距离2026年中期选举结束仅剩35天，这意味着2028年总统选举也将在36天后拉开帷幕。
The 2026 midterm campaign is 35 days away from ending, which means the 2028 presidential campaign is 36 days away from beginning.
目前，共和党内部的争论焦点并非11月的选举结果是否会糟糕，而是会糟糕到什么程度。“我们肯定会惨败，”一位众议院共和党议员对MS NOW说道，“唯一的问题就是败得有多惨。” 负责支持共和党参议员的超级政治行动委员会也已撤出北卡罗来纳州，将资源转向近一个世纪以来从未选出过民主党人的堪萨斯州。
Currently, the debate among Republicans is not whether the November elections will go badly, but how badly it will go. “We’re gonna get crushed,”one House Republican told MS NOW“The only question is by how much.”Senate Republicans’ top super political action committee has already pulled out of North Carolina and moved resources to Kansas which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.
然而，在选举日当天处境最为艰难的共和党人或许甚至不会出现在选票上：副总统JD·万斯。
Yet the Republican with the most on the line come Election Day may not even be on the ballot: Vice President JD Vance.
即便特朗普的支持率仅维持在30%左右，这部分为数不多的支持者仍将构成2028年共和党初选的选民基础，而他们似乎早已选定了副总统作为自己的候选人。
Even if Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s, that dwindling group will make up the Republican primary electorate in 2028 — and its members seem to have already chosen the vice president.
“从政治层面来看，大家都明白：当共和党同时掌控白宫、参议院和众议院时，赢得中期选举向来都是件难事，”万斯上周对NBC新闻说道。不过，他所在政党的困境远非历史规律所能解释。船要沉没时，最先掉落的往往是压舱物——如今特朗普的平均支持率已降至30%出头。民主党在各类民意调查中的领先优势持续扩大；伊朗战争陷入僵局，物价也始终居高不下。
“Politically, there’s just a recognition that it’s always going to be hard to win a midterm when you have the White House, the Senate and the House,” Vance told NBC News last week But his party’s problems are greater than historical trends. When the ship goes down, it’s the anchor that usually goes first, as Trump’s average approval ratings have dropped to the mid-30s Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot keeps growing The Iran war is stalled. Prices remain persistently high.
许多曾支持特朗普在2024年胜选的选民纷纷离去，留下的支持者之间也分歧不断。在选举日到来之前，这些趋势几乎没有逆转的可能，甚至还有进一步恶化的风险。
Many voters who joined Trump’s winning 2024 coalition have fled, while fissures widen among those who stayed. There is little prospect that these trends reverse before Election Day, but there is concern they could grow worse.
特朗普目前的民调数据让人联想到乔治·W·布什的第二任期。在布什执政后期，民主党的强势势头并不仅限于2006年的中期选举；2008年又出现第二波高潮：巴拉克·奥巴马成功当选总统，民主党在众议院和参议院也获得了更多席位。大多数人认为，在布什执政八年之后，无论哪位民主党候选人都能击败任何共和党对手。
Trump’s polls are reminiscent of George W. Bush’s second term, and the Democratic wave of the late Bush years was not confined to the 2006 midterms. A second wave crested in 2008: Barack Obama won the presidency and Democrats gained even more seats in the House and Senate. Most believe that in 2008, whoever won the Democratic nomination would have beat any Republican after eight years of Bush.
奥巴马与希拉里·克林顿的党内初选竞争远比他后来对阵麦凯恩的大选激烈——而麦凯恩甚至并非布什政府的成员。倘若克林顿在2008年初选胜出，毫无疑问她会成为20年前的美国首位女总统。
Obama’s primary race with Hillary Clinton was far closer than his general election with McCain, who was not even a member of the Bush administration. Had Clinton prevailed in the 2008 primary, there is little doubt she would have been the first woman president 20 years ago.
2026年9月29日：在2028年共和党初选还有一年多才举行之际，像卡尔·罗夫这样的共和党资深人士已对党内几乎无人挑战万斯、便将其推上提名候选人的做法表示担忧。然而，在特朗普主持的中期选举大会上，“48”的欢呼声已说明一切。即便特朗普的支持率仅维持在30%左右，这群人数虽少却忠诚的选民仍将构成2028年共和党初选的选民基础——他们似乎早已选定了副总统作为自己的首选。
How Democrats can move forward after the midterms to 2028 September 29, 2026 The first 2028 Republican primary is more than a year away, and old GOP hands like Karl Rove have voiced concern about the party handing Vance the nomination with little opposition. But the cheers of “48” at Trump’s midterm convention spoke volumes. Even if Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s, that dwindling group will make up the Republican primary electorate in 2028 — and its members seem to have already chosen the vice president.
