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从生活负担能力到人工智能:驱动美国中期选举的议题From Affordability to AI, The Issues Driving the US Midterms

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威斯康星州欧克莱尔,8月11日初选期间一处投票站的投票亭。Voting booths at a polling location during a primary election in Eau Claire, Wisconsin on Aug. 11.

在美国11月3日的中期选举前夕,全国民调显示,大多数美国人对国家发展方向深感不满。

Ahead of the US midterm elections on Nov. 3, national polls show that most Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

经济焦虑是选民不满情绪的首要因素。许多美国人表示,他们难以负担基本生活开支。另一项令选民担忧的因素是一场不得人心的对伊朗战争,这场战争扰乱了全球石油供应,推高了汽油、取暖油和柴油的价格。其他主要关切还包括医疗费用、数据中心、移民和政府腐败。

Economic anxiety is at the fore of voters’ frustration. Many Americans say they’re struggling to afford basic living expenses. Also weighing on voters is an unpopular war with Iran that has disrupted global oil supplies and driven up the cost of gasoline, home heating and diesel. Other top concerns include healthcare costs, data centers, immigration and government corruption.

中期选举在总统四年任期的中途举行,决定国会的控制权。众议院所有435个席位和约三分之一的参议院席位将进行改选。共和党目前在两院均占据微弱多数。

The midterms, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, determine control of Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of Senate seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers.

随着唐纳德·特朗普总统入主白宫,其所在政党实现了对联邦政府的统一控制,这意味着该党极有可能承受选民愤怒的主要冲击。本选举周期,政治广告支出预计将达到创纪录的116亿美元,甚至超过2024年总统大选。共和党的支出超过民主党。尽管如此,民调显示民主党有望赢得众议院控制权,并在参议院拥有实质性的获胜机会。以下是推动本次选举的一些主要议题。

With President Donald Trump in the White House, his party has unified control of the federal government, which means it is likely to bear the brunt of voter anger. This election cycle, spending on political advertising is projected to reach a record $11.6 billion, surpassing even the 2024 presidential election. Republicans are outspending Democrats. Still, polls suggest Democrats are favored to win control of the House and have a meaningful shot at the Senate. Here’s a look at some of the top issues that are animating the elections.

加利福尼亚州托兰斯,9月一座加油站内展示无铅汽油和柴油价格的标牌。A sign displays the prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel at a gas station in Torrance, California in September.

经济几乎总是美国选举中的主导议题。根据皮尤研究中心9月28日至10月4日进行的一项调查,约84%的登记选民表示经济对他们的中期选举投票“非常重要”。根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院9月中旬进行的一项民调,以51%对45%的比例,选民表示他们更信任民主党而非共和党能把经济搞好。

The economy is almost always the dominant issue in US elections. About 84% of registered voters say the economy is “very important” to their midterm election vote, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4. By a 51%-45% margin, voters say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to do a good job handling the economy, according to a New York Times/Siena poll conducted in mid-September.

“负担能力”是2026年选举的主要热词,选民绝大多数通过家庭开支的棱镜来审视国家经济。10月24日,平均汽油价格为每加仑4.29美元,高于一年前的约3.06美元;9月份抵押贷款利率突破7%,为近两年来首次,此后基本持续攀升。这些成本正日益挤压人们的预算。

“Affordability” is a major buzzword of the 2026 election, and voters overwhelmingly view the national economy through the prism of household expenses. Average gasoline prices were $4.29 a gallon on Oct. 24, up from about $3.06 a year earlier; mortgage rates in September crossed 7% for the first time in almost two years and have largely continued to climb higher. Those costs are increasingly straining people’s budgets.

民主党候选人将物价上涨归咎于特朗普的关税和伊朗战争,并以结束这两项政策为竞选纲领。共和党候选人则吹捧特朗普2025年的减税法,该法给予小费收入、加班工资和社会保障退休收入减税优惠。

Democratic candidates blame Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war for rising prices and are campaigning to end both. Republican candidates tout Trump’s 2025 tax-cut law, which granted tax breaks for tipped employees, overtime work and Social Security retirement income.

