路透社/Ipsos 10月8日公布的民调显示，特朗普的支持者对中期选举投票并不热衷——在2024年支持民主党前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的选民中，今年11月投票的热情远高于支持唐纳德·特朗普总统的选民，这对共和党而言可能是一个警示信号。
Trump voters are not pumped about voting in the midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Oct 8 - Voters who backed Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 are far more enthusiastic about casting ballots this November than those who supported President Donald Trump, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, in a potential warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
这项为期六天、于周一完成的民调还发现，男性比女性对投票更为热情，且更确定会参与投票；同时，男性选民也表现出向民主党倾斜的迹象。这可能意味着，在曾支撑特朗普2024年胜利的关键群体中，对共和党的支持正在减弱。
The six-day poll, completed Monday, also found that men were more enthusiastic about voting and more certain to cast ballots than women, and that male voters showed signs of shifting toward Democrats. That could signal erosion in Republican support among a demographic that was a pillar of Trump's 2024 victory.
在2024年支持哈里斯的选民中，约有48%表示对11月3日的中期选举“非常热衷”，届时国会两院的控制权都将面临考验。相比之下，支持特朗普的选民中仅有30%表达了同样的热情。
Some 48% of 2024 Harris voters said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting in the November 3 midterm elections, when control of both chambers of Congress is at stake. By comparison, just 30% of Trump voters said the same in the poll.
这些结果进一步证实了民主党在选民热情上的优势，并暗示了曾推动特朗普在2024年赢得普选胜利的联盟可能正在出现裂痕。该联盟的凝聚力源于男性选民的强烈支持，以及拉丁裔选民和其他在2024年选举中向右转的群体的支持。
The findings add to evidence of an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats and suggest potential cracks in the coalition that propelled Trump in 2024, when he won the popular vote. That coalition was fueled by strong support from men and gains among Hispanic voters and other demographic groups that shifted to the right in the 2024 election.
此外，这一民调也为民主党带来了更多鼓舞人心的迹象。在特朗普的支持率因选民对生活成本和与伊朗战争的担忧而下滑之际，民主党普遍被看好将赢得众议院的控制权，并在参议院争夺战中保持竞争力。
The poll also adds to a string of encouraging signs for Democrats, who are widely favored to win control of the House of Representatives and remain competitive in the fight for the Senate as Trump's approval ratings have slipped amid voter concerns about the cost of living and the war with Iran. Republican strategist Charlie Gerow said the poll's findings raise the stakes for his party's turnout efforts, though he expects the enthusiasm gap to narrow as concerns about what he described as far-left Democrats gaining power motivate Republican voters.
共和党策略师查理·杰罗表示，该民调的结果提升了其政党在动员选民投票方面的压力。不过，他预计，随着对所谓“极左民主党”掌权的担忧加剧，这种热情差距将会缩小，从而激励共和党选民参与投票。
"The enthusiasm has to be ginned up among Republicans because turnout is what's going to determine the outcome of these midterm elections," Gerow said. While Trump voters overwhelmingly plan to vote Republican and Harris voters are similarly inclined to vote Democratic, the president's 2024 supporters are less decided, with 13% saying they aren't sure who to vote for in congressional elections, compared to 7% of Harris supporters who say the same.
杰罗说：“共和党必须激发选民的热情，因为投票率将决定这些中期选举的最终结果。”
BROAD DECLINE IN SUPPORT The poll, which was conducted nationwide and surveyed 4,506 adults online, showed that just 32% of Americans approved of Trump's presidency, holding at a record low first marked in a September Reuters/Ipsos survey.
虽然特朗普的支持者绝大多数计划投票给共和党，哈里斯的支持者也倾向于投票给民主党，但特朗普在2024年的支持者们的投票意向并不明确：有13%的特朗普支持者表示他们在国会选举中不确定该投票给谁，而哈里斯的支持者中只有7%的人表示同样犹豫不决。
The survey has a 2 percentage point margin of error.
这项在全国范围内进行的在线调查共调查了4,506名成年人，结果显示：仅有32%的美国人支持特朗普的总统任期表现，这一比例创下了自2021年9月路透社/益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）调查以来的新低。该调查的误差范围为2个百分点。
Since taking office in January 2025, support for Trump has fallen across every major demographic group, including double-digit drops among Hispanics, men, rural and suburban voters, people without college degrees and evangelical Christians. One notable shift has come among men, a group Trump won in all three of his presidential campaigns, including by a 12-point margin in 2024, according to a Pew Research analysis.
