CNBC全美经济调查 2026年10月14日至18日 1,000名登记选民 ±3.1个百分点
美国数据透视：选民如何看待经济、通胀、AI和特朗普 史蒂夫·利斯曼和马歇尔·里策尔撰写随着美国中期选举临近，美国人对经济的悲观情绪几乎达到国家从疫情中复苏时的水平，而唐纳德·特朗普总统的经济支持率跌至历史最低点。
CNBC All-America Economic SurveyOct. 14-18, 2026 1,000 registered voters±3.1 pts ## America by the numbers: How voters feel about the economy, inflation, AI and Trump Steve Liesman and Marshall Ritzel With the U.S. midterm elections looming, Americans are nearly as gloomy about the economy as they were when the nation was emerging from the pandemic, and President Donald Trump’s economic approval rating is hitting an all-time low.
这些是最新CNBC全美经济调查的一些关键发现，显示了共和党候选人为何在中期选举中面临艰难战局。以下深入剖析数据，展示特朗普在部分关键选民群体中的支持如何走弱，并审视选民最关心的议题。
Those are some of the key findings in the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey that show why Republican candidates are facing an uphill battle in the midterm. Here’s a deep dive into the data that shows how Trump’s support among some key constituencies has weakened, and looks at the issues that matter most to voters.
40%的选民认可唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现；59%不认可，与7月持平。
approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing 40% of voters approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing as president; 59% disapprove, the same as in July.
第2张（共4张） 就经济而言，他的支持率更低：34%认可，65%不认可，低于7月的38%认可率。
2 of 4 On the economy his rating is lower: 34% approve and 65% disapprove, down from 38% approval in July.
第3张（共4张） 分歧按党派划分：82%的共和党人认可，32%的无党派人士和3%的民主党人认可。
3 of 4 The split is partisan: 82% of Republicans approve, 32% of independents and 3% of Democrats.
第4张（共4张） 按地区划分，认可率从东北部的34%至中西部的44%不等。
4 of 4 By region, approval runs from 34% in the Northeast to 44% in the Midwest.
特朗普第二任期内的支持率 随着选民对总统经济施政的不满情绪升温，更多受访者表示希望民主党在中期选举中控制国会。7月民主党享有的4个百分点优势，到10月扩大至7个百分点。
Trump’s approval in his second term As voter disapproval for the president’s handling of the economy has climbed, more survey respondents are saying they prefer that Democrats gain control of Congress in the midterm. A four-point advantage for Democrats in July expanded to a seven-point margin by October.
民主党人对选举的关注度高于共和党人。这些图表显示哪些群体在10分制中将投票关注度评为10分，同时也显示不同群体对选举潜在结果的担忧。
Interest among Democrats in the election is higher than Republicans. These slides show which groups rate their interest in the vote as a 10 on a 10-point scale, and also show what worries various groups have about the potential outcomes of the election.
今年国会选举的首选结果 ← 共和党控制 民主党控制 → 52%倾向于民主党控制国会，45%倾向于共和党控制（7月：49%对45%）。3名独立人士中有2名倾向民主党，比例为49%对33%。
Preferred outcome of this year’s congressional elections ← Republican-controlled Democrat-controlled → 52% prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress and 45% a Republican-controlled one (July: 49% to 45%). 2 of 3 Independents lean Democratic, 49% to 33%.
3个地区中，东北部是最倾向民主党的地区（民主党领先18个百分点）；中西部最为接近（共和党领先2个百分点）。
3 of 3 The Northeast is the most Democratic-leaning region (D+18); the Midwest is the closest (R+2).
中期选举：各群体的关注度与担忧 对经济的悲观看法在民主党人和独立人士中最为强烈。总体而言，仅有20%的受访者将经济评为优秀或良好。其中，仅3%的民主党人和16%的独立人士持此看法。此外，63%的美国人表示，他们不仅对当前经济状况悲观，对未来前景也持悲观态度。这一比例较7月调查上升了1个百分点。
The midterms: interest and fears, by group Downbeat views on the economy are most intense among Democrats and independents. Overall, only 20% of survey respondents rate the economy as excellent or good. Just 3% of Democrats and 16% of independents feel that way. What’s more, 63% of Americans say they are not only pessimistic about the current state of the economy, but about the outlook for the future as well. That’s up 1 percentage point from the July survey.
