一项新的美联社-NORC民意调查发现，绝大多数选民认为特朗普总统在国内外都表现不佳，他们希望在即将到来的中期选举中实现重大变革。
A new AP-NORC poll finds that a strong majority of voters believe President Donald Trump is falling short at home and abroad, and they want major change in the upcoming midterm elections.
史蒂夫·皮普尔斯，林利·桑德斯 华盛顿 — 根据一项新的美联社-NORC民意调查，绝大多数选民认为特朗普总统在国内外都表现不佳，他们希望在即将到来的中期选举中实现重大变革。该调查在关键时刻为共和党敲响了严重的警钟。
STEVE PEOPLES, LINLEY SANDERS WASHINGTON — A strong majority of voters believe that President Donald Trump is falling short at home and abroad, and they want major change in the upcoming midterm elections according to a new AP-NORC poll that raises serious warning signs for the Republican Party at a critical moment.
该调查由美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心进行，时间是在选举日前不到四周。结果显示，自认是民主党人的选民比共和党选民更热衷于投票。更多选民希望民主党赢得国会控制权，并对共和党持更负面的看法。
The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted less than four weeks before Election Day, finds thated voters who identify as Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republican voters about casting a ballot. More voters want Democrats to win control of Congress and have a more negative view of Republicans.
在某些情况下，民主党的优势虽然不大，但综合来看，这些发现为共和党描绘了一幅艰难的图景。共和党正在伊朗战争不受欢迎、国内物价飙升的压力下努力维持对国会的控制。大约十分之八的选民总体表示，经济或生活成本是他们在即将到来的选举中的首要问题之一；而大约三分之二的选民则这样认为医疗和伊朗战争也是如此。其他对特朗普更有利的议题——如移民或犯罪——则优先级较低。
The Democratic advantage is small in some cases, but, taken together, the findings paint a challenging picture for Republicans, who are clinging to control of Congress under the weight of an unpopular war with Iran surging prices at home About 8 in 10 voters overall say the economy or the cost of living is among their top issues for the upcoming election, while about two-thirds say this about healthcare and the war in Iran. Other issues that are stronger for Trump — like immigration or crime — are lower priorities.
“世界正在倒退。我们几乎买不起任何东西，”来自佐治亚州迪凯特的65岁民主党人戴安娜·沃克说。“大家都很沮丧。我不在乎你是民主党还是共和党，我们都在倒霉。”民主党人比共和党人更热衷于投票在最终中期选举投票前不到一个月，该民意调查发现，民主党选民更有动力去投票。
“The world is going backwards. We can barely afford anything,” said Diana Walker, a 65-year-old Democrat from Decatur, Georgia. “Everybody’s down. I don’t care if you’re a Democrat or Republican, we’re all catching hell.”Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans Less than a month before the final midterm votes are cast, the poll finds that Democratic voters are more motivated to vote.
总体而言，大约三分之二的选民表示在即将到来的选举中投票“极其”重要，而大约两分之一的选民表示投票“非常”重要。
Overall, about two-thirds ofed voters say it’s “extremely” important to vote in the upcoming election, while about 2 in 10 say it’s “very” important.
但大约四分之三的民主党选民表示，在今年11月的中期选举中投票是“极其”重要的，而大约十分之六的共和党选民持此观点。
But about three-quarters of Democratic voters say that voting in this November’s midterm elections is “extremely” important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans.
来自俄亥俄州哥伦布市、从事技术营销工作的52岁民主党人瑞安·朗布雷克表示，他对投下选票感到特别兴奋，并且已经采取措施，确保他的妻子和两名大学年龄的女儿也会投票。
Ryan Longbrake, a 52-year-old Democrat from Columbus, Ohio who works in technology marketing, said he’s especially excited about casting his ballot, and he’s already taken steps to ensure that his wife and two college-age daughters will vote as well.