根据皮尤研究中心的数据,约65%的美国人不赞成特朗普对美国在伊朗军事行动的处理,赞成者为33%,民主党候选人猛烈抨击这场战争不得人心、代价高昂且没有明确结束期限。战争也在共和党内部制造了裂痕。一些共和党候选人私下或公开与特朗普决裂,后者曾以“美国优先”为竞选平台并承诺避免新的军事冲突,令部分支持者失望。

About 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of US military action in Iran, compared with 33% who approve, according to Pew, and Democratic candidates have blasted the war as unpopular, costly and open-ended. The war has also created fissures within the Republican Party. Some Republican candidates have privately or publicly broken with Trump, who disappointed some supporters after campaigning for president on an “America First” platform and promising to avoid new military conflicts.

密西西比州温斯顿维尔附近一处农场的稻谷收割。A rice harvest on a farm near Winstonville, Mississippi.

得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿是其中一场最关键参议院竞选的共和党提名人,他在一段泄露的音频录音中表示,战争和高物价拖累了他的竞选活动。其他共和党候选人呼吁立即结束战争。“我一直是反对继续伊朗战争的主要且关键的投票者之一,因为我严肃对待此事,”密歇根州联邦众议员汤姆·巴雷特在10月6日的竞选辩论中表示,他所在的选区是全国竞争最激烈的众议院选战之一。

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee in one of the most consequential Senate races, said in a leaked audio recording that the war and high prices were a drag on his campaign. Other Republican candidates have called for the war to be brought to an immediate end. “I have been one of the leading and deciding votes against the continuation of the war in Iran because I take that seriously,” Representative Tom Barrett of Michigan, who’s in one of the most competitive House elections in the nation, said in a campaign debate on Oct. 6.

选民对政府的深度不信任贯穿始终。盖洛普(Gallup)9月初发布的一项民调显示,创纪录的89%美国成年人认为政府腐败普遍存在。这一激增在民主党选民中尤为显著:2026年,91%的民主党选民认为政府腐败普遍存在,而2024年特朗普的前任、民主党人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在白宫任内时,这一比例仅为57%。

A deep distrust of government courses through the electorate. A record-high 89% of US adults view government corruption as widespread, according to a Gallup poll released in early September. The surge was particularly pronounced among Democratic voters: 91% said government corruption was widespread in 2026, up from 57% in 2024, when Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden, a Democrat, was in the White House.

民主党候选人和部分共和党人将政府腐败与高物价挂钩,认为联邦立法者和官员是精英阶层,正在以普通美国人难以维持生计为代价让自己致富。禁止国会议员炒股的呼声日益高涨,且跨越党派界限。候选人提出的其他政府问责方案包括:限制国会议员和最高法院大法官的任期,以及限制国会议员卸任后成为游说人。

Democratic candidates and some Republicans have linked government corruption to high costs, arguing that federal lawmakers and officials are elites enriching themselves at the expense of ordinary Americans struggling to make ends meet. There are growing bipartisan calls to ban stock trading by members of Congress. Other government accountability proposals offered by candidates include term limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices and limitations on members of Congress becoming lobbyists when they leave office.

民主党人指出,特朗普在任期间的股票交易以及加密货币相关项目的收益,是总统利用职权谋取私人财务利益的例证。民主党人和部分共和党人谴责其司法部现已放弃的一项计划,该计划拟设立一笔18亿美元的“反武器化”基金,用于补偿声称因政治或个人原因遭拜登政府针对的受害者。

Democrats have pointed to Trump’s stock trading and earnings from cryptocurrency-related ventures while in office as examples of the president using his position for personal financial gain. Democrats and some Republicans condemned his Justice Department’s now-abandoned plan to create a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund to compensate victims who claim they were targeted by the Biden administration for political or personal reasons.

司法部对已故性犯罪者、金融家杰弗里·爱泼斯坦(Jeffrey Epstein)相关档案的处理激怒了受害者权益倡导者,并引发指控,称特朗普政府正在保护权势人物。

The Justice Department’s handling of files related to the late sex offender and financier Jeffrey Epstein angered victim advocates and sparked allegations that the Trump administration is protecting powerful individuals.

