
华盛顿讯(记者 ALI SWENSON、LINLEY SANDERS)——达米恩·威廉姆斯曾经信任美国的选举结果,但现在不再信任了。
ALI SWENSON, LINLEY SANDERS WASHINGTON — Daemien Williams used to trust U.S. election results, but not anymore.
这位50岁的民主党人居住在伊利诺伊州的桑特维尔,他担心总统唐纳德·特朗普和其他共和党人会不惜一切手段——从恐吓选民到夺取选票——来在11月的中期选举中保住权力,并在此过程中危及选举结果。
The 50-year-old Democrat in Centreville, Illinois, worries that President Donald Trump and other Republicans will try anything from intimidating voters to seizing ballots to hold onto power in November’s midterm elections — and, in the process, jeopardize the outcome.
“我对这些人什么事都做得出来,”他说。“我的信任度已降至历史最低点。”据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民调显示,自四年前中期选举以来,自认是民主党的登记选民对美国选举结果失去了信心。他们相信选票会被准确计票的信心,已从2022年的75%下降到今年的55%。
“I don’t put anything past these people,” he said. “My trust level is at its all-time low.”Registered voters who identify as Democrats have lost faith in America’s election results since the midterm elections four years ago, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research . Their confidence that votes will be counted accurately has dropped from 75% in 2022 to 55% this year.
绝大多数民主党选民还表示,总统试图影响美国选举是一个“重大问题”,这一观点也得到无党派选民的认同,但大多数共和党人不这么认为。
The overwhelming majority of Democratic voters also say the president attempting to influence U.S. elections is a “major problem,” a view that’s shared by independents but not most Republicans.
与此同时,共和党选民对选举结果的信心自2022年以来略有回升——但他们仍不如民主党选民那样表示对选举过程有信心。
Meanwhile, Republican voters’ confidence in the results has risen slightly since 2022 — but they’re still less likely to say they have faith in the electoral process than Democrats.
这项民调在选举日不到一个月前进行,反映了自特朗普去年重返白宫并开始一项旨在扩大联邦政府对选举权力的广泛努力以来,舆论发生了怎样的变化。尽管宪法赋予各州和国会对投票过程的控制权,但特朗普试图通过行政行动和诉讼来改革这些过程,至今均未成功。
The survey, conducted less than a month before Election Day, signals how opinion has changed since Trump returned to the White House last year and began a wide-ranging effort to expand federal authority over elections . Even though the Constitution gives states and Congress control over voting processes, Trump has tried to overhaul them through executive action and lawsuits, so far without success.
随着11月3日选举的临近,这位共和党总统已暗示他希望联邦检察官警惕选举舞弊,并暗示如果选票不利于他,他可能会提起法律挑战。
With the Nov. 3 elections approaching, the Republican president has signaled he wants federal prosecutors to be on the lookout for fraud, suggesting he may try legal challenges if the votes don’t go his way.
威廉姆斯表示,尽管有这些担忧,他仍计划参加中期选举,因为这是他选择自己代表的唯一权力。
Williams said that, despite his concerns, he still plans to vote in the midterms because it’s the only power he has in choosing his representation.
“如果你从美国拿走这一点,你就几乎拿走了这个国家的基石,”他说。
“If you take that away from America, you pretty much take away the foundation of this country,” he said.
民主党选民在特朗普虚假声称自己赢得了2020年大选、其支持者为这一主张暴力冲击美国国会大厦之后,仍然在很大程度上信任美国大选,但最近开始对即将到来的选举结果产生怀疑。不过,他们仍比共和党和独立选民更有信心。
Democratic voters, who had largely trusted U.S. elections even after Trump falsely claimed he won the 2020 race and his supporters violently stormed the U.S. Capitol to champion that cause, have recently begun to doubt the upcoming results. But they still have more confidence than Republican and independent voters.
