在选举日前几周，71%的美国成年人认为该国正处于“错误轨道”。这是唐纳德·特朗普总统第二个任期中出现的最高比例，说明其所在政党在中期选举中面临的严峻全国情绪。根据由SurveyMonkey提供支持的全新NBC新闻决策台民意调查，受访者对经济状况表达了深深的不满，并对两大主要政党普遍持不信任态度，但特朗普和共和党承受了主要压力。
Weeks ahead of Election Day, 71% of U.S. adults think the country is on the “wrong track.”It’s the highest share yet in President Donald Trump’s second term, illustrating the grim national mood his party faces in the midterm elections, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey. Poll respondents expressed deep unhappiness over economic conditions and widespread distrust toward both major political parties, but Trump and Republicans bore the brunt.
在特朗普第二个任期内，该民意调查首次发现“正确轨道”跌至20多个百分点。多数美国人认为总统政府具有独特的腐败性，即便他们对两党的腐败持怀疑态度。他们还说特朗普未能改善他们的物质财务状况。特朗普在美国成年人中的支持率降至34%，这是该民意调查中其第二个任期的最低点，而其不支持率上升至66%。
For the first time in Trump’s second term, the poll has found the “right track” sinking into the 20s. A majority of Americans view the president’s administration as uniquely corrupt, even as they look skeptically at corruption in both parties. And they say Trump is failing to improve their material financial conditions. Trump’s approval rating slipped to 34% among U.S. adults, a second-term low in this poll, while his disapproval rating rose to 66%.
另一个警示信号是，民意调查发现多数受访者（51%）“强烈不赞成”他的表现，这是其第二个任期的最高点。特朗普在登记选民中的支持率略高，为39%-61%。登记选民表示，他们更倾向于让民主党而非共和党控制国会，比例为55%-45%，这也是共和党在众议院和参议院的多数席位在11月3日选举中面临危险的另一个迹象。
In another warning sign, the poll found a majority (51%) of respondents “strongly disapprove” of his performance, a second-term high. Trump’s approval rating is slightly better among registered voters, 39%-61%. Registered voters said they prefer Democrats over Republicans to control Congress by a 55%-45% spread, another sign that the GOP’s House and Senate majorities are in danger in the Nov. 3 election.
然而，尽管执政党的支持率下降，美国人对民主党也持负面看法。在成年人中，仅43%对民主党持有好感，而57%持不良看法。调查发现，37%的人对共和党持好感，而63%持不良看法。特朗普在共和党成年人中的支持率为76%。这相比他之前在本党成员中的数字有所下降，原因是那些认为自己更是政党支持者而非MAGA运动支持者的共和党人比例下降所致。
Yet despite the sinking ratings for the party in power, Americans continue to hold a negative view of Democrats, too. Among adults, just 43% view the Democratic Party favorably, while 57% hold an unfavorable view. The survey found that 37% have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while 63% view it unfavorably. The president’s approval rating is 76% with Republican adults. That represents a drop from his previous numbers among members of his own party, fueled by a decline among Republicans who consider themselves more a supporter of the party than a supporter of the MAGA movement.
与此同时，特朗普在独立选民中的支持率为21%。在30岁以下男性中 — — 这一群体在2024年出口民调中特朗普以1个百分点的优势获胜 — — 他的支持率为28%。而在拉美裔中，他们在2024年也转向支持特朗普，他的支持率为31%。民调凸显了共和党候选人在竞争激烈的州和选区所面临的艰难平衡：他们同时试图激励继续支持特朗普的共和党选民，又不疏远那些对政府持不满意见的美国人。
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating sits at 21% with independents. Among men under 30 — a group Trump won by 1 point in 2024 exit polling — his approval rating sits at 28%. And among Latinos, who also shifted toward Trump in 2024, his approval rating is 31%. The poll highlights the tricky balancing act facing Republican candidates in competitive states and districts as they simultaneously try to energize GOP voters who continue to support Trump without alienating Americans who disapprove of the administration.
在所有成年人中，58%表示特朗普的政策正在伤害国家，而28%表示这些政策正在帮助国家。另有14%表示这些政策没有产生影响。按问题细分来看，特朗普在处理生活成本问题上的支持率为27%，在处理对伊朗战争问题上的支持率为29%，在处理人工智能问题上的支持率为33%。在他的强项议题 — — 边境安全和移民问题上，43%的成年人表示支持。
Among adults, 58% said Trump’s policies are hurting the country, while 28% said they are helping the country. Another 14% said they aren’t making a difference. When broken down by issues, Trump’s approval rating is 27% on handling the cost of living, 29% on handling the war with Iran and 33% on his handling of AI. On his best issue, border security and immigration, 43% of adults approve.
