2026年的中期选举正值民众对国家现状深感不满之际：唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率降至历史低位，民众对国家经济状况及与伊朗的持续冲突也愈发担忧。
The 2026 midterm election is taking place amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, near-record low approval ratings of President Donald Trump, and growing negativity about national economic conditions and the ongoing conflict with Iran.
在此背景下，在全美所有登记选民中，民主党候选人目前在众议院选举中的支持率领先共和党候选人8个百分点。
Against this backdrop, Democratic candidates now hold an 8 percentage point edge over Republican candidates in preferences for the House of Representatives among alled voters nationally.
尽管今年秋季许多登记选民可能不会参与投票，但相较于共和党候选人的支持者，民主党候选人的支持者表现出较高的参与热情与投票积极性。例如：在支持本选区民主党候选人的选民中，有78%的人认为哪个政党掌控国会“至关重要”——这一比例比支持共和党候选人的选民高出9个百分点。
And while manyed voters will not turn out to vote this fall, Democratic candidates are also buoyed by their supporters’ relatively high levels of engagement and stated motivation to vote when compared with those who are backing Republican candidates. For example: 78% of voters who back their House district’s Democratic candidate say it “really matters” which party wins control of Congress – 9 points higher than the share of Republican backers who say this.
相比之下，在2022年中期选举前夕，共和党候选人的支持者在这一指标上的比例反而比民主党支持者高出4个百分点。
In contrast, Republican candidate supporters were 4 points higher on this measure than Democratic supporters at a similar point before the 2022 midterm election.
在其他参与度指标上，两党支持者间的差距同样显著：民主党支持者中，有“大量思考”今年选举问题的人占比比共和党支持者高出14个百分点；自称“极具投票动力”的人占比则高出17个百分点。
The partisan gap is also wide on other measures of engagement: Democratic supporters are 14 points more likely than Republican supporters to say they have given this year’s election “a lot” of thought and 17 points more likely to say they are “extremely motivated” to vote this year.
皮尤研究中心于2026年9月28日至10月4日期间对5,062名美国成年人（其中包括3,917名登记选民）开展的调查显示：唐纳德·特朗普目前的支持率为30%，创其第二任期内新低。多数选民（63%）表示特朗普是影响自己对国会选举投票决策的因素；其中，将此次投票视为“反对特朗普”之举的选民比例（44%）远高于将其视为“支持特朗普”之举的比例（19%）。
A new Pew Research Center survey of 5,062 U.S. adults – including 3,917ed voters – conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026, also finds that Donald Trump’s approval rating now stands at 30% – the lowest of his second term. Most voters (63%) consider Trump a factor in their vote for Congress, with far more thinking of their choice as a vote against the president (44%) than for him (19%).
随着经济评价日益负面，人们对物价上涨的担忧不断加剧——尤其是天然气与能源价格——经济问题今年依然是各政治阵营选民最为关注的议题：84%的登记选民认为经济因素对其投票决策至关重要，这一比例在支持民主党的选民中达到88%，在支持共和党的选民中则为82%。
As economic ratings turn more negative and concerns about prices rise – particularly for gas and energy – the economy continues to rank as the top voting issue this year, across the political spectrum: 84% ofed voters – including 88% of those who support Democrats and 82% who back Republicans – say it is very important to their vote.
在中期选举中，目前民主党在全国范围内的支持率领先共和党8个百分点。若今天举行选举，44%的登记选民表示会投票给民主党候选人以竞选众议院席位，36%的选民则倾向于选择共和党候选人。另有5%的选民表示会投票给其他候选人，15%的选民尚未拿定主意。
The midterm race Democrats currently hold an 8 percentage point edge in national vote preferences, with 44% of alled voters saying they would support a Democrat for the House if the election were held today and 36% preferring a Republican. Another 5% say they would select a different candidate and 15% say they aren’t sure.
在已确认参与2024年选举的登记选民中，曾投票给特朗普的选民对共和党候选人的支持率（77%）低于曾投票给哈里斯的选民对民主党候选人的支持率（87%）。
Among validated voters – confirmed to have voted in the 2024 election – those who voted for Trump are less consolidated behind GOP candidates (77%) than Kamala Harris’ voters are behind Democratic candidates (87%).
这种差异在那些对各自政党持负面看法的选民群体中表现得更为明显——这类选民分别占2024年两大阵营选民总数的四分之一：如今对共和党持负面看法的特朗普支持者中，仅有49%表示会投票给共和党众议院候选人。仅有12%的人表示会支持民主党候选人，超过三分之一的选民则表示“不确定”（25%）或倾向于“选择其他候选人”（14%）。
The difference is even more pronounced among voters who are disaffected with the party they backed in 2024 – who make up a quarter of each 2024 coalition: 49% of Trump voters who have an unfavorable view of the GOP today support Republican candidates for the House this year. While only 12% say they back Democrats, more than a third say either that they are “not sure” (25%) or prefer “another candidate” (14%).
相比之下，对民主党持负面看法的哈里斯支持者今年对民主党候选人的支持率则高得多：73%的人表示会支持民主党众议院候选人。
In contrast, Harris voters with a negative view of the Democratic Party are much more solid in their preferences for Democrats this year: 73% say they support Democratic House candidates.
在2024年的两大阵营中，这些对政党持负面看法的选民的选举参与度均低于对政党持正面看法的选民——但这一情况在特朗普的支持者中尤为突出。例如，对共和党持负面看法的特朗普支持者中，仅有36%的人认为今年11月的选举结果至关重要。相比之下，对民主党持负面看法的哈里斯支持者中，这一比例高达65%。
In both 2024 coalitions, these disaffected voters are less engaged with the election than those who have positive views of the parties – but that is particularly the case among Trump’s 2024 voters. For instance, just 36% of Trump voters with an unfavorable view of the GOP say the outcome this November really matters. By comparison, 65% of Harris voters with a negative view of the Democratic Party say it does.