略低于一半的美国选民对投票的准确性抱有“非常大”或“相当大”的信心,比例从2022年的50%下降至今年的45%。独立选民保持稳定,信任度较低,2022年和今年均有34%表示抱有“非常大”或“相当大”的信心。
Slightly fewer than half of all U.S. voters have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in the accuracy of the vote, down to 45% this year from 50% in 2022. Independents have remained steady with a lower level of trust, with 34% saying they have a “great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in both years.
与此同时,共和党选民自特朗普重掌大权以来信心有所增强,尽管仍低于民主党选民。今年约有38%的共和党选民对结果抱有“非常大”或“相当大”的信心,而2022年为26%。
Republicans, meanwhile, are growing more confident since Trump returned to power, even as they remain less confident than Democrats. About 38% of GOP voters have a “great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in the results this year, compared with 26% in 2022.
一些选民表示,他们的信心水平与特朗普可能介入选举的升级威胁有关。本月初,其政府起诉加利福尼亚州官员,指控他们未能妥善处理选民名册上涉嫌的非公民选民,并警告处理非公民选票的选举工作人员可能面临刑事调查和起诉。
Some voters said their confidence levels related to escalating threats from Trump that he could get involved in the elections. Earlier this month, his administration filed a lawsuit against California officials claiming they didn’t adequately address alleged noncitizen voters on their rolls, and it warned that election workers who process ballots from noncitizens could face criminal investigation and prosecution .
其政府表示,没有计划派遣军队或移民执法人员巡逻投票站,尽管国土安全部部长称,移民执法人员可能被派往投票站执行有针对性的行动,例如持逮捕令实施逮捕。特朗普的批评者对潜在的选民恐吓表示担忧,一些人指出司法部计划向投票地点部署1000名监督员。
His administration has said it has no plans to send the military or immigration agents to patrol polling places, although the head of the Department of Homeland Security said immigration officers could be sent there for targeted operations, such as making an arrest with a warrant. Trump critics have expressed fears over potential voter intimidation, with some pointing to a Department of Justice plan to deploy 1,000 monitors to voting locations.
俄克拉荷马州格罗夫的艾伦·柯蒂斯是今年感觉更好的共和党选民之一。这位67岁的老人在2024年总统大选前曾怀疑选举舞弊,他认为特朗普的“讲坛”是一种强大的威慑。
Alan Curtis in Grove, Oklahoma, is among the Republican voters feeling better this year. The 67-year-old, who was suspicious of election fraud before the presidential election in 2024, sees Trump’s bully pulpit as a strong deterrent.
“我觉得选举官员会吓得发抖,”他说。“其他政党的人都害怕唐纳德·特朗普可能会做什么。”柯蒂斯说,他仍然相信民主党可能会试图作弊——这是总统经常提出但未提供证据的指控——但他预计,如果特朗普看到任何可疑情况,会通过诉讼或其他干预措施介入。
“I think the election officials will be running scared,” he said. “The people in other political parties are afraid of what Donald Trump might do.”Curtis said he still believes that Democrats could try to cheat — an accusation made often by the president without providing evidence — but he expects Trump will step in with lawsuits or other interventions if he sees anything suspicious.
“只要他看到看起来不寻常的事情,他就会提出质疑,”柯蒂斯谈到特朗普时说。
“He’s going to challenge anything where he sees things that look out of the ordinary,” Curtis said of Trump.
如果出现法律挑战,很少有美国人相信美国最高法院能公平裁决。只有17%的登记选民“非常”或“非常”有信心,法院能以公平、非党派的方式处理与中期选举相关的案件。
If there are legal challenges, few Americans have faith in the U.S. Supreme Court to decide them fairly. Just 17% of registered voters were “extremely” or “very” confident the court would handle a case related to the midterm elections in a fair and nonpartisan manner.
虽然一些共和党人认为特朗普介入是积极的,但民调显示,绝大多数民主党人持相反看法。
While some Republicans view Trump getting involved as a positive, the poll shows the vast majority of Democrats feel the opposite.