目前被提及可能参选2028年总统的政客，包括泰德·克鲁兹和里克·斯科特两位参议员，在民调中获得的支持率都微乎其微。唯一的例外是国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥，他早已暗示不会在2028年与万斯竞争。
Most of the politicians floated as 2028 candidates including Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, minimal support in polling The exception, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has long signaled he will not challenge Vance in 2028.
不过，对万斯而言，初选或许顺利，但大选之路却可能举步维艰。他的总统竞选之路或许能解答这样一个问题：倘若2008年共和党提名时任副总统迪克·切尼参选，该党命运又会如何？切尼虽然和布什一样不受欢迎，但或许更招人厌恶。
But a primary walk for Vance may quickly turn to a general election crawl. Vance’s presidential campaign may answer the question of what the fate of the Republican Party would have been if then-Vice President Dick Cheney had been the nominee in 2008 — equally unpopular as their president but possibly more unlikable.
倘若未来两年情况仍如过去两年一般糟糕，共和党保住白宫的希望将荡然无存。事实已经证明：局势越恶劣，总统的表现就越糟糕。对许多观察人士而言，这一切都不足为奇。
Two more years like the past two will doom Republicans’ chances of retaining the White House. We have already seen that when things get bad, the president gets worse. None of this is a surprise to many observers.
就连万斯的支持者彼得·蒂尔也坦言：“我担心[万斯或卢比奥]很难赢得大选。”令人意外的是，一位“与卢比奥关系密切”的人士向NBC新闻透露：这位国务卿“曾在私下场合承认，2028年对共和党而言形势可能十分严峻，并暗示2032年或2036年竞选总统的机会或许更大。”不过另有消息源告诉NBC，卢比奥目前仍在保留所有可能性。
Even Vance patron Peter Thiel says“I worry that it will be very hard for [Vance or Rubio] to win.”But what is surprising is what a person “close to” Rubio said to NBC News The secretary of state “has acknowledged behind closed doors that the landscape may be tough for Republicans in 2028 and suggested that a presidential run in 2032 or 2036 may be more promising,” though another source told NBC that Rubio is keeping all his options open.
随着2028年大选传闻愈演愈烈，万斯面临着克服特朗普执政遗留影响的巨大障碍。Axios上周报道称：“卢比奥显然是特朗普心目中接替万斯的最佳人选，但他本人似乎并不热衷此角色。”报道还指出，密苏里州参议员埃里克·施密特“与万斯副总统关系日益密切，被视为2028年副总统候选人的头号人选”。然而就在当天，施密特质疑前司法部长杰克·史密斯的做法引发舆论哗然，这一传闻也随之不攻自破。
Vance faces major hurdle in overcoming weight of Trump’s presidency as 2028 rumors grow“Rubio is obviously the Trump favorite for Vance’s Axios reported last week“but he doesn’t seem eager for that role.” Instead, Axios said that Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt “has grown close to Vice President Vance and is seen as a top prospect to become a potential 2028 running mate.” That trail balloon deflated the same day after Schmitt’s questioning of former counsel Jack Smith blew up in the senator’s face. President Donald Trump’s numbers, like his second term, are seemingly unrecoverable.
唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率与其第二任期一样，似乎已难以回升。若未来两年情况依旧如此，共和党保住白宫的希望将荡然无存。事实已经证明：局势越糟糕，总统的表现就越糟糕。随着共和党逐渐脱离民众，总统本人也愈发脱离现实。
Two more years like the past two will doom Republicans’ chances of retaining the White House. We have already seen that when things get bad, the president gets worse. Already we have seen when things get bad, the president gets worse. As the party loses touch with the public, the president is losing touch with reality.
作为2028年MAGA阵营的潜在接班人，万斯必须不断附和或试图为特朗普的任何反常言行、不合时宜的主张开脱。极有可能出现的情况是：他将在对共和党更为不利的恶劣政治环境中参选——而这一切都必须在特朗普的阴影下完成。
As the 2028 MAGA heir apparent, Vance will have to continue to parrot or attempt to excuse any erratic behavior or irrelevant idea Trump offers. There is a very real possibility he will be running in an even more toxic political environment for Republicans — all while he runs in and from Trump’s shadow.
尽管2026年局势尚不明朗，但许多共和党人似乎已认定万斯将是2028年的候选人。不过鉴于特朗普仍在任上，万斯在那场大选中的命运或许早已注定。
While 2026 is still unclear, it appears many Republicans are all but certain on Vance in 2028. But with Trump still as president, Vance’s fate in that race may already be certain as well. The post The Republican with the most on the line this Election Day isn’t on the ballot MS NOW