根据最新的民意调查结果，2024年投票给特朗普的选民中，表示对11月大选“非常热情”的比例低于投票给副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的选民。
Fewer voters who backed President Trump in 2024 than those who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris say they are “very enthusiastic” to cast ballots in November, according to new polling.
路透社与Ipsos联合发布的最新调查显示：在特朗普的支持者中，只有30%的人表示对中期选举“非常热情”，21%的人表示较为热情；约10%的人对投票持观望态度，另有10%的人表示“非常不热情”；还有30%的人既不热情也不反感，或者干脆没有回答这个问题。
The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, released Thursday, found 30 percent of Trump voters say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote in the midterms, while 21 percent share a moderate rate of excitement. Just under 10 percent are lukewarm about voting and 10 percent say they are “very” unenthusiastic.
相比之下，哈里斯的支持者中有48%的人表示对11月大选“非常热情”，18%的人表示比较热情；对投票持消极态度的哈里斯支持者较少，其中7%的人持观望态度，6%的人表示“非常不热情”；约20%的人表示对选举既不热情也不反感，或者没有回答这个问题。
Another 30 percent say they are neither enthusiastic nor unenthusiastic, or skipped the question. By comparison, 48 percent of Harris voters say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote in November, followed by 18 percent who are just enthusiastic. Fewer Harris voters are unenthusiastic to vote, with 7 percent lukewarm and 6 percent “very” unenthusiastic.
这些调查结果发布几天前，民意调查机构还发现：自9月份以来的民意调查显示，特朗普的支持率一直稳定在32%左右，但仍有65%的受访者表示不赞成他的执政方式。
About 20 percent say they are neither or did not answer. These results come days after the pollsters found Trump’s approval rating remains steady at 32 percent since its September poll, with 65 percent saying they do not approve of his handling of the presidency.
特朗普在2024年通过争取德克萨斯州等州的西班牙裔选民的支持而获得的一些优势正在减弱——此前有24%的西班牙裔选民表示认可特朗普的表现；共和党候选人在这些州的处境稍好一些，有26%的西班牙裔选民表示支持共和党候选人。
Gains that Trump made with support from Hispanic voters in states like Texas in 2024 have also been on the decline, with 24 percent of respondents previously telling the polling firm that they approve of Trump’s job performance. GOP candidates fare slightly better with 26 percent of Hispanic voters saying they back Republican candidates seeking wins in November.
随着特朗普的支持率持续下滑，共和党在中期选举中的前景变得黯淡。特朗普仍不断呼吁选民“假装他仍在参与选举”。此外，在伊朗战争进入第八个月之际，他还试图淡化人们对油价上涨的担忧，称高油价是“阻止伊朗政权发展核武器所需的‘非常低廉的代价’”。
The drop-off in the president’s support has cast a dark shadow over Republican prospects going into the midterms as Trump continues to urge voters to pretend he is “on the ballot” in the election. He has also tried to downplay concerns over rising gas prices over the course of the Iran war as it stretches into its eighth month. He has said that the high cost of gas is a “very inexpensive price to pay” to prevent the regime from developing and obtaining a nuclear weapon.
总统在周一内布拉斯加的一场集会上也表达了类似的观点，称伊朗政权有可能摧毁洛杉矶和圣地亚哥；这一言论激怒了加州的民主党人，他们要求总统公开道歉。加州州长加文·纽森（民主党）表示，这种言论已经触及了需要依据美国宪法第25条修正案采取行动的严重程度。特朗普在周三晚上的讲话中再次坚持了自己的观点。
The president similarly said so at a Nebraska rally on Monday when he said the Iranian regime could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego, enraging California Democrats who called on him to apologize. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said the remark rises to the level of invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump doubled down on the comments on Wednesday evening.
在竞选活动中，特朗普曾多次提到：如果爆发伊朗战争，他所在的共和党可能会失去国会的一个或两个议院的控制权。本月早些时候，他还对记者表示，这场冲突“应该有助于”提升他所在政党的胜算。
The possibility that the Iran war could cost Trump and Republicans one or both chambers of Congress is one the president has raised on the campaign trail. Earlier this month, he told reporters that the conflict “should help” his party’s chances.
这项由路透社和Ipsos联合进行的调查于9月30日至10月5日期间进行，共有2,848名受访者参与。调查的误差范围为3个百分点。
The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted Sept. 30 through Oct. 5 and included 2,848 respondents. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.