sometimes I’m frustrated with it.”But there’s not much for Republicans to atone for. Even when a number is moving in the wrong direction, it’s moving in the right direction.

How to explain why inflation is about as high now as it was on Inauguration Day?

“Under their leadership, they had 8% inflation under Joe Biden,” Vance said in Florida. “And in 2025, we brought it down below 2%. And so far in 2026, we’ve got it down below 3%.”Vance’s case against the Democrats on the ballot is less labored. Every audience hears about the tweets from Michigan’s William Lawrence, condemning the nuclear family, and New York’s Darializa Avila Chevalier, about how July 4 should be about the liberation of Palestine and Puerto Rico.

“I try to imagine the founding fathers, with their quill pen, sitting down and thinking about the liberation of Palestine and Puerto Rico,” he said in Greensboro. The local Democrats have other problems – usually, left-wing statements or views about gender that they’re afraid to talk about now. In North Carolina, he lit into former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democrats’ U.S. Senate nominee, for recognizing “Gender Expansive Parents Day”; in Iowa, he asked why gubernatorial nominee Rob Sand would “passionately defend a children’s book about nonbinary parents and poly families.”Are these Democrats perverted? It was worth asking.

“If your six-year old son comes home one day and says he’s a girl, Talafreako says, and I quote it is abusive – abusive! – if you don’t let school officials put him on hormones and change his pronouns,” Vance said of Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico in Harlingen. “You’ve gotta wonder: What really motivates a man who spends so much time talking about 11-year old drag queens?”

In Harlingen, part of the Rio Grande Valley where the pro-Trump swing that year was most dramatic, Vance accused the left of trying to “distract” non-white people with “this lie that we should hate each other.”The hillbilly and the tejano could be friends.

“I see, of course, an incredible diversity of backgrounds just in this crowd in Texas 34,” Vance said, in front of a largely Latino crowd. “And I can tell you that yes, my skin might burn in the sun a little bit easier than some of yours. But for generations, people like your grandparents and parents, and my grandparents and parents – what did we do? We drove the trucks. We tended the fields. We cared for the sick and elderly. We mined our coal. And of course, we fought our wars.”In a few months, this might be the message of the likely Republican nominee for president. The midterm comes first.

Johnny Garcia, the Democratic nominee in a district next to the one Vance visited, told Semafor that the president and vice president were not exactly helping their party. Republicans re-drew Texas’s 35th district last year, turning a seat that voted solidly for Kamala Harris into one that backed Trump by 11 points.

“They are hoping they’re going to see a repeat of 2024, but we’re not seeing the same type of energy being repeated today,” he said. “We’re not seeing as many Trump flags – I would pass by people’s homes and just see Trump flags as far as the eye can see.”

The reason, he said, was prices. “Look at what a Congress full of Senate and House Republican yes men and yes women has gotten us: higher costs at the gas pump, the groceries, and to fill up your prescription meds.”

As Vance traveled to Florida, The Tampa Bay Times’s Michael Van Sicker asked whether the White House was hurting Republicans in a state they’d conquered. Democrats “point out that some candidates, including [gubernatorial nominee Byron] Donalds, scrubbed their campaign websites of prominent displays of Trump support.“Jeremy Wallace explored the same question in the Houston Chronicle. Vance “used his visit to tout what he said were 10,000 jobs being created at the Port of Brownsville directly because of Trump administration policies.”