皮尤研究中心(Pew)于9月28日至10月4日进行的一项调查显示,85%的民主党选民和69%的共和党选民表示,民主的未来对他们在中期选举中的投票选择非常重要。

In a Pew survey conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 85% of Democratic voters and 69% of Republican voters said the future of democracy was very important to their vote in the midterms.

民主党领导人多次将特朗普描述为对民主构成生存威胁。他们指出,特朗普反复声称其在2020年总统大选中败给拜登是“舞弊”所致,并宣称邮寄投票充斥着欺诈。党领袖指责特朗普采用类似威权主义的手段,在社交媒体和政治活动中用充满敌意的语言恐吓政治对手和少数群体。特朗普于10月14日在亚利桑那州的一次竞选集会上表示,向媒体泄露政府信息的人“应该被枪毙”。

Democratic leaders have repeatedly characterized Trump as an existential threat to democracy. They’ve pointed to his repeated false claims that his 2020 presidential election loss to Biden was “rigged” and that voting by mail is riddled with fraud. Party leaders accuse Trump of employing authoritarian-like tactics in intimidating political opponents and minority groups with hostile language on social media and at political events. Individuals who leak government information to the media “should be shot,” Trump said on Oct. 14 at a campaign rally in Arizona.

堪萨斯州帕克城,10月19日唐纳德·特朗普总统在一场竞选活动上。President Donald Trump during a campaign event in Park City, Kansas on Oct. 19.

“我们的总统正在撕碎我们的民主”,而“国会共和党人只是坐视不管,不制止这场混乱”,加利福尼亚州民主党州参议员迈克·麦奎尔在10月6日的一场竞选辩论中说。他被看好将在11月3日赢得一个众议院席位。

“Our president is shredding our democracy” and “Republicans in Congress simply sit idly by, and don’t stop the chaos,” California Democratic State Senator Mike McGuire, who’s favored to win a House seat on Nov. 3, said at a campaign debate on Oct. 6.

然而,在竞争最激烈的选战中,民主党候选人公开淡化对特朗普进行第三次弹劾的可能性,将竞选纲领的重心放在降低开支上。“任何形式的腐败都必须根除,”新罕布什尔州民主党联邦众议员克里斯·帕帕斯在10月11日哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)的《面对国家》节目中说,他正在竞选参议员。“但我们必须像激光一样聚焦于民众当前面临的经济挑战。”

However, Democratic candidates in the most competitive elections have publicly downplayed a potential third impeachment of Trump and centered their campaign platforms on lowering costs. “Any sort of corruption has to be rooted out,” Representative Chris Pappas, a New Hampshire Democrat running for the Senate, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program on Oct. 11. “But we have to focus like a laser on the economic challenges that people are living right now.”

根据凯撒家庭基金会(KFF)于10月6日发布的一项健康追踪民调,约六成选民担心医疗费用,约半数选民表示,中期选举候选人谈论这一议题“极其重要”。该调查还发现,以42%对22%的比例,选民更信任民主党比共和党更能妥善处理医疗费用问题。与凯撒家庭基金会4月发布的一项调查相比,民主党的这一20个百分点优势,领先差距更大。

About six in ten voters are worried about healthcare costs, and about half say it is “extremely important” for candidates in the midterm elections to talk about that issue, according to a KFF Health Tracking Poll released Oct. 6. That survey also found that voters, by a 42% to 22% margin, trust the Democratic Party to do a better job handling healthcare costs than the Republican Party. That 20-point advantage for Democrats is a wider gap for the party than in a survey from KFF released in April.

许多进步派的民主党候选人主张建立由政府运营的全民健康保险体系,以取代私人健康保险。一些在竞争激烈的选区中寻求当选的民主党中间派,如华盛顿州的众议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯(Marie Gluesenkamp Perez)和弗吉尼亚州的前众议员伊莲恩·卢里亚(Elaine Luria),认为这一宏大提案不切实际。他们表示,党应当把重点放在对《平价医疗法案》(Affordable Care Act)的渐进式改进上,而不是推行该法案的全面改革。

Many progressive Democratic candidates have campaigned for a government-run, universal health insurance system that would replace private health insurance. Some Democratic centrists seeking politically competitive seats, such as Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state and former Representative Elaine Luria of Virginia, say that sweeping proposal is unrealistic. They say the party should focus instead on incremental improvements to the Affordable Care Act, Democrats’ healthcare overhaul signed into law by then-President Barack Obama in 2010.

