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中期选举:你的问题,我们来解答Midterms: Your questions, answered

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今年夏天,我们邀请您提交关于美国中期选举最迫切的问题。您询问了选民资格核查、对选举官员或结果的威胁、重划选区的影响,以及哪些竞选最有可能决定国会控制权。

Over the summer, we asked you to submit your most pressing questions about the US midterm elections. You asked about voter eligibility checks, threats to election officials or results, the effects of redistricting and which races are most likely to determine control of Congress.

以下是路透社记者对这些问题的回答,这些回答也刊登在《美国政治新闻通讯》中。相似的问题已合并并为清晰起见进行了编辑。

Here are Reuters reporters’ answers to these questions, which were also published in the Politics US Newsletter. Similar questions have been combined and edited for clarity.

如果您有更多与中期选举或其他美国政治话题相关的问题,请发邮件至 campaigntrail@thomsonreuters.com。

If you have more questions related to the midterms or other topics related to US politics, write to campaigntrail@thomsonreuters.com.

回答者:内森·莱恩,政治记者,以及杰森·兰格,政治数据记者 我们的路透社/益普索民调显示,因与伊朗的战争而加剧的物价上涨,对中期选举环境产生了超出寻常的影响。约一半选民表示,生活成本是国会选举中唯一最重要的问题,相比之下,约五分之一选民提到民主规范,约十分之一选民指出移民问题。

Answered by: Nathan Layne, Politics Reporter, and Jason Lange, Politics Data Reporter Our Reuters/Ipsos polling suggests that rising prices, exacerbated by the war with Iran, are having an outsized impact on the midterm environment. About half of voters say the cost of living is the single most important issue in the congressional elections, compared with roughly 1 in 5 who cite democratic norms and about 1 in 10 who point to immigration.

这种对通胀的关注延伸至主导家庭预算的主要开支,从住房和医疗保健到食品和燃料。受冲突推高的汽油价格,以及咖啡和牛肉等杂货主食的高昂成本,在政治上具有特别强的效力,因为选民在加油站和收银台会经常遇到它们。

That focus on inflation extends across the major expenses that dominate household budgets, from housing and healthcare to food and fuel. Gasoline prices, pushed higher by the conflict, and the elevated cost of grocery staples such as coffee and beef are particularly potent politically because voters encounter them regularly at the pump and checkout counter.

从今年夏天开始,我们的民调显示,十年来首次有选民认为民主党比共和党更善于管理经济。在这种背景下,共和党战略家和党内官员表示,他们正试图将中期选举定性为两党之间的选择,将民主党描绘为日益受社会主义思想影响,而非对当前经济状况的公投。

Starting this past summer, our polling has shown that, for the first time in a decade, voters view Democrats as better stewards of the economy than Republicans. Against that backdrop, Republican strategists and party officials say they are seeking to frame the midterms as a choice between two parties, casting Democrats as increasingly influenced by socialist ideas, rather than a referendum on current economic conditions.

由杰森·兰格(Jason Lange)政治数据记者回答 民主党在参议院选举中面临艰难战役,他们需要净增四个席位。他们必须守住密歇根州和新罕布什尔州——这两场竞争都很激烈——同时还要从六个共和党现任议员把持的竞争州中夺回四个席位:阿拉斯加、缅因、北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄、爱荷华和得克萨斯——后两个州已有十多年未曾选出民主党参议员。

Answered by Jason Lange, Politics Data Reporter Democrats face an uphill fight to win the Senate, where they need to pick up four seats. They would have to hold Michigan and New Hampshire – both tight races – while flipping four of six Republican-held seats in play: Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas – the last two of which haven't elected Democrats to the Senate in over a decade.

共和党在众议院面临更大压力,其218名成员在435个席位的议院中仅占最微弱多数。全国约有三十多个选区竞争激烈。民主党最有希望翻盘的席位包括共和党把持的内布拉斯加州第2选区、新泽西州第7选区和加利福尼亚州第48选区,这些选区的边界重新划分后有利于民主党。民主党还必须防守俄亥俄州第9选区和北卡罗来纳州第1选区,这两个选区重新划分后有利于共和党。

Republicans face more pressure in the House, where their 218 members hold the smallest possible majority in the 435-seat chamber. About three dozen races nationwide are competitive. Democrats' best pickup chances include Republican-held seats in Nebraska's 2nd District, New Jersey's 7th and California's 48th, where district boundaries were redrawn to favor Democrats. Democrats must also defend Ohio's 9th and North Carolina's 1st, both redrawn to favor Republicans.

由约瑟夫·阿克斯(Joseph Ax)国家事务记者回答 根据联邦法律,每个州必须保留一份全州范围的注册选民名单,并定期对其进行维护,以剔除不合格选民。此外,美国法律要求在联邦选举中通过邮件注册的首次投票者在投票站出示某种形式的身份证明,如驾照、工资单或水电费账单。

Answered by Joseph Ax, National Affairs Correspondent Under federal law, every state must retain a statewide list of registered voters and perform regular maintenance on it to remove ineligible voters. In addition, US law requires first-time voters in federal elections who registered by mail to show some form of identification at the polls, such as a driver’s license, a paycheck or a utility bill.