“我相信变革即将到来，我们党内也充满了兴奋感，”他说，并指向民主党在俄亥俄州州长和美国参议院选举中的势头。该党也在共和党倾斜的州投入资源，比如爱荷华州和堪萨斯州，在那里政治环境让民主党候选人处于更有利的位置。共和党在过去两年中一直控制着国会，但大约一半的选民现在表示，他们更希望看到民主党控制众议院或参议院。大约有4成选民表示，他们希望共和党控制每个议院，而15%的选民持犹豫态度。
“I believe that there is change on the horizon and there is an excitement within our party,” he said, pointing to Democrats’ momentum in Ohio’s elections for governor and U.S. Senate The party is also investing resources in Republican-leaning states, like Iowa and Kansas, where the political environment has put Democratic candidates on friendlier footing Republicans have controlled Congress for the past two years, but about half ofed voters now say they’d prefer to see the Democratic Party control the House or the Senate. A smaller percentage, roughly 4 in 10, say they want the Republican Party to control each chamber, while 15% are undecided.
绝大多数选民希望有变革。在2026年中期选举前夕，有一点非常清晰：选民希望有变革。
The vast majority of voters want change One thing is crystal clear on the eve of the 2026 midterms: Voters want change.
大约一半的选民表示，他们希望实现“实质性变革”，而大约3成选民希望在国家运行方式上实现“彻底的颠覆”。
About half of voters say they want “substantial change,” and roughly 3 in 10 want “complete and total upheaval” in the way the country is run.
民主党人和独立人士比共和党人更有可能希望彻底改革国家的方向。但即使是共和党选民也仍在寻求一些不同的东西。略低于一半的共和党选民——45%——希望实现实质性变革，而13%希望实现颠覆。
Democrats and independents are much likelier than Republicans to want a full overhaul of the country’s direction. But even Republican voters are still looking for something different. Slightly fewer than half, 45%, want substantial change, while 13% want upheaval.
“我厌倦了派人去那里却什么也没做得成，”来自内布拉斯加州戴维附近、70岁的共和党人克里斯塔·科勒斯说。“什么都没变。”选民对特朗普在关键议题上的表现深感失望。选民对特朗普及其在他们看来最重要的议题上的领导深感沮丧。
“I’m kind of tired of sending people there and nothing gets done,” said Krista Kohles, a 70-year-old Republican from near Davey, Nebraska. “Nothing’s changing.”Trump’s numbers on key issues are weak Voters are deeply frustrated with Trump and his leadership on the issues they say matter most.
只有大约三分之一的选民对共和党总统持“非常”或“比较”有利的看法，同样比例的选民批准他作为总统的表现。
Only about one-third ofed voters overall have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the Republican president, and a similar share approve of his performance as president.
选民们继续对高昂的生活成本感到沮丧——这是特朗普在赢得白宫第二个任期之前曾承诺要解决的问题。
Voters continue to be frustrated by the high cost of living an issue that Trump vowed to address before winning a second term in the White House.
在他成功当选近两年后，大约十分之八的选民对特朗普处理生活成本的方式表示不赞同，这与9月份美联社-NORC民调结果一致。大约四分之三的选民不赞同他在经济方面的表现。即使是在共和党选民中，只有44%的人赞同特朗普在生活成本问题上的表现，而54%的人赞同他在经济上的领导力。这与其他议题形成鲜明对比，比如犯罪问题，共和党选民对其的支持率要高得多。
Nearly two years after his successful election, about 8 in 10ed voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the cost of living, in line with a September AP-NORC poll About three-quarters disapprove of his performance on the economy Even among Republican voters, only 44% approve of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, while 54% approve of his leadership on the economy. That’s a sharp contrast with other issues, like crime, on which Republican approval is much higher.
