华盛顿特区——随着中期选举临近，美国民众对美国选举公正性的看法存在分歧。49%的民众对选举的公正性充满信心，而51%的民众则不然。美国民众对选举公正性的信心相对不足并非新鲜事——自2006年以来，这一比例平均为45%——但缺乏信心的群体却发生了变化。
WASHINGTON, D.C. — With the midterms approaching, Americans are divided in their views of the honesty of U.S. elections. Forty-nine percent are confident in electoral honesty, while 51% are not. Americans’ relative lack of confidence in the integrity of elections is nothing new — it has averaged 45% since 2006 — but who lacks confidence is.
2026年，63%的民主党人对选举的公正性充满信心，这一比例高于共和党人（37%）和政治独立人士（35%）。《世界民意调查》自2024年起才开始询问美国民众的党派认同情况，当时民主党人与共和党人之间的信心差距高达55个百分点。这一差距在2025年缩小至仅4个百分点，但今年又重新扩大，尽管共和党人同时掌控着白宫和国会。
In 2026, 63% of Democrats are confident in the honesty of elections, higher than either Republicans (37%) or political independents (35%). The World Poll has asked about party identification in the U.S. only since 2024, when there was a 55-percentage-point divide in confidence between Democrats and Republicans. This divide closed to just four points in 2025 but has reopened this year, despite Republicans controlling both the White House and Congress.
对国家领导层的看法与党派认同存在显著重叠。本文其余部分将聚焦于领导层的支持率，以便在2024年之前对政治子群体进行分析，并便于与其他国家进行比较。2026年，首次出现这样一种情况：对美国领导层持否定态度（52%）的民众对选举公正性的信心，显著高于持肯定态度（41%）的民众。在过去15年间，其他任何国家均未出现过这种模式。
Views of national leadership share significant overlaps with party identification. The remainder of this article focuses on leadership approval to allow for political subgroup analysis before 2024 and to facilitate comparisons with other countries. In 2026, confidence in the honesty of elections is, for the first time, significantly higher among Americans who disapprove (52%) of their country’s leadership than approve (41%), a pattern that has not been seen in any other country over the past 15 years.
基于领导层看法的长期信心差距消失 从2006年到2020年，在乔治·W·布什（平均差距35个百分点）、巴拉克·奥巴马（平均差距30个百分点）和唐纳德·特朗普（平均差距35个百分点）的执政期间，对美国领导层持肯定态度与否定态度的民众之间，始终存在巨大且稳定的选举信心差距。
Long-Standing Confidence Gap by Leadership Views Vanishes From 2006 to 2020, there was a consistent and large gap in electoral confidence between Americans who approved of and those who disapproved of U.S. leadership under the administrations of George W. Bush (averaging 35 points), Barack Obama (averaging 30 points) and Donald Trump (averaging 35 points).
在2020年大选中，乔·拜登赢得总统职位，而特朗普对选举结果提出质疑。此后，这种信心差距扩大至51个百分点。不认可拜登领导美国的人（主要是共和党人）的信心水平与以往政府时期同样低迷（平均为30%），但认可者（主要是民主党人）的信心则大幅提升（平均为81%）。
After Joe Biden won the presidency in the 2020 election, the results of which Trump challenged, this confidence gap ballooned to 51 points. Those disapproving of U.S. leadership under Biden (mostly Republicans) had similarly low levels of confidence (averaging 30%) as under previous administrations, but approvers (mostly Democrats) became far more confident (averaging 81%).
自2025年特朗普重返白宫以来，领导层认可度与选举信心之间的关系已经消失。在过去两年中，平均有46%的认可者对选举的公正性表示信心，而不认可者中这一比例为48%。
Since 2025 and Trump’s return to the White House, the relationship between leadership approval and confidence in elections has disappeared. Over the past two years, an average of 46% of approvers have expressed confidence in the honesty of elections, compared with 48% of disapprovers.
差距的缩小源于两个因素。首先，认可者和不认可者群体的构成发生了变化。在拜登执政期间，认可者群体偏向民主党，而在特朗普执政期间则转向偏向共和党；不认可者群体则呈现相反的模式。其次，尽管民主党人对美国选举的信心仍高于共和党人，但在特朗普执政下，民主党人的信心低于拜登执政时期，而共和党人的信心在特朗普执政下则有所提高。
The collapsing of the gap is a result of two factors. The first is that the composition of the approver and disapprover groups has changed. Approvers shifted from being a Democratic-leaning group under Biden to a Republican-leaning group under Trump, while disapprovers showed the reverse pattern. And, although Democrats remain more confident in U.S. elections than Republicans, Democratic confidence is lower under Trump than it was under Biden, while Republicans’ confidence is now higher under Trump.
美国在选举信心方面已成为全球异类。与美国相比，当前美国的模式在世界范围内极为罕见。在盖洛普每年就选举信心和领导层认可度进行调查的100多个国家中，认可本国领导层的人几乎总是比不认可者拥有更高的信心水平，这一关系在所有类型的政治体制中均成立。2025年（2026年的全球数据收集尚未完成），认可本国领导层的人中，中位数为70%对选举的公正性表示信心，而不认可者中这一比例为30%——差距为40个百分点。
U.S. Now a Global Outlier on Confidence in Elections The current U.S. pattern is highly unusual compared with the rest of the world. In the more than 100 countries where Gallup asks about election confidence and leadership approval annually, those approving of their country’s leadership nearly always have higher levels of confidence than those disapproving, a relationship that holds across all types of political systems. In 2025 (with final global data collection not yet complete in 2026), a median of 70% of approvers of their national leadership had confidence in the honesty of their elections, compared with 30% of disapprovers — a gap of 40 points.
2026年的美国数据凸显了该国在这一方面的独特性：支持者与反对者之间的差距如今已扩大至11个百分点，且方向与以往相反。这也标志着与2025年（特朗普第二个任期的第一年）相比出现了变化，当时支持者的信任度（51%）名义上高于反对者（45%）。
The 2026 U.S. data highlight how unique the country is in this regard, with the gap between approvers and disapprovers now 11 points in the opposite direction. This also marks a change from 2025, the first year of Trump’s second term, when confidence was nominally higher among approvers (51%) than disapprovers (45%).
在过去15年里，世界上没有任何其他国家出现过这种模式：即对领导层持反对态度的人，对选举公正性的信任度显著高于支持领导层的人。
No other country in the world in the past 15 years has seen this pattern, in which people disapproving of their leadership are significantly more confident in the honesty of elections than those approving of their leadership.
结论：随着美国人在今年秋季的期中选举中投票，他们所处的环境呈现出一种极为罕见的动态。与全球典型的模式不同——即在上届选举中获胜政党的支持者远比失败政党的支持者更信任选举过程——美国支持者和反对者之间的信任差距不仅缩小了，甚至出现了方向逆转。这引发了真正的疑问：部分选民是否会将11月的选举结果视为合法。
Bottom Line As Americans cast ballots in this fall’s midterm elections, they do so amid a highly unusual dynamic. Rather than the typical global pattern, in which supporters of the winning party in the last election trust the election process much more than supporters of the losing party, the gap between them has narrowed and reversed direction. This raises real questions about whether some voters will see November's results as legitimate.
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