许多州实施了额外的、更严格的程序来核实资格,例如照片身份证要求,这些政策在各州间差异很大。邮寄选票——特朗普频繁毫无根据地攻击其不可靠——通常通过将信封上的签名与档案中的签名进行比对来核查。

Many states have imposed additional, more stringent procedures to verify eligibility, such as photo ID requirements, and those policies vary significantly among states. Votes cast by mail, which have come under frequent baseless attacks from Trump as unreliable, are typically checked by comparing the signature on the envelope with the one on file.

所有现有证据表明,不合格投票(包括非公民投票)极为罕见。路透社今年的一项调查发现,仅有129起非公民因非法投票被联邦起诉的案件;许多案件似乎源于选民困惑或行政错误,而非故意欺诈。

All available evidence indicates that ineligible voting, including noncitizen voting, is exceedingly rare. A Reuters investigation this year found just 129 cases in which noncitizens were federally charged with voting illegally; many appeared to stem from voter confusion or administrative errors, rather than intentional fraud.

保守派智库传统基金会维护着一份选民欺诈数据库,其中收录了1982年至2025年间的1619起案件,即在该期间的总统大选中,平均每817625张选票才出现一起案件。

The conservative Heritage Foundation think tank maintains a voter fraud database that includes just 1,619 cases from 1982 to 2025, or one for every 817,625 votes cast in a presidential election during that time.

由彼得·艾斯勒、内德·帕克、琳达·苏和迈克·斯佩克特回答 路透社采访了来自两党的50多名州和地方选举官员,其中包括十几位州务卿——他们是各州的最高选举官员。几乎所有受访者表示,他们正在采取新策略,为应对中期选举前可能出现的政治干预、错误信息、网络攻击甚至暴力威胁做准备。这些努力跨越了大大小小的辖区,涵盖了由共和党和民主党控制的地区。例如在密歇根州,州政府官员正就联邦政府若要求接触投票机时的适当应对方式,向地方书记官提供建议。

Answered by Peter Eisler, Ned Parker, Linda So andMike Spector Reuters interviewed more than 50 state and local election officials from both political parties, including a dozen secretaries of state, the top election officials in their states. Nearly all said they are adopting new strategies to prepare for political interference, misinformation, cyberattacks and even threats of violence ahead of the midterms. Their efforts span jurisdictions large and small, in areas controlled by Republicans and Democrats. In Michigan, for example, state officials are advising local clerks on the appropriate response if the federal government demands access to voting machines.

准备工作主要分为三类。十多位受访者表示,一些选举官员正在聘请律师或寻求法律技能支持。两倍于此数量的官员表示,他们正在扩大公众宣传和社交媒体活动,以反击关于邮寄投票或投票机可靠性的错误信息。大多数受访官员表示,他们正争分夺秒填补特朗普政府削减协助保障选举免受网络攻击和物理安全威胁项目留下的空白。

Preparations fall into three categories. Some election officials are hiring lawyers or seeking legal skills, as over a dozen interviewees said. Twice that many election officials said they are expanding public outreach and social media campaigns to counter misinformation around the reliability of mail-in voting or voting machines. Most of the interviewed officials said they are scrambling to fill gaps left by the Trump administration’s cuts to programs that help safeguard elections from cyberattacks and physical security threats.

这包括持续加固选举办公室,安装摄像头系统和防弹玻璃——这一趋势始于特朗普对2020年大选败给拜登提出异议之后,当时特朗普支持者对选举工作人员发出了暴力威胁。

That includes ongoing work to fortify election offices with camera systems and bulletproof glass – a trend that began after Trump disputed his loss to Biden in the 2020 election, prompting violent threats by Trump supporters against election workers.

请阅读我们的报道,了解威斯康星州、北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、科罗拉多州和缅因州的选举官员为应对上述潜在情形所采取的更多具体准备案例。

Read our reporting on more specific examples of what election officials are doing in preparation for such potential scenarios in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Colorado and Maine.

过去一年重新划分选区的斗争尘埃落定,九个州已敲定新的美国众议院选区地图。共和党是明显的赢家:该党在这些州的15个选区中获得优势,而民主党仅在6个选区改善了胜算。然而,民主党依然被看好赢得众议院控制权,特朗普疲软的支持率拖累了其党内候选人。

Nine states have new US House maps in place after the redistricting war that unfolded over the last year. Republicans were the clear winners: the party gained an advantage in 15 districts across those states, while Democrats improved their chances in only 6 districts. However, Democrats remain favored to win the House, with Trump’s weak approval ratings dragging down his party’s candidates.

在全国435个众议院席位中,约有40个席位将在11月的选举中展开角逐,这意味着极少数选民很可能将决定哪个党派控制众议院。

There are about 40 seats in play in November out of 435 nationwide, meaning that a small fraction of voters will likely determine which party controls the House.

尽管部分选区地图仍面临法律挑战,但这些诉讼似乎都不太可能在11月大选前改变任何选区界线。

While some of the maps still face legal challenges, none of the litigation appears likely to alter any district lines ahead of November’s election.

路透社记者比安卡·弗劳尔斯、大卫·胡德-努尼奥和阿利·J·莱文绘制了重新划分选区如何影响田纳西州孟菲斯社区的地图。

Reuters reporters Bianca Flowers,David Hood-Nuño and Ally J. Levine mapped how redistricting has affected communities in Memphis, Tennessee.

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