距离国会选举不足两周，根据CNBC最新发布的全美经济调查，美国人对经济的悲观程度几乎与国家从疫情中复苏时持平，而唐纳德·特朗普总统的经济支持率已跌至历史最低点。
With less than two weeks to go before the congressional elections, Americans are nearly as gloomy about the economy as they were when the nation was emerging from the pandemic, and President Donald Trump's economic approval rating is hitting an all-time low, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
十分之八的美国人将经济评价为“一般”或“差”，这一比例为2023年12月以来最高，也是周四发布的最新民调数据中显示共和党候选人在中期选举中面临艰难战局的多个不利信号之一。
Eight out of 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, the highest number since December 2023 and one of several ominous signs for Republicans in the new polling data released Thursday that show why their candidates are facing an uphill battle in the midterm.
对经济的悲观看法在民主党人和独立选民中最为强烈，但近几个月来，共和党人中也出现了明显的经济悲观情绪转向。总体而言，63%的公众对当前经济状况及前景持悲观态度，较7月调查上升1个百分点。但这一比例现在包含35%的共和党人，较7月跃升6个百分点，达到特朗普两个任期以来共和党人悲观情绪的最高水平。
Downbeat views on the economy are most intense among Democrats and independents, but there's been a strong move toward economic pessimism even among Republicans in recent months. Overall, 63% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the economy and the outlook, up one percentage point from the July survey. But that percentage now includes 35% of Republicans, up six points from July and the highest level of Republican pessimism of either of Trump's two terms.
共和党民调机构“公众舆论策略”合伙人迈卡·罗伯茨表示：“之所以出现这种情况，不是因为独立选民或民主党人变得更加悲观——而是因为共和党人变了。自特朗普执政以来，共和党人一直以微弱优势认为当前经济‘优秀’或‘良好’。而现在这种状况已被打破并发生了改变。”
"We got there not because of independents or Democrats getting more sour — it's because Republicans have," said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey. "Since Trump has been president, [Republicans] have held on to a small margin saying that the current economy is either excellent or good. And now that has kind of broken and changed." The survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found Americans preferring Democratic control of Congress by a 52% to 45% margin. The seven percentage point Democratic edge represents a three percentage point gain for Democrats from the July survey.
这项针对全美1000名登记选民的调查误差为正负3.1%，结果显示，美国人倾向于由民主党控制国会，支持率为52%对45%。民主党7个百分点的领先优势较7月调查扩大了3个百分点。
The poll contained other foreboding signs for Republicans as well. It showed 72% of Democrats highly interested in the midterm election on Nov. 3, compared to just 62% of Republicans. Women are 10 percentage points more interested in the election than men, and they prefer Democratic control of Congress by 22 points. Independents prefer Democratic control by a wide 49% to 33% margin. And the majority of survey respondents said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on many of the issues they singled out as their top concerns, including corruption and the cost of food and gas.
这项民调还显示出其他对共和党不利的迹象。结果显示，72%的民主党人对11月3日的中期选举非常感兴趣，而共和党人仅为62%。女性对选举的兴趣比男性高出10个百分点，她们倾向于民主党控制国会，领先优势达22个百分点。无党派人士倾向于民主党控制国会，以49%对33%的较大优势领先。而且，大多数受访者表示，在他们指出的首要关切问题上，包括腐败以及食品和汽油成本，民主党会比共和党做得更好。点击此处阅读完整调查结果。
Read the full survey results here.
在八个参议院竞争激烈的州，受访者倾向于民主党控制国会，领先4个百分点。特朗普在2024年总统大选中在这八个州合计领先10个百分点。
In the eight states with competitive Senate races, respondents prefer Democratic congressional control by 4 percentage points. Trump carried those eight states by a combined 10 points in the 2024 presidential election.
哈特合伙公司合伙人、该民调的民主党民调师杰伊·坎贝尔表示，调查显示“情况正在远离共和党或向民主党靠拢，无论你怎么看，这都会让我非常紧张，如果我是在这最后两周领导共和党竞选活动的话。”
The survey shows "things moving either away from Republicans or toward Democrats, depending how you want to look at it, in a way that would make me very nervous if I was leading Republican campaigns leading into these last two weeks," said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster for the poll.
尽管经济前景黯淡，特朗普的整体支持率保持稳定，但仅有40%表示赞同，59%表示不赞同。他目前的净支持率为-19个百分点，而一年前为-8个百分点。
Despite the economic gloom, Trump's overall approval rating has remained stable, though at just 40% approving and 59% disapproving. His current net approval of -19 percentage points compares with -8 a year ago.
更引人注目的是，总统的净经济支持率较7月上一次调查大幅下降了9个百分点。总统的经济支持率在三个月内从38%降至34%，不支持率从60%升至65%。-31个百分点的净经济支持率是特朗普两个任期中的最低点。65%的不支持率比前总统乔·拜登最差表现高出1个百分点，也是CNBC自贝拉克·奥巴马总统以来调查的所有总统中最高的。
More striking is the sharp nine-point drop in the president's net economic approval rating from just the last survey in July. The president's economic approval dropped to 34% from 38% in three months and disapproval rose to 65% from 60%. The net -31 economic approval is the lowest of either of Trump's two terms. The 65% disapproval rating is one percentage point higher than former President Joe Biden's worst showing and the highest for any president surveyed by CNBC going back to President Barack Obama.