经济问题成为全国情绪低落的核心，经济再次成为最重要问题的首位，占比31%。虽然18%的美国人表示他们的财务状况比一年前更好，但38%表示基本持平，44%表示情况变得更糟。民调提供了细节，说明去月上升至年同比3.7%的通胀上升如何影响了美国人的日常生活。67%的受访者将汽油价格描述为“非常严重”或“有些严重”的问题。
Economic concerns are at the center of the sour national mood, with the economy once again topping the list of most important issues at 31%. While 18% of Americans said their financial situation is better off today than a year ago, 38% said it’s about the same and 44% said it’s worse now. The results provided detail on how rising inflation, which last month rose to 3.7% year over year, has weighed on Americans’ daily lives. Gas prices were described as a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem by 67% of respondents.
多数受访者表示，经济状况迫使他们改变购买的杂货种类以量入为出，并削减开支以负担必需品。此外，还有相当数量的受访者表示，他们因经济原因而减少用电、改变或取消旅行计划或推迟重大购买。特朗普曾试图通过承诺，如果共和党在2026年中期选举中获胜，将发放5000美元付款来吸引选民。但新民调显示，大多数美国人…（注：原文在此处截断，译文亦止于此，不添加任何内容）成年人并不买账：仅有14%的人表示他们“肯定”或“可能”会在共和党继续掌控国会的情况下收到这样的支票，而71%的人认为他们“肯定”或“可能”不会收到。
Majorities said economic conditions have caused them to change what groceries they buy to live within their means, and to cut back on spending to afford necessities. Pluralities also said they’ve cut back on electricity use, changed or canceled travel plans or delayed a major purchase as a result, according to the poll. Trump has sought to appeal to voters by promising $5,000 payments if Republicans win the 2026 midterms. But the new poll showed that most U.S. adults aren’t buying it: Just 14% said they “definitely” or “probably” expect to receive such a check if the GOP keeps control of Congress, while 71% think they “definitely” or “probably” won’t.
自认是共和党人的人也出现在不相信总统承诺的群体中，有47%的人表示他们不期待收到特朗普承诺的5000美元付款，而28%的人表示他们期待。腐败也被视为一个主要问题，美国人对两党都持怀疑态度。超过一半（52%）的美国成年人在民调中表示，他们觉得现任政府“比之前的政府更腐败”，而大约四分之一的人认为它腐败程度较低，另四分之一的人认为现任政府的腐败程度与前任政府相当。
Self-identified Republicans are among those who don’t appear to buy the president’s pledge, with 47% saying they don’t expect to receive the $5,000 payment Trump promised, while 28% do. Corruption also registered as a major concern, with Americans harboring skepticism about both parties. More than half (52%) of U.S. adults said in the poll that they find his administration “more corrupt” than previous administrations, while about 1 in 4 said it’s less corrupt and another 1 in 4 said the current administration is about as corrupt as predecessors.
另外56%的多数人也表示，腐败在两党中同样严重，而另有25%的人认为腐败在共和党内部更为严重，17%的人认为腐败在民主党内部更为严重。这种不满可能正在重塑美国人对政治家的期望。在一年前的同一项民调中，美国人以16个百分点的差距表示，他们更倾向于选择有经验的内部人士来完成任务，而不是能够冲击体制的外部人士。
A 56% majority also said corruption is equally bad in both parties, while another 25% said it’s a bigger problem inside the GOP and 17% said it’s worse among Democrats. The dissatisfaction may be reshaping what Americans want in a politician. In another edition of this poll one year ago, Americans said by a 16-point margin they prefer an insider with the experience to get things done over an outsider who shakes up the system.
而在最新民调中，这一差距缩小至4个百分点。在民主党人中，调查还发现了对党内既得利益者信任减弱的迹象，以及对不同类型候选人的开放态度。当被要求在两者之间做出选择时，52%的自认民主党人表示他们更倾向于支持进步事业和进步运动，而48%的人表示他们更倾向于支持民主党。在亲民主党的成年人中，42%的人表示他们自己认为是民主社会主义者，而58%的人表示他们不是。
That margin narrowed to 4 points in the new poll. Among Democrats, the survey also found indicators of diminishing trust in the party’s establishment and an openness to different kinds of candidates. When asked to pick one or the other, 52% of self-identified Democrats said they’re more of a supporter of progressive causes and the progressive movement, while 48% said they’re more of a supporter of the Democratic Party. Among Democratic-aligned adults, 42% said they consider themselves to be democratic socialists, while 58% said they do not.
尽管特朗普不受欢迎，但全国在是否应由潜在的民主党领导的众议院启动弹劾程序的问题上几乎持平：52%的人认为应该启动，而48%的人认为不应走这条路。
And despite Trump’s unpopularity, the country was split almost evenly on whether a potential Democratic-led House should begin impeachment proceedings: 52% said it should, while 48% said it should not go down that path.
NBC新闻决策台民调由SurveyMonkey提供支持，于9月28日至10月12日在线调查了19,135名成年人，误差范围为正负2.6个百分点。
The NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey surveyed 19,135 adults online from Sept. 28 to Oct. 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.