如需进一步了解不同人口群体对候选人的支持情况，请查阅“按种族、年龄及其他人口特征划分的中期选举投票倾向”一节，并参考其中的详细数据表。
For more on demographic differences in candidate support, jump to “Midterm Vote Preferences by Race and Ethnicity, Age and Other Demographics” and explore the detailed tables.
特朗普的支持率持续下滑：目前仅有30%的美国人认可特朗普的总统履职表现，而68%的人表示不认可。这一比例较7月份下降了4个百分点，也创下了他第二任期内的最低支持率纪录。
Trump’s approval rating continues to drop Three-in-ten Americans now say they approve of Trump’s handling of his job as president, while 68% disapprove – down 4 percentage points from July and his lowest approval rating of his second term.
在其任期内，特朗普支持率的下滑主要集中在他2024年的选民群体中：如今仅有67%曾投票给特朗普的选民认可其工作表现，31%则表示不认可。而在其上任之初，这一比例曾高达95%。
Much of this decline in his approval ratings over the course of his term is among Trump’s own 2024 voters – 67% of validated Trump 2024 voters approve of his job performance today while 31% disapprove. At the beginning of his term, 95% approved.
在2024年支持特朗普的选民中，西班牙裔群体及年轻选民的支持率降幅尤为显著。
Some of the starkest declines have come among Hispanic and younger voters who backed Trump in 2024.
如需进一步了解特朗普的支持率情况及其在治理能力与应对各类议题方面的公众信任度，请阅读《特朗普支持率下滑：对他在经济及其他议题上的处理能力缺乏信心的美国人增多》。今年，特朗普对选民选择的影响力要大于四年前的乔·拜登。以往的中期选举中，选民的投票动机往往更多源于对现任总统的反对而非支持；而目前这种“反对”与“支持”的差距较四年前更为明显——当时仅有36%的选民表示投票是为了反对拜登，19%则表示是为了支持他。
For more on Trump’s approval ratings and confidence in his governing and handling of issues, read “Trump’s Approval Rating Drops as Fewer Americans Are Confident in His Handling of the Economy, Other Issues.”Trump is more of a factor in voters’ choices this year than Joe Biden was four years ago. While voters in most recent midterms have tended to be motivated more by opposition to the sitting president than support for him, the current gap is wider than it was four years ago – when 36% of voters saw their vote in opposition to Biden and 19% viewed it as in support of him.
其他主要发现：总体而言，包括倾向共和党的选民在内，仅有39%的共和党人对国家现状感到满意。这一比例为特朗普第二任期内的最低值——上任初期这一比例曾达65%，今年年初也还有54%。整体来看，仅有22%的美国人对国家现状感到满意，77%的人则表示不满意。
Other key findings Satisfaction with the state of the nation has dropped to 39% among Republicans overall (including those who lean to the GOP). This is the lowest of Trump’s second term (down from 65% shortly after he entered office and 54% at the beginning of this year). Overall, 22% of Americans say they are satisfied with the state of the nation, while 77% are dissatisfied.
大多数选民认为，民主制度的前景（73%）、医疗保健（68%）、教育（62%）、移民问题（59%）以及外交政策（57%）对其投票决策具有重要影响。与以往选举情况类似，移民问题对共和党选民而言更为关键——72%的共和党选民认为该问题极其重要，而民主党选民中这一比例则为53%。不过，相较于四年前，如今有更多民主党选民开始将移民问题视为重要议题。
Majorities of voters consider the future of democracy (73%), healthcare (68%), education (62%), immigration (59%) and foreign policy (57%) as important to their vote. As in past elections, immigration is a more central issue for Republican voters (72% say it’s very important) than for Democratic voters (53%) – but Democratic voters see it as a more important issue than they did four years ago.
关于本次选举中的核心议题，可参阅《经济问题是所有选民最关心的议题，但不同党派对其他议题的重视程度存在差异》一文。注：数据基于有效投票者样本，未回应者信息不予列出；此处仅列出获得至少50%选民提及的议题。完整分布情况及所有议题列表请参见总体统计结果。
For more on the top issues in the election, read “Economy ranks as top issue in midterms for all voters – but partisans differ over the importance of other issues.”Note: Based oned voters. No answer responses are not shown. Issues named by at least 50% of voters are shown here. Refer to topline for full distribution and list of items.
美国对伊朗采取的军事行动依然遭到广泛反对，多数美国民众认为这场冲突短期内难以平息。目前仅有三分之一的美国人认可特朗普处理该冲突的方式——这一比例较冲突爆发后的3月份（当时为37%）有所下降。约四分之三的美国人（77%）预计这场冲突还将持续六个月甚至更久。
The U.S. military action in Iran remains deeply unpopular, and most Americans think it won’t end soon. A third of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the conflict – down from 37% in March, shortly after it began. About three-quarters of Americans (77%) expect the conflict to last another six months or more.
大多数选民（61%）表示不喜欢那些支持在本地建设数据中心的当选官员；仅有8%的选民对此表示赞同。这种反感情绪在民主党选民中尤为普遍（75%表示反感），不过总体而言，共和党选民同样不欢迎支持建设数据中心的领导人——44%的共和党选民对此反感，仅有14%表示赞同。
Most voters (61%) say they dislike elected officials who support building data centers in their area; just 8% like this. While dislike is especially widespread among Democratic voters (75% dislike), on balance Republican voters also do not like leaders who support data centers (44% dislike, 14% like).