经济现状与未来 将经济评为优秀或良好 将经济评为优秀或良好 较7月的27%下降 2/7 3%的民主党人和16%的独立人士将经济评为优秀或良好；39%的共和党人持此看法。3/7 48%认为经济状况差，较41%上升。
The economy, now and next rate the economy excellent or good rate the economy excellent or good down from 27% in July 2 of 7 3% of Democrats and 16% of independents rate the economy excellent or good; 39% of Republicans do. 3 of 7 48% call it poor, up from 41%.
4/7 展望一年后，42%预期经济会变差，28%预期会变好；27%预期大体持平。
4 of 7 Looking a year ahead, 42% expect the economy to get worse and 28% better; 27% expect it to stay about the same.
5/7 综合来看，63%的人对当前经济和未来一年经济均持悲观态度。6/7 55%表示物价仍在以高于寻常的速度上涨。7/7 中西部选民最为乐观，达28%；东北部为15%。
5 of 7 Put together, 63% are pessimistic both about the economy now and about the year ahead. 6 of 7 55% say prices are still rising faster than usual. 7 of 7 Voters in the Midwest are the most positive, 28%; in the Northeast, 15%.
经济评分随时间变化 选民现在对政府腐败的担忧超过任何其他议题，包括高昂的食品杂货和汽油价格。此前，民主党进行了长达数月的信息传播努力，试图将普遍存在的经济不满与他们指称的唐纳德·特朗普总统及其共和党盟友的猖獗腐败联系起来。
Economic ratings over time Voters are now more concerned about government corruption than any other issue, including high grocery and gas prices. This follows a monthslong messaging effort by Democrats to link widespread economic dissatisfaction with what they allege is rampant corruption by President Donald Trump and his Republican allies.
值得注意的是，询问选民首要关切的问题将多个经济和成本相关议题分别列出，将本可能在合并为单一类别后排名更高的议题进行了细分。
To be sure, the question asking voters to name their top concerns lists several economy- and cost-related topics separately, subdividing an issue that might otherwise rank higher if lumped into a single category.
在许多关键议题上，选民表示认为民主党处理得更好，尤其在住房、汽油、食品和食品杂货价格方面，优势差距最大。
On many key issues, voters say they believe Democrats do a better job in addressing them, with the margin especially wide on the price of housing, gas, food and groceries.
议题及各党对其的掌控情况 国家面临的最重要议题（可选两项） 政府腐败（36%）和食品杂货成本（34%）位居议题榜首。
Issues and which party owns them Most important issues facing the country (two answers allowed) The cost of food and groceries Immigration and border security Government corruption (36%) and the cost of food and groceries (34%) top the list of issues.
2/2 民主党在住房（38% 对 27%）、汽油（37% 对 28%）和食品（44% 对 28%）问题上更受青睐；共和党在边境安全（49% 对 27%）问题上更受青睐。
2 of 2 Democrats are preferred on housing (38% to 27%), gas (37% to 28%) and food (44% to 28%); Republicans on border security (49% to 27%).
接受 CNBC 调查的受访者在被问及哪个党能更好地处理政府腐败问题时，给予民主党 4 个百分点的优势，即 35% 对 31%。无党派选民以 15 个百分点的差距认为民主党比共和党能更好地解决腐败问题——尽管这些受访者中有 41% 认为两党都不会做得好。
Respondents to the CNBC survey gave Democrats a 4-point edge over Republicans, 35% to 31%, when asked which party would do a better job dealing with government corruption. Independents, by a 15-point margin, said Democrats would address corruption better than Republicans – though 41% of those respondents think neither party would do a good job.
但调查受访者在一件事上达成了压倒性共识：民选官员，包括总统和国会议员，不应被允许个人持有或交易与联邦政府有合同往来的个别公司的股票。
But survey respondents overwhelmingly agreed on one thing: Elected officials, including the president and members of Congress, should not be allowed to personally own or trade stocks in individual companies that have contracts with the federal government.
更好地处理政府腐败 ← 共和党 民主党 → 将腐败列为首要议题 “将腐败列为首要议题”：将其列为两大最重要议题之一（Q7），358 名选民。小群体：无党派选民，120 名选民，误差范围约为 ±9 个百分点。
Better job dealing with government corruption ← Republican Party Democratic Party → Named corruption a top issue“Named corruption a top issue”: one of their two most important issues (Q7), 358 voters. Small group: Independents, 120 voters, margin of error about ±9 points.