《平价医疗法案》是时任总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)于2010年签署的民主党医疗改革法案。

Democrats have campaigned against the Republican-led 2025 tax law’s reductions in spending on Medicaid, a joint federal and state program that serves low-income and disabled Americans.

民主党一直在反对共和党主导的2025年税法中削减对医疗补助(Medicaid)的支出。医疗补助是联邦与州共同资助的项目,为低收入和残障美国人提供服务。

Republican candidates have focused more on targeting healthcare fraud.

共和党候选人则更侧重于打击医疗欺诈。他们将全民政府运营的体系描述为等同于政府接管医疗,进而导致税收上升。

They describe a universal government-run system as tantamount to a government takeover of healthcare that would hike taxes.

在拜登总统任期内,来自墨西哥的移民跨境潮激增,这帮助特朗普在2024年选举中击败拜登的副总统卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)获胜。然而,特朗普第二任期内的大规模联邦移民严打,包括加大驱逐力度,引发了公众反弹,并呼吁废除或缩减美国移民与海关执法局(U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement),即便在2024年支持特朗普的州和选区也出现了此类呼声。

A surge in migrant crossings into the US from Mexico during Biden’s presidency helped power Trump’s 2024 election victory over Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris. But a sweeping federal immigration crackdown, including ramped-up deportations, in Trump’s second term triggered a public backlash and calls to abolish or scale back the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency — including in states and districts that favored Trump in 2024.

在这些选区中,西班牙裔选民在2024年大幅转向特朗普,但随后又回归民主党,能够左右选举结果。根据NBC新闻/Telemundo于9月21日至28日进行的民调,西班牙裔选民对特朗普的移民政策不满意的比例为69%对30%,对边境安全不满意的比例为58%对39%。

In some of those districts, Hispanic voters, who shifted sharply toward Trump in 2024 but have since moved back toward Democrats, can swing election outcomes. They overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration (by 69% to 30%) and border security (by 58% to 39%), according to an NBC News/Telemundo poll conducted Sept. 21-28.

大多数共和党候选人捍卫特朗普的移民政策,并警告选民民主党将回归拜登时代的“开放边境”。一些在共和党倾向选区参选的民主党候选人在该问题上走温和路线,既支持对非法入境实施严格限制,又提出为无证移民入籍扩大合法途径。堪萨斯州民主党牧师亚当·汉密尔顿正试图击败共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔,该农业州严重依赖移民劳动力,他称拜登的边境安全政策是一场“灾难”。

Most Republican candidates have defended Trump’s immigration policies and warned voters that Democrats would return to Biden-era “open borders.”Some Democratic candidates running in Republican-leaning districts have charted a moderate path on the issue, mixing support for strict limits on illegal entry with proposals to expand legal pathways for undocumented immigrants to achieve citizenship. Adam Hamilton, a Kansas Democratic pastor vying to unseat Republican Senator Roger Marshall in an agricultural state that relies heavily on immigrant labor, called Biden’s border-security policies a “disaster.”

北卡罗来纳州民主党众议员唐·戴维斯正在一个2024年特朗普以12个百分点优势获胜的选区寻求连任,他赞扬了总统的边境执法政策,但表示政府需要做更多工作,加强在入境口岸的筛查,以查获芬太尼和其他违禁品。

Representative Don Davis, a North Carolina Democrat seeking reelection in a district that favored Trump by 12 percentage points in 2024, praised the president’s border enforcement policy but said the government needs to do more to increase screenings at ports of entry to detect fentanyl and other contraband.

AI数据中心、即支持人工智能系统的仓库式计算设施,引发了强烈反对,并成为2026年选举中一个两党共同关注的焦点。

AI data centers, the warehouse-like computing facilities that support artificial intelligence systems, have aroused intense opposition and become a bipartisan flashpoint in the 2026 election.

