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通胀、就业与医疗:2026年美国选民在为什么投票?Inflation, jobs, and healthcare: What are Americans voting on in 2026?

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美国南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆(中左)在彭德尔顿举行的一场中期选举集会上迎接一名支持者,该集会由唐纳德·特朗普总统出席。(美联社照片)US Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., center left, greets a supporter ahead of a midterm rally with President Donald Trump, in Pendleton. (AP Photo)

11月3日的美国中期选举正逐渐成为对总统唐纳德·特朗普第二任期政绩的一次检验,不断上涨的生活成本、移民执法以及与伊朗的冲突正成为选民关注的重大问题。共和党人正在捍卫国会中的微弱多数优势,而民调显示选民对特朗普处理经济的方式感到不满,民主党在国会选举偏好投票中领先。

The November 3 US midterm elections are shaping up as a test of President Donald Trump’s second-term record, with rising living costs, immigration enforcement and the conflict with Iran emerging as major issues for voters. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in Congress as polls show dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy and a lead for Democrats in the congressional preference ballot.

路透社已将生活负担能力、移民和特朗普的支持率列为影响竞选最后阶段的三大主要议题。

Reuters has identified affordability, immigration and Trump’s approval ratings as three of the major issues shaping the final stretch of the campaign.

EXPRESS INFOGENIE · 美国政治 特朗普支持率:选民如何看待他的表现 对整体工作支持率以及分别对经济、生活成本和伊朗的评价所做的全国民调比较。

EXPRESS INFOGENIE · US POLITICS Trump approval ratings:How voters view his performance A comparison of national polling on overall job approval and separate assessments of the economy, cost of living and Iran.

民调快照 · 2026年10月 整体工作支持率 认可唐纳德·特朗普总统表现的比例。

POLL SNAPSHOT · OCTOBER 2026 Overall job approval Share who approve of Donald Trump’s performance as president.

| 调查日期:2026年10月15日至18日 样本:1,701名美国成年人 | | 调查日期:2026年10月8日至12日 样本:1,119名美国成年人;925名登记选民 | 具体议题评分 这些数字来自不同的调查问题,不能与整体工作支持率直接互换。

| Field dates: Oct 15–18, 2026 Sample: 1,701 US adults | | Field dates: Oct 8–12, 2026 Sample: 1,119 US adults; 925 registered voters | Issue-specific ratings These figures come from separate survey questions and are not directly interchangeable with overall job approval.

| 经济 · 支持率 27% 认可特朗普处理经济的方式 CNN / SSRS · 2026年10月15日至18日 · 1,701名美国成年人 | | 生活成本 · 不支持率 79% 不认可特朗普处理生活成本的方式 AP-NORC · 2026年10月8日至12日 · 1,119名美国成年人 | | 伊朗 · 不支持率 71% 不认可特朗普处理伊朗问题的方式 AP-NORC · 2026年9月24日至28日 · 2,140名美国成年人 | 如何解读这些数字 整体工作支持率询问受访者是否认可特朗普作为总统的表现。议题评分询问他如何处理某一具体问题。此处显示的伊朗数字为不支持率;CNN的经济和通胀数字为支持率,而AP-NORC的经济和生活成本数字为不支持率。请将这些指标分开看待。

| ECONOMY · APPROVAL 27% Approve of Trump’s handling of the economy CNN / SSRS · Oct 15–18, 2026 · 1,701 US adults | | COST OF LIVING · DISAPPROVAL 79% Disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living AP-NORC · Oct 8–12, 2026 · 1,119 US adults | | IRAN · DISAPPROVAL 71% Disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran AP-NORC · Sept 24–28, 2026 · 2,140 US adults | How to read the numbers Overall job approval asks whether respondents approve of Trump’s performance as president. Issue ratings ask how he is handling a specific subject. The Iran figure shown here is disapproval; the CNN economy and inflation figures are approval, while the AP-NORC economy and cost-of-living figures are disapproval. Keep these measures separate.

方法论 CNN / SSRS:1,701名美国成年人,2026年10月15日至18日。

Methodology CNN / SSRS: 1,701 US adults, Oct 15–18, 2026.

路透社 / 益普索:1,679名美国成年人,2026年10月23日至26日。

Reuters / Ipsos: 1,679 US adults, Oct 23–26, 2026.

美联社-NORC民调:1119名美国成年人,2026年10月8日至12日;关于伊朗议题的评分来自另一项调查,该调查涵盖2140名美国成年人,时间为2026年9月24日至28日。

AP-NORC: 1,119 US adults, Oct 8–12, 2026; issue ratings on Iran from a separate survey of 2,140 US adults, Sept 24–28, 2026.

来源:CNN/SSRS;路透社/益普索;美联社-NORC。发布时请附上原始民调报告链接。民调只是快照,而非预测。日期、样本群体和问题措辞各不相同。由于受访者未决定或未作答,百分比总计可能不足100%。

Sources: CNN / SSRS; Reuters / Ipsos; AP-NORC. Link to the original poll reports when publishing. Polls are snapshots, not forecasts. Dates, sample populations and question wording differ. Percentages may not total 100 because of undecided or no-answer responses.

EXPRESS INFOGENIE · 解读民调数据时应结合每项调查的问题措辞、实地调查日期和样本群体。

EXPRESS INFOGENIE · Poll data should be read with each survey’s question wording, field dates and sample population.

