大多数美国人认为，如果共和党在中期选举中失利，特朗普不会接受选举结果。
Most Americans are not confident Trump will accept midterm results if GOP loses.
根据 ABC News、Washington Post 和 Ipsos 共同开展的一项民意调查，约六成美国人相信中期选举会公正、准确地举行；这一比例在已登记的选民中上升到了超过三分之二。因此，近四成美国人对选举的公正性和准确性表示怀疑。
About 6 in 10 Americans are confident that the midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, rising to over two-thirds of registered voters. But that means nearly 4 in 10 Americans and about 3 in 10 voters are not confident elections will be conducted fairly and accurately, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
在民主党人和共和党人中，也有类似比例的人（分别为 70% 和 67%）对选举的公正性和准确性持乐观态度；独立选民中持相同观点的比例略低（51%），而共和党支持者中则有近三分之一的人对此表示怀疑。
Similar majorities of Democrats (70%) and Republicans (67%) are confident that midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately. A slimmer majority of independents (51%) say the same; 47% of independents are not confident midterm elections will be conducted fairly while just under a third of partisans say the same.
大约三分之二的美国人相信中期选举的选票会被准确统计（65%），其中 26% 的人表示非常确信这一点；在已登记的选民中，这一比例上升到了 72%。这些调查结果与 ABC News 和 Washington Post 在 2023 年总统选举及 2022 年中期选举前进行的民意调查结果大致一致，不过现在表示“非常确信选票会被准确统计”的人比例有所下降。
About two-thirds of Americans are confident that midterm votes will be counted accurately (65%), including 26% who are very confident. Confidence rises to 72% among registered voters. Those findings are roughly in line with results from ABC News/Washington Post polls conducted ahead of the 2023 presidential election and 2022 midterms, though fewer now say they are very confident.
特朗普政府最近因“非公民投票”的指控与加利福尼亚州发生了激烈争执，威胁要起诉那些故意统计非公民选票的选举官员。目前没有证据表明非公民投票现象普遍存在，也没有证据表明这种行为影响了选举结果。
The Trump administration recently escalated its feud with California over allegations of noncitizens voting, threatening to criminally prosecute election officials who knowingly count ballots from noncitizen voters. There is no evidence that noncitizen voting is widespread or that it has altered election results.
与独立选民（55%）相比，更多的民主党人（76%）和共和党人（68%）相信选票会被准确统计；即使是那些支持特朗普的共和党人（约占共和党总人口的六成），也有 65% 的人相信选票会被准确统计；同样，2024 年投票给唐纳德·特朗普的选民中也有 66% 的人持相同观点。特朗普接受选举结果的可能性有七成美国人对于特朗普是否会接受即将举行的中期选举结果表示怀疑；其中有一半的人完全不信任特朗普会诚实地接受选举结果。
Larger majorities of Democrats (76%) and Republicans (68%) than independents (55%) are confident that votes will be counted accurately. Even a 65% majority of MAGA Republicans (who make up about 6 in 10 Republicans) are confident votes will be counted accurately, along with 66% of those who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. Trump accepting election results Seven in 10 Americans are not confident that Trump will accept the results of the upcoming midterm elections if the Republican Party loses, including half who are "not at all" confident.
只有28%的美国人认为，如果共和党落败，特朗普会“非常”或“比较”诚实地接受选举结果（其中10%的人表示“非常”有信心，18%的人表示“比较”有信心）。
Just 28% of Americans say they are "very" (10%) or “somewhat” (18%) confident that Trump will accept the results of midterms if Republicans lose.
这一结果与《华盛顿邮报》和马里兰大学在2023年12月进行的民意调查结果高度一致：当时有71%的美国人认为特朗普在2024年总统选举中落败后不会接受选举结果，只有27%的人对此表示有信心。
Americans’ confidence that Trump will accept the results of the midterms closely matches a December 2023 Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, in which 71% of Americans were not confident he would accept the results of the 2024 presidential election if he lost and 27% were confident.
尽管没有任何证据支持他的说法，特朗普仍不断声称拜登赢得2020年总统选举的原因是存在大规模的选民欺诈行为。在2024年总统选举前夕，他曾表示只有当选举结果“公平合法”时才会接受结果，这进一步加剧了人们对选举公正性的怀疑。人们担心，如果共和党在2026年的中期选举中遭遇惨败，特朗普可能会试图否定选举结果的合法性或拒绝承认这些结果。
Trump has continued to falsely assert that widespread voter fraud was why President Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, despite no evidence supporting his claims. Leading up to the 2024 presidential election, he said he would only accept the results if they were "fair and legal," fueling distrust at that time that the election may not be fair. There are fears that Trump may attempt to delegitimize or not accept the results of the 2026 midterm elections if the Republican Party has widespread losses.
根据ABC新闻、《华盛顿邮报》和Ipsos联合进行的民意调查，94%的民主党人认为特朗普在共和党落败后不会接受中期选举结果（其中79%的人完全不信任特朗普会接受结果）。大多数独立选民也持相同观点：77%的独立选民对此表示怀疑，其中55%的人完全不信任特朗普会接受选举结果。
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds 94% of Democrats are not confident that Trump will accept the results of midterms if the Republicans lose, including 79% who are not at all confident. A majority of independents agree: 77% are not confident, including 55% who lack any confidence at all.