在其他议题上，特朗普的共和党基本盘也出现了裂痕。尽管他曾承诺伊朗战争只会持续四到五周，但随着战争进入第八个月，只有69%的共和党选民在外交政策上支持特朗普。来自密歇根州马尼斯蒂的72岁共和党选手DonnaJean Weber表示，她今年秋天仍会支持共和党候选人，但她对特朗普领导下的经济状况并不满意。
There are cracks in Trump’s Republican base on other issues, too. Just 69% of Republican voters support Trump on foreign policy as the war in Iran stretches into its eighth month, despite his promises that it would only last four or five weeks DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, says she will continue to support Republican candidates this fall, but she’s not happy with the state of the economy under Trump’s leadership.
“一切都在涨价，”她说，她指出伊朗战争的影响以及其他特朗普的决定。“我也不同意他在这些关税问题上的全部立场。这让这个国家看起来很糟糕。”经济和生活成本是两党选民的首要关切。调查发现，绝大多数共和党和民主党选民认为这两个问题即将到来的选举中最重要的议题之一。
“Everything’s going up,” she said, pointing to the impact of the war with Iran, among other Trump decisions. “I don’t agree with him fully on all of these tariffs, either. It’s making this country look bad.”The economy and the cost of living are high priorities for voters on both sides of the aisle. The survey found that the vast majority of Republican and Democratic voters say both issues are among the most important for the upcoming election.
选民对特朗普潜在的继任者——下届总统选举中的副总统JD·万斯——也没有更高的评价：大约一半持“比较”或“非常”负面看法，而只有大约三分之一持正面看法。
Voters aren’t any higher on one of Trump’s potential successors in the next presidential election, Vice President JD Vance: About half have a “somewhat” or “very” negative view of Vance, compared with about one-third who have a positive opinion.
民主党的热情并不压倒性地超过特朗普的困境，这并不意味着选民对民主党的方向特别兴奋。
Enthusiasm for the Democrats isn’t overwhelming Trump’s struggles do not mean that voters are particularly excited about the direction of the Democratic Party.
总体而言，大约40%的选民对民主党持“非常”或“比较”有利的看法，而大约一半的选民对该党持不利看法。这与共和党的看法大致相似，尽管大约60%的选民对共和党持不利看法。
Overall, about 4 in 10 voters have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of the Democrats, while about half view the party unfavorably. That’s roughly similar to views of the GOP, although about 6 in 10 voters view the Republicans unfavorably.
民主党和共和党选民对各自阵营的热情程度相当，大约80%的选民表示他们对自己的政党持有利看法。
Democratic and Republican voters are equally enthusiastic about their own side, with about 8 in 10 saying they have a favorable view of their own party.
但自认是独立人士的选民这一关键群体更倾向于对共和党持负面看法，而非对民主党。大约三分之二的独立选民对共和党持负面看法，而大约40%的独立选民对民主党持负面看法。
But the critical bloc of voters who identify as independents is much more likely to have a negative view of the Republicans than of the Democrats. About two-thirds of independent voters view the GOP negatively, compared with about 4 in 10 who view Democrats negatively.
51岁的得州选民迈克尔·卢索（Michael Russo）被指出既不属于民主党也不属于共和党，他形容共和党执政下的国家状况是“噩梦”。他希望共和党继续掌控国会吗？“不，我想让他们进监狱 — — 几个人都要进，”他说。但他对民主党也并不兴奋。“我不相信他们上台后会做任何事情，”卢索说。佩普尔斯从纽约报道。
Michael Russo, a 51-year-old Texas voter who is noted with either party, described the state of the country under Republican control as “a nightmare.”Does he want Republicans to maintain control of Congress? “No, I want them in prison — several of them,” he said. But he’s not thrilled with the Democratic Party, either. “I’m not confident they’re going to do anything if they get into power,” Russo said. Peoples reported from New York.
美联社-NORC民意调查于10月8日至12日进行，共访谈1,119名成年人，其中包括925名登记选民。样本来源于NORC基于概率的AmeriSpeak小组，该小组旨在代表美国人口。总体成年人的抽样误差范围为正负3.9个百分点，登记选民的抽样误差范围为正负4.2个百分点。
The AP-NORC poll of 1,119 adults, including 925ed voters, was conducted Oct. 8-12 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, and the margin of error fored voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.