大约90%的民主党选民认为,总统试图影响选举结果“是一个大问题”,而共和党选民中只有大约20%这么认为。
About 9 in 10 Democratic voters believe that the president attempting to influence election outcomes is “a major problem,” compared with only about 2 in 10 Republican voters.
加利福尼亚州戴维斯的26岁民主党人布鲁克林·约翰逊说,她不喜欢特朗普的可疑承诺:如果共和党在中期选举中保持对众议院和参议院的控制权,就给每个美国成年人5000美元。
Brooklyn Johnson, a 26-year-old Democrat in Davis, California, said she dislikes Trump’s dubious promise of $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans retain control of the House and the Senate in the midterms.
“他一直在试图贿赂人们,这有点奇怪,”她说。“这看起来不合法。”南卡罗来纳州哥伦比亚的独立选民尤金尼奥·门德斯倾向于民主党,他非常担心特朗普的干预,以至于这影响了他的投票计划。“我不相信我邮寄的选票会被计入,”49岁的门德斯说。
“The fact that he’s been trying to bribe people, that’s a little weird,” she said. “It doesn’t seem legal.”Eugenio Mendez, an independent voter in Columbia, South Carolina, who leans toward Democrats, is so concerned about Trump interfering that it’s affecting his voting plan. “I don’t trust that mailing my ballot will be counted,” said the 49-year-old Mendez.
他说,他今年将亲自投票,因为他担心特朗普可能利用其对美国邮政局的影响力干预邮寄选票。特朗普今年签署了一项行政命令,要求对邮政局进行旨在限制邮寄投票的改革,但最高法院未允许该计划在中期选举中推进。
He said he’ll vote in person this year because he worries Trump could use his influence over the U.S. Postal Service to meddle with mail-in ballots. Trump signed an executive order this year directing changes at the Postal Service designed to restrict mail voting, but the Supreme Court did not allow the plan to move forward for the midterms.
虽然民主党人担心总统干预,但共和党人更担心不符合资格的人投票。约有七成共和党选民认为这是美国选举中的“重大问题”,而民主党选民中仅有25%持此观点。
While Democrats worry about presidential interference, Republicans are more concerned about people voting when they are ineligible. About 7 in 10 Republican voters say this is a “major problem” in U.S. elections compared with just 25% of Democratic voters.
两党多数选民也表示,外国政府试图影响选举结果、人工智能生成的选举虚假信息以及各州重新划分立法选区以故意偏袒某一政党,都是“重大问题”。各州不同的投票法律也是两党之间的主要分歧线。共和党选民压倒性地支持要求选民投票时出示身份证件,并在选民登记时提供公民身份证明,这些是特朗普曾试图但未能通过国会推动的改革。
Majorities of voters from both parties also say foreign governments trying to influence election outcomes, artificial intelligence-generated election misinformation and states redrawing legislative districts to intentionally favor one party are “major problems.”Approaches to voting laws, which differ by state, are also a major dividing line between the parties. Republican voters overwhelmingly favor requiring voters to show ID when casting a ballot and providing proof of citizenship when registering to vote, changes Trump tried unsuccessfully to pass through Congress.
民主党人比共和党人更倾向于支持允许选民当天登记并投票,以及向所有登记选民邮寄选票,这是特朗普及其他共和党人批评的做法。
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to favor allowing voters to and cast a ballot the same day, as well as to support mailing a ballot to all registered voters, a practice Trump and other Republicans have criticized.
但尽管民主党选民的支持力度不如共和党人强烈,多数民主党选民也支持要求出示选民身份证件。斯文森从纽约报道。
But while their support was not as strong as Republicans’, a majority of Democratic voters also favor a voter ID requirement. Swenson reported from New York.
美联社-NORC民调对1119名成年人(包括925名登记选民)进行,调查时间为10月8日至12日,样本来自NORC的基于概率的AmeriSpeak小组,该小组旨在代表美国人口。成年人整体的抽样误差为正负3.9个百分点,登记选民的误差为正负4.2个百分点。
The AP-NORC poll of 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, was conducted Oct. 8-12 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, and the margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.