副总统万斯和国务卿马可·鲁比奥在2028年共和党总统提名的早期民调中领跑，而前副总统哈里斯则在民主党竞争者中领先。
Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are at the top of early polling for the GOP presidential nod in 2028, while former Vice President Harris leads a wide-open Democratic field.
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学本周发布的一项民调显示，万斯获得33%的共和党初选选民支持，领先鲁比奥10个百分点，后者得23%。特朗普总统曾多次暗示这两人是潜在竞争者，尽管万斯长期被视为继任者，但他表示从未与总统谈过竞选事宜，鲁比奥则表示不打算在下一周期参选。特朗普过去曾扬言竞选违宪的第三任期，此次仍获得8%支持，显示出他在进入第二任期后半段时对共和党的持久掌控力。
A New York Times/Siena University survey released this week found Vance with 33 percent support from Republican primary voters, 10 points ahead of Rubio at 23 percent. President Trump has repeatedly floated both men as potential contenders, though Vance, long seen as the heir-apparent, has said he’s never spoken to the president about running, and Rubio has said he’s not planning on mounting a bid next cycle. Trump, who in the past has floated running for an unconstitutional third term, snagged 8 percent, signaling his lasting grip on the GOP as he heads into the last half of his second term.
紧随其后的是佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（共和党），他在2024年曾挑战特朗普，获得3%支持。另有6%的共和党受访者提名了其他人选，26%表示不知道支持谁。
Trump was followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who challenged Trump in 2024, at 3 percent. Another 6 percent of Republican respondents named someone else, and 26 percent said they didn’t know who to back.
在民主党方面，哈里斯获得12%民主党初选选民支持，领先加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森（民主党）的9%和前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格的7%。进步派众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）、佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫（民主党）和亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利（民主党）也获得个位数支持，分别为6%、4%和3%。但另有15%的民主党受访者提名了其他候选人——高达45%表示不知道会在下一届总统大选中支持谁。
Across the aisle, Harris snagged 12 percent support from Democratic primary voters, ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) with 9 percent and former Transporatation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 7 percent. Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) also pulled in single-digit support, with 6 percent, 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively. But another 15 percent in the party named other candidates — and a whopping 45 percent said they didn’t know who they’d pick for the next White House race.
大约一半的民主党人表示，希望看到本党在2028年临近时向中间靠拢，而27%认为应向左转，21%认为应维持现状。令人震惊的是，72%的关键独立选民群体也认为民主党应向中间靠拢。
Roughly half of Democrats said they want to see their party move toward the center as 2028 approaches, compared to 27 percent who said it should shift left and 21 who said it should stay as-is. A staggering 72 percent of the pivotal independent bloc, though, also said the Democrats should move toward the center.
超过80%的独立选民也表示希望共和党远离特朗普，尽管只有三分之一的共和党选民持同样看法。该调查于10月12日至19日在3494名选民中进行。在可能投票者和已登记选民中，抽样误差为正负1.9个百分点。
More than 80 percent of independents also said they want Republicans to move away from Trump, though just a third of Republicans said the same. The survey was conducted Oct. 12-19 among 3,494 voters. The margin of sampling error was 1.9 percentage points among the likely electorate and registered voters.