自2025年1月上任以来，特朗普的支持率在所有主要人群中均呈下降趋势，尤其是在西班牙裔选民、男性选民、农村和郊区选民、没有大学学历的选民以及福音派基督徒中，支持率降幅尤为明显（降幅均达到了两位数）。
When asked how they would vote in a congressional race if the elections were today, men in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll picked Democrats over Republicans, 43% to 39%.
根据皮尤研究中心（Pew Research）的分析，一个值得注意的变化发生在男性选民群体中——在特朗普的前三次总统竞选中，男性选民始终是他的主要支持者；但在2024年的选举中，特朗普在男性选民中的支持率反而下降了12个百分点。
The four-point Democratic advantage was the widest of Trump's second term.
在最新的路透社/益普索调查中，当被问及如果现在就举行国会选举他们会如何投票时，43%的男性选民表示会支持民主党，而只有39%的男性选民支持共和党。这种4个百分点的民主党优势是特朗普第二个任期内最大的优势差距。在2025年初，男性选民普遍支持共和党；但从8月份开始，他们的支持倾向转向了民主党。
Men consistently favored Republicans in 2025 but since August have mostly favored Democrats. The warning signs for Republicans reflect growing voter concerns about the high cost of living amid a surge in gasoline and diesel prices following the war with Iran. Trump launched the Iran attacks in February, despite pledging during his campaign not to start new conflicts and to lower costs for consumers.
对于共和党来说，这些负面信号反映了选民们对生活成本上升的担忧——尤其是在伊朗战争导致汽油和柴油价格飙升的情况下。尽管特朗普在竞选期间承诺不会挑起新的冲突并降低消费者成本，但他还是在2月份发起了对伊朗的军事行动。
Cost of living is the top issue on Americans' minds as they decide how they will vote next month, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Voters cite democratic values as the second biggest issue, followed by immigration.
路透社/益普索的调查发现，在决定下个月如何投票时，生活成本是美国人最关心的问题；其次是民主价值观问题，移民问题排在第三位。
Republicans continue to hold an edge among older voters, a crucial bloc in midterm elections, when seniors have historically accounted for an outsized share of the electorate.
共和党人在老年选民中依然保持优势，这是一个在期中选举中至关重要的群体，因为从历史上看，老年人在选民中所占的比例往往过高。50岁及以上的选民目前仍以44%对42%的比例支持共和党而非民主党，领先2个百分点，尽管这一优势已较去年12月的8个百分点有所下降。尽管如此，共和党人仍面临巨大的热情差距。
Voters 50 and older still favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party by 2 percentage points, 44% to 42%, though that was down from an 8-point Republican advantage in December. Still, the enthusiasm gap looms large for Republicans. Among all the voters in the poll who said they were enthusiastic, 62% said they were pumped about expressing opposition to Trump, compared to 36% who said they were eager to support the president.
在所有受访选民中，表示自己充满热情的选民里，有62%的人表示他们热衷于表达对特朗普的反对，而只有36%的人表示他们渴望支持总统。
Linda Rivera, a 46-year-old Trump voter in Pennsylvania, said that while she would probably vote Republican if she casts a ballot, she is frustrated with both parties and feels “neither enthusiastic or unenthusiastic” about voting next month.
宾夕法尼亚州46岁的特朗普选民琳达·里维拉（Linda Rivera）表示，虽然如果她去投票的话可能会投给共和党，但她对两党都感到沮丧，并表示对下个月的投票“既不热情也不冷淡”。
Rivera, a respondent in the poll, said concerns about widespread voting fraud - which have been repeatedly fanned by Trump and his Republican allies without evidence - have added to her doubts about whether she will vote.
作为该民调的受访者，里维拉表示，对普遍存在选举舞弊的担忧——特朗普及其共和党盟友在没有证据的情况下反复煽动这种担忧——加剧了她对是否投票的怀疑。
"I have lost faith in the voting process," she told Reuters.
“我已经对投票过程失去了信心，”她告诉路透社。“我对两党都失去了信心。不仅仅是其中一个。”路透社
"I have lost faith in both parties. Not just one." REUTERS