许多美国人对数据中心的能源、水资源和土地消耗影响表示担忧。此外,公众对人工智能更广泛的不安和抵制往往表现为对数据中心的反对。

Many Americans express concerns about data centers’ energy, water and land consumption impacts. Additionally, the broader public unease and pushback against artificial intelligence often manifests as opposition to data centers.

根据皮尤研究中心的数据,民主党人比共和党人更担忧AI在日常生活中的作用及其夺走工作的潜力。特朗普支持扩大数据中心和AI,认为美国需要在一种正在重塑社会的新兴技术领域超越中国。解析:数据中心反弹让共和党陷入被动来自两大主要政党的许多国会候选人都在竞选广告中强调反对建设新数据中心。其中包括俄亥俄州前参议员谢罗德·布朗,他是一场可能左右参议院控制权的参议院选举中的民主党提名人。

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be concerned about the role of AI in daily life and its potential to take jobs, according to Pew. Trump supports the expansion of data centers and AI, arguing that the US needs to outpace China in an emerging technology that is reshaping society. Explainer: Data Center Backlash Has Republicans on the Back Foot Many candidates for Congress from both major parties have emphasized their opposition to the construction of new data centers in campaign advertising. They include former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the Democratic nominee in a Senate election that could sway control of the chamber.

布朗抨击现任共和党参议员乔恩·哈斯德,指责后者在担任俄亥俄州副州长期间,利用税收优惠吸引数据中心落户该州。

Brown attacked incumbent Republican Jon Husted for helping lure data centers to the state with tax incentives when he was Ohio’s lieutenant governor.

跨性别者权利是2026年竞选中的一个显著楔子议题,正如2024年一样,当时特朗普的总统竞选活动因攻击哈里斯支持跨性别囚犯接受性别重置手术而受益。“卡马拉支持他们/她们。特朗普总统支持你”,这是特朗普一则电视广告的标语,民主党和共和党竞选官员均表示该广告颇具成效。

Transgender rights is a prominent wedge issue in the 2026 campaign, just as it was in 2024, when Trump’s presidential campaign benefited from targeting Harris’s support for transgender inmates having access to gender reassignment surgery. “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you,” was the tagline in a Trump TV ad that Democratic and Republican campaign officials said was effective.

共和党在中期选举的广告中强调反对跨性别运动员参加女子体育比赛。根据《第十九修正案》/YouGov于9月18日至24日进行的一项调查,45%的美国成年人更倾向于投票给支持禁止跨性别运动员参加女子和女童运动队的候选人,而只有20%的人倾向于投票给反对禁令的候选人。一些文化保守地区的民主党候选人已播放竞选广告,表明他们反对跨性别运动员参加女子体育比赛。

Republican ads in the midterm elections emphasize opposition to transgender athletes’ participation in women and girls’ sports. According to a Sept. 18-24 survey from The 19th/YouGov, 45% of US adults are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports banning transgender athletes from women’s and girls’ sports teams, compared with 20% who favor candidates opposing bans. Some Democratic candidates in culturally conservative areas have aired campaign ads stating their opposition to transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.

老年美国人在中期选举中的投票率不成比例地高,他们中的许多人担心社会保障社会保险计划的稳定性,该计划向退休工人、已故工人的幸存家庭成员和残疾人提供每月收入。支付退休和遗属福利的主要基金预计将在2032年耗尽其累积储备,如果国会不干预,届时进项税收仅能支付78%的福利。

Older Americans vote in disproportionate numbers in midterm elections, and many of them are concerned about the stability of the Social Security social insurance program, which provides monthly income to retired workers, surviving family members of deceased workers, and disabled individuals. The main fund that pays for retirement and survivor benefits is projected to exhaust its accumulated reserves in 2032, and incoming tax revenue will only be able to pay 78% of benefits if Congress doesn’t intervene.

社会保障制度的资金主要来源于一项强制性工资税;该税收适用于2026年劳动者收入的前184,500美元部分。调查显示,公众普遍支持提高或取消这一收入上限,以增强社会保障制度的财政稳定性。

Social Security is funded primarily by a compulsory payroll tax that applies to the first $184,500 of workers’ earnings in 2026, and surveys show widespread public support for raising or eliminating that cap to shore up the program’s finances.

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