生活成本与能源价格上涨拖累选民 尽管特朗普在2024年总统竞选中承诺解决生活负担问题,但在本轮选举周期的多项民调中,选民始终将生活成本列为最关注的议题之一。根据美联社-NORC近期进行的一项调查,仅有26%的选民认可特朗普对经济的处理方式,这比前民主党总统乔·拜登在该议题上的最差评分还低两个百分点。

Cost of living and rising energy prices weigh on voters Despite Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign pledge to tackle affordability issues, voters have consistently ranked the cost of living among the top issues in several polls this electoral cycle. According to a recently conducted Associated Press-NORC survey, merely 26 per cent of voters approved Trump’s handling of the economy, which is two percentage points below former Democratic President Joe Biden’s worst ratings on the issue.

在路透社/益普索的一项民调中,选民还指出,汽油、食品、住房和医疗是立法者需要重点关注的几大家庭开支。自美国和以色列于2月28日对伊朗发动军事打击以来,美国汽油价格大幅上涨。根据AAA的数据,全国平均汽油价格较一年前上涨1.20美元,达到4.28美元。柴油平均价格较一年前上涨2.70美元,达到6.32美元。

In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, voters also highlighted that gasoline, food, housing, and healthcare are the top household bills that legislators need to focus on. Gas prices have shot up in America since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28. The national average price of gas, according to AAA, has risen $1.20 from a year ago to $4.28. The average cost of diesel has increased $2.70 from a year earlier to $6.32.

根据美国劳工统计局关于消费者价格的数据,与去年相比,食品杂货价格上涨了多达1.8%。与此同时,联邦住房金融局的数据显示,同期住房价格上涨了2.1%。

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data on consumer prices, in comparison to last year, grocery prices have climbed by up to 1.8 per cent. Meanwhile, housing prices spiralled 2.1 per cent over the same period, Federal Housing Finance Agency data showed.

医疗削减与补贴成为选举议题 医疗成本和联邦医疗支出也成为竞选议题。据路透社报道,一项由共和党支持的减税延期法案将使医疗补助计划及其他医疗项目的预计支出减少约1万亿美元。

Healthcare cuts and subsidies emerge as election issues Healthcare costs and federal health spending have also become campaign issues. A Republican-backed tax-cut extension reduced projected spending on Medicaid and other health programmes by roughly $1 trillion, according to Reuters.

民主党人还将延长《平价医疗法案》强化保费税收抵免作为2025年政府停摆期间的核心诉求。据路透社报道,这些补贴曾惠及约2400万美国人。随着选民准备选举新一届国会,这场争端使医疗保健可负担性持续受到关注。

Democrats also made the extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits a central demand during the 2025 government shutdown. The subsidies had benefited around 24 million Americans, Reuters reported. The dispute has kept healthcare affordability in focus as voters prepare to elect a new Congress.

移民打击行动面临公众抵制 即将到来的中期选举的标志性议题之一是移民,特朗普政府在执法和关闭边境方面一直积极主动。特朗普多次吹嘘关闭南部边境的影响是他最大的成就之一,甚至与拜登的表现进行比较。

Immigration crackdown faces public pushback One of the signature issues in the upcoming midterm elections is immigration, wherein the Trump administration has been proactive in enforcement and closing the borders. Trump has repeatedly boasted of the impact of his closure of the southern border as one of his biggest achievements, even making comparisons with the performance of Biden.

美国国土安全部的数据显示,与拜登政府时期相比,在西南边境被逮捕的移民下降了95%。据路透社报道,该部门进一步表示,整个财政年度边境巡逻队首次没有释放任何人。但真正登上头条并遭到美国公民抵制的,是联邦探员在缅因州、明尼苏达州和得克萨斯州以打击移民为名导致的致命遭遇。

Data from the Department of Homeland Security showed a 95 per cent drop in migrants apprehended at the southwest border compared with Biden’s administration. The department further said that there have been no releases by the Border Patrol for the entire fiscal year for the first time, Reuters reported. But it’s the fatal encounters in the guise of an immigration crackdown by federal agents in Maine, Minnesota, and Texas that have made headlines and received pushback from American citizens.

特朗普将伊朗和古巴带入中期选举竞选 周六在佛罗里达州的一场集会上,特朗普将伊朗和古巴带入他的竞选演讲,称美国将“从伊朗回来的路上处理古巴”,这可能指的是该岛国的政权更迭。这位美国总统一直在努力将对抗伊朗的战争列为美国人在11月3日投票中应当关注的顶级议题之一。

Trump brings Iran and Cuba into midterm campaign Bringing Iran and Cuba into his electoral speech during a rally in Florida on Saturday, Trump said the US would “take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran,” potentially referring to a regime change on the island. The US president has been continuously trying to make room for the war against Iran as one of the top issues which Americans should vote on in the November 3 polls.

特朗普在佛罗里达州南部的一场中期选举集会上对人群说:“我们从伊朗回来的路上会处理古巴。我们会稍微停留一下。实际上,我们对古巴要做的是,我们会从伊朗回来。那些漂亮的舰船。我们会经过古巴。我们会让其中一艘停在离海岸约50码的地方。他们会举起双手,然后我们会派马尔科·鲁比奥去收尾。”

“We’ll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran. We’ll do a little stopover. Actually, what we’re going to do with Cuba is we’re going to come back from Iran. Those beautiful ships. We’ll pass Cuba. We’ll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast. They’ll raise their hands, and then we’re going to send Marco Rubio in to finish up the game,” Trump told a South Florida midterm rally crowd.

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