政府腐败被36%的受访者列为首要关切，民主党在解决该问题上领先4个百分点。在食品和杂货成本这一第二重要议题上，民主党的领先优势从7月调查中的+7扩大至+16。民主党在保护民主以及应对高油价问题上也领先于共和党。
Government corruption was identified as the top concern by 36% of respondents, and Democrats hold a 4-point lead on addressing the issue. On the cost of food and groceries, the second most important issue, the Democratic lead widened to +16 from +7 in the July survey. Democrats also topped Republicans on protecting democracy as well as dealing with the high price of gas.
对选举最感兴趣的受访者中，将腐败和保护民主列为首要议题者占比较高，他们以较大优势倾向于民主党控制国会。
Among those most interested in the election are respondents who identify corruption and protecting democracy as top issues, and they prefer Democratic congressional control by wide margins.
共和党在边境安全和移民问题上继续保持强势优势，但移民问题上的领先优势从+15缩窄至+9。与此同时，民主党被认为在处理就业与失业问题以及伊朗问题上更有优势，伊朗问题的支持度从共和党领先+2反转为民主党领先+5。
Republicans continued to hold a strong advantage on border security and immigration, but the lead on immigration fell to +9 from +15. Democrats, meanwhile, are seen as better at handling the issues of jobs and unemployment and Iran, which flipped from +2 for Republicans to +5 for Democrats.
公众对伊朗战争的价值持续持怀疑态度。调查显示，仅46%的公众认为军事行动为破坏伊朗核能力发展而值得，低于4月的53%多数。而鉴于汽油价格上涨，仅35%的人认为军事行动值得。
The public continued to be skeptical of the value of the Iran war. The survey found just 46% of the public believe the military action was worth it to disrupt development of Iran's nuclear capabilities, down from a 53% majority in April. And just 35% say the military action was worth it given the rise in the price of gasoline.
虽然调查显示党派分歧依然深刻，但在腐败问题上几乎达成了一致。93%的人认为，当选官员（包括总统和国会议员）不应被允许个人持有或交易与联邦政府有合同往来的个别公司的股票。89%的人认为，现任总统直系亲属拥有或投资的公司不应被允许获得联邦政府合同。
While the survey showed continued deep divisions by party, there was near unity on the corruption issue. Ninety-three percent said elected officials, including the president and members of Congress, should not be allowed to personally own or trade stocks in individual companies that have contracts with the federal government. And 89% said companies owned by or invested in by a sitting president's immediate family members should not be allowed to recerive contracts from the federal government.
虽然腐败是一个主要议题，但物价显然是登记选民最关心的问题。将食品、汽油和住房成本的担忧加在一起，57%的受访者将其列为首要关切。80%的人表示物价正在上涨，比一年前上升了5个百分点，其中55%的人认为涨幅快于往常，也上升了5个百分点。在调查中，食品成本实际上超过了汽油，成为更大的担忧，比例为34%对23%。
While corruption was a top issue, prices are clearly top of mind for registered voters. Taken together, concern about the cost of food, gas and housing is the top concern for 57% of respondents. Eighty percent say prices are rising, up five percentage points from a year ago, with 55% saying they are rising faster than usual, also up five points. The cost of food actually eclipses gas as a greater concern in the survey 34% to 23%.
这是大多数主要人口群体的首要担忧，但在年收入3万美元或以下的人群以及美国民主社会主义者议程的支持者中最为突出。然而，对于那些不认为自己是“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）支持者的共和党人来说，这也是首要议题。
It's a top worry among most major demographic groups but is most elevated among those making $30,000 or less and supporters of the agenda of Democratic Socialists of America. Yet it's also the top issue for those Republicans who don't count themselves as MAGA supporters.
两位民调专家都对民主党可能取得的胜利规模持谨慎态度。POS的罗伯茨表示，这是“版图与势头”之间的较量。“全国范围内有多个迹象表明，选民倾向更倾向于民主党……但这种变化也相当集中，各党的基本盘都在巩固，‘巨变’取决于民主党能否翻转许多特朗普两年前大胜的选区和州，”他说。
Both pollsters were cautious about how extensive Democratic gains could be. Roberts from POS said it's a battle between "the map and momentum." "There are several indications nationally that the electorate is tilting more toward Democrats … but the movement is also fairly concentrated, each party's base is consolidating, and a 'big change' is dependent on Democrats flipping a lot of districts and states that Trump won handily just two years ago," he said.
坎贝尔看不到像1994年和2008年那样的“重组”选举，他表示：“这看起来像是回归常态——年轻选民和有色人种选民回归民主党阵营，并得到对‘特朗普经济学’不满的独立选民的助力。”他补充道：“在任何时刻，都没人指望民主党候选人会突然赢得15%的共和党选票。”
Campbell doesn't see a "realignment" election like in 1994 and 2008, saying, "This looks like a return to the mean—young voters and voters of color returning to the Democratic fold, bolstered by independents being fed up with Trumpenomics." He adds, "At no point did anyone expect that Democratic candidates would suddenly pull 15% of the Republican vote."