虽然有63%的共和党人认为特朗普会在共和党落败后接受选举结果，但这种信心其实相当薄弱——只有25%的共和党人表示“非常”有信心。而在那些支持“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）理念的共和党人中，这种信心略高一些：74%的MAGA共和党人认为特朗普会接受选举结果，其中34%的人表示“非常”有信心。
A 63% majority of Republicans are confident that Trump will accept the results if Republicans lose. Still, that confidence is weak; just 25% say they are very confident. Confidence is higher in Trump’s acceptance of a loss among MAGA Republicans: 74% of them are confident, including 34% who are very confident.
61%的美国人认为特朗普不致力于自由公正的选举，高于2025年的56%。如今，92%的民主党人、69%的独立人士和15%的共和党人认为他不致力于自由公正的选举。仅有37%的美国人认为特朗普致力于自由公正的选举。
A 61% majority of Americans say Trump is not committed to free and fair elections, up from 56% in 2025. Today, 92% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 15% of Republicans say he is not committed to free and fair elections. Just 37% of Americans say Trump is committed to free and fair elections.
更多美国人相信民主党领导人若在中期选举中落败会接受结果，但这远非普遍共识：61%的人表示有信心，38%的人表示没有信心。
More Americans are confident that Democratic Party leaders will accept the results of midterms if their party loses, but it’s far from universal: 61% are confident and 38% are not confident.
民主党人（88%）和独立人士（58%）中占多数的人相信民主党领导人若落败会接受结果，而63%的共和党人不相信。
Majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (58%) are confident Democratic leaders will accept the results if they lose while 63% of Republicans are not confident.
众议院控制权预期 当被问及预计11月谁将赢得美国众议院控制权时，预期民主党获胜的人（35%）以约2比1的比例多于预期共和党获胜的人（16%），但另有28%的人认为势均力敌，21%的人不确定。
House control expectations When Americans were asked who they expected to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, by about a 2-to-1 margin, more say they expect Democrats (35%) than Republicans (16%) to win, but another 28% say it is a tossup and 21% are unsure.
但民主党人对本党获胜的信心（57%）远高于共和党人对共和党获胜的信心（38%）。
But Democrats are far more confident that their own party will win (57%) than Republicans are that the GOP will be victorious (38%).
从某种程度上说，这反映了国会投票选择的差距。ABC新闻/《华盛顿邮报》/益普索民调显示，在国会选区的可能选民中，民主党候选人以52%对44%、领先8个百分点。
In some ways, this reflects the margin of the congressional vote choice. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds Democratic candidates in congressional districts have an 8-point lead over Republicans among likely voters, 52% to 44%.
超过三分之一的共和党人（35%）认为众议院争夺战势均力敌，民主党人中也有23%持此看法。
More than one-third of Republicans (35%) say the battle for the House is a tossup, along with 23% of Democrats.
以超过3比1的比例，更多独立人士预期民主党（33%）将赢得众议院，而非共和党（8%）。但持势均力敌（28%）或不确定（30%）看法的比例相近。详细结果和方法论请见PDF。
By a more than 3-to-1 margin, more independents expect Democrats (33%) to win the House than Republicans (8%). But similar shares say it’s a tossup (28%) or that they’re not sure (30%). See PDF for full results and detailed methodology.
方法论：本次ABC新闻/《华盛顿邮报》/益普索民调由益普索基于概率的KnowledgePanel于2026年10月9日至13日实施，受访对象为2,545名美国成年人，其中包括2,032名已登记及可能投票者，总体误差范围为正负2个百分点，已登记及可能投票者中为正负2.2个百分点。所有已登记选民均被分配了投票概率，以得出可能投票者结果。若干问题针对1,271至1,274名成年人的半数样本提问，误差范围为正负2.8个百分点。大多数其他子群体的误差范围更大。
Methodology: This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel Oct. 9-13, 2026, among 2,545 U.S. adults including 2,032 registered and likely voters and has an error margin of +/- 2 percentage points overall and +/- 2.2 points among registered and likely voters. All registered voters were assigned a probability of voting to produce likely voter results. Several questions were asked of a half sample of 1,271-1,274 adults with an error margin of +/- 2.8 points. Error margins among most other subgroups are larger.
发送邮件至ABCNEWS.Polls@abc.com可加入ABC新闻民调分发名单。
Email ABCNEWS. Polls@abc.com to be added to ABC News’ polling distribution list.
更多ABC新闻民调请访问abcnews.com。媒体联系人：Jeannie Kedas和Van Scott。过往发布：绝大多数美国人反对对尼达尔·哈桑的处决进行直播：ABC/邮报/益普索民调
More ABC News polls can be found at abcnews.com. Media contacts: Jeannie Kedas and Van Scott. Previous releases: Wide majority of Americans oppose livestreaming Nidal Hasan’s execution: ABC/Post/Ipsos poll