在腐败问题上，民主党总体领先 4 个百分点，在将其称为首要议题的选民中领先 17 个百分点，在无党派选民中领先 15 个百分点，尽管 41% 的无党派选民表示两党都不会做得好。
On corruption, Democrats lead by 4 points overall, 17 among voters who call it a top issue, and 15 among independents, though 41% of independents say neither party would do a good job.
2/3 93% 表示民选官员不应被允许持有或交易与联邦政府有合同往来公司的股票；89% 表示在任总统的家属不应获得联邦合同。
2 of 3 93% say elected officials should not be allowed to own or trade stock in companies with federal contracts; 89% say a sitting president’s family should not get federal contracts.
3/3 跨党派一致：98% 的民主党人、90% 的无党派选民和 88% 的共和党人表示不应允许。
3 of 3 Across parties: 98% of Democrats, 90% of independents and 88% of Republicans say it should not be allowed.
该调查还深入探讨了竞选中的另外两个关键议题：伊朗战争是否值得，以及选民对人工智能的看法。这两个议题上都存在明显的党派分歧。
The survey also dug down on two other key issues in the race: Whether the war in Iran was worth it, and voter opinions on artificial intelligence. There was a clear partisan divide on both.
伊朗、人工智能与数据中心 美国对伊朗的军事行动值得吗，就……而言← 不值得 值得 → 破坏核武器计划 询问了半数样本（500名选民）；误差范围 ±4.38个百分点。
Iran, AI and data centers Is the U.S. military action against Iran worth it, when it comes to…← Not worth it Worth it → Disrupting nuclear weapons Asked of half the sample (500 voters); margin of error ±4.38 points.
63% 的受访者认为，就汽油价格上涨而言，对伊朗的军事行动不值得；就破坏伊朗核计划而言，53% 认为不值得，46% 认为值得。
63% say the action against Iran is not worth it when it comes to higher gas prices; on disrupting Iran’s nuclear program, 53% say not worth it and 46% worth it.
2/6 82% 的共和党人认为该行动值得，以破坏伊朗核计划；13% 的民主党人持此观点。
2 of 6 82% of Republicans say the action is worth it to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program; 13% of Democrats do.
3/6 52% 认为人工智能公司应暂停先进开发，直到国会通过监管法规；32% 认为应继续推进，以跟上中国步伐。
3 of 6 52% say AI companies should pause advanced development until Congress passes regulations; 32% say move forward to keep up with China.
4/6 63% 会反对在距家中 10 英里（约 16 公里）范围内建设人工智能数据中心；13% 会支持。
4 of 6 63% would oppose an AI data center within 10 miles of home; 13% would support one.
5/6 反对程度在各地大致相同：每个地区均为 60% 至 65%。
5 of 6 Opposition is about the same everywhere: 60% to 65% in every region.
6/6 在调查报告的各类社区中也大致相同：均为 60% 至 65%。
6 of 6 And it is about the same in every type of community the survey reports: 60% to 65%.
调查如何进行 来源： CNBC 全美经济调查，由 Hart Research Associates 与 Public Opinion Strategies 于 2026 年 10 月 14 日至 18 日实施。
How the survey was done Source: CNBC All-America Economic Survey, conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, Oct. 14-18, 2026.
2026 年 10 月 14 日至 18 日对 1,000 名登记选民进行全国性调查。误差范围 ±3.1 个百分点；群体及仅询问半数样本的问题误差范围较大（±4.38 个百分点）。
National survey of 1,000 registered voters, Oct. 14-18, 2026. Margin of error ±3.1 percentage points; larger for groups and for questions asked of half the sample (±4.38 points).
群体、地区和社区数据来自调查的交叉表。地图按调查报告的四大地区（东北部、南部、中西部、西部）为各州着色，采用美国人口普查局的区域划分；数据代表各地区整体，不代表任何单一州份。党派包含倾向该党者。数据经四舍五入。
Group, region and community figures are from the survey’s crosstabs. The maps shade states by the four regions the survey reports (Northeast, South, Midwest, West), drawn with the U.S. Census Bureau’s regional boundaries; the figures are for each region as a whole, not for any state. Party includes those who lean to one. Figures are rounded.