Almost immediately after next month’s midterms, attention will turn to 2028, which figures to be an election without recent precedent. For the first time in more than a decade, Republicans will enter a presidential election without Donald Trump atop the ticket, forcing the party to define its identity and direction in a post-Trump era. Democrats face a related challenge: They, too, lack a clear identity and future standard-bearer. Former Vice President Kamala Harris leads most national polls, yet donors and strategists are reportedly wary of another run after her 2024 performance.

That leaves a wide-open field, with roughly a dozen potential Democratic candidates trying to break through while the party remains caught between its progressive and establishment wings. But while Democrats continue surveying the field, their most likely Republican opponent has already begun staking out his lane to the White House. Vice President JD Vance has assumed an increasingly public role in recent weeks, becoming, as Politico described, a “voice of patience and even empathy.”

Vance has acknowledged voters’ deep frustration with the administration, particularly over the cost of living and the war with Iran. He has asked voters for patience, telling them “not to throw the baby out with the bathwater” if they disagree with the administration on individual policies. That is a marked contrast with President Trump, who has dismissed affordability concerns as a “hoax,” given himself an A+ “on everything” and consistently paints a rosy picture of an economy that voters remain unhappy with. At the same time, Vance has sought to deepen the Republicans’ populist turn while energizing his own political base.

He has appealed to “America First” voters with attacks on “globalized liberalism,” “American elites” and the idea that free markets necessarily benefit Americans — an approach the New York Times called “New Right economics.”On foreign policy — the issue on which Vance most clearly diverges from Trump — he has given voice to the Republicans’ increasingly isolationist, Israel-skeptical flank, including by leading the push for last summer’s ceasefire with Iran.

To be sure, the vice president’s unofficial role is to sell the administration’s agenda. But Trump has always been his own chief salesman. Vance is plainly attempting something more: making his own mark on the Republican Party ahead of 2028 and beyond. But will it work? Vice presidents often run as a continuation of the incumbent. Yet Trump is deeply unpopular, with just a 38 percent approval rating, and Vance is unlikely to replicate Trump’s charisma or personal bond with the Republican base, though that could change if he gets Trump’s endorsement.

Much as Harris has among Democrats, Vance has long led early 2028 polling on the Republican side, benefiting from his close association with Trump and support among MAGA voters. His average lead in 2028 nomination polls is roughly 16 points, according to RealClearPolitics. The base’s enthusiasm was evident at last month’s Republican midterm convention, where Vance drew thunderous applause and chants of “48” — a reference to his becoming the 48th president.

Unlike the Democrats’ field, however, the Republican field is currently quite narrow. Aside from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, virtually no other prospective candidate is viewed as a serious contender. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Donald Trump Jr. are the only other candidates who regularly top 5 percent in polls — Vance and Rubio are in a tier of their own. Trump assembled an impressive coalition in 2024, particularly among Hispanic voters, but that support has eroded.

Recent NBC polling put his approval among Hispanics at just 27 percent. It is difficult to see Vance improving substantially with these voters while he adheres to the party line on immigration and defends Immigration and Customs Enforcement overreach, including calling the ICE-involved shooting of Renee Good a “tragedy of her own making.”Vance’s 2028 prospects are also inextricably linked to the Republican Party's midterm performance — and Democrats currently lead the generic ballot by 8 points.

New York Times-Siena polling in key Senate races in Texas, Alaska, New Hampshire, Ohio and Michigan also shows Democrats ahead, while even deep-red Iowa and Kansas are “neck and neck.”Likewise, Emerson’s August survey suggested that independents are not yet sold on Vance. In hypothetical matchups against five leading Democrats, Rubio consistently outperformed the vice president.

The contrast was especially notable against Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). Vance trailed both, but Rubio led Harris by 5 points and was virtually tied with Newsom. To Vance’s credit, his strategy is politically astute. As Trump’s natural heir, he likely sees an opportunity to steer Republicans toward his own brand of populism, while a more sympathetic posture could help him compete for independents.

He is also shrewdly aware that whoever Trump endorses will almost certainly win the party’s nomination, as Trump remains popular with Republicans in spite of his low poll numbers with the overall electorate. Whether Vance succeeds remains to be seen. But by presenting a softer face of the administration while trying to steer the party in his preferred direction, he is revealing both his political instincts and the scale of his ambitions. Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”