数据：AP-NORC；图表：Avery Lotz/Axios 本周发布的四项民调传递出一个鲜明的信号：美国人对白宫的主人感到不满、困惑和失望。
Data: AP-NORC; Chart: Avery Lotz/Axios A quartet of polls out this week carries a stark message: Americans feel disgruntled, dizzy and down on the man in the White House. Why it matters:
为何重要：进入中期选举的氛围十分沉闷，绝大多数选民希望看到重大变革。但问题在于，这些情绪是否会促使他们真正去投票。
The vibes going into the midterms are bleak, with a large majority of voters wanting significant change. But the question remains whether those sentiments will drive them to the polls.
推动新闻：根据周三发布的福克斯新闻民调，近四分之三的美国人认为经济状况仅为一般或较差。
Driving the news: Nearly three-quarters of Americans rate the economy as only fair or poor, per a Fox News poll out Wednesday.
- 《经济学人》/YouGov 在10月10日至12日进行的调查显示，十分之七的选民表示，他们觉得国家事务失控。
• Seven in ten voters say they feel like things in the country are out of control, per a The Economist/YouGov survey conducted October 10-12.
- 此外，全新的AP/NORC民调发现，十分之八的受访者希望看到国家运行方式出现“实质性变革”或“彻底颠覆”。在共和党人中，有58%持有这种看法。
• And eight in ten, new AP/NORC polling found, want to see either "substantial change" or "complete and total upheaval" in how the country is run. Among Republicans, 58% share those sentiments.
全局视角：这种全国性的焦虑似乎正在拖低总统的支持率。福克斯新闻发现，特朗普在通胀问题上的支持率上月有所上升，但如今降至新低：22%。
Zoom out: That national angst appears to be dragging down the president's approval. Fox News found that Trump's approval rating on inflation, which picked up last month, is at a new low: 22%.
- 他的整体工作支持率也在福克斯新闻的调查中跌至历史新低，无论是哪个任期：36%。
• His overall job approval rating has also fallen to a new floor in Fox News surveys for either term: 36%.
- 福克斯表示，这一下降主要由45岁以下选民、家庭年收入低于5万美元的群体、非白人选民以及未接受大学教育的人群推动。
• Fox says that drop is largely driven by voters under 45, those with household incomes below $50,000, non-white voters and those without a college degree. What they're saying:
他们说：白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在向Axios提供的声明中说：“[低估特朗普总统及其政府]一再证明专家和民调机构的判断是错误的。”
White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in a statement provided to Axios that "[u]nderestimating President Trump and this administration have proven the experts and pollsters wrong every single time." Yes, but:
但事实是：民调显示，不满情绪并不一定会转化为对民主党的积极支持。
Polling suggests that disgruntlement doesn't necessarily translate into a wellspring of positive energy toward Democrats.
- 根据AP/NORC的调查，认为民主党前景“有些”或“非常”悲观的选民比例（47%）远高于持乐观态度的比例（21%）。
• Far more voters say they're somewhat or very pessimistic about the Democratic Party's future (47%) than those who say they're optimistic (21%), per AP/NORC.
- 大约一半受访者对共和党的未来持悲观态度，而约23%持乐观态度。
• About half say they're pessimistic about Republicans' future, while around 23% say they're optimistic.
不过，福克斯发现，如果今天举行选举，54%的选民将支持他们所在众议院选区的民主党人，而45%将支持共和党人——民主党的领先优势比上个月更大。
Still, Fox found that if the election were held today, 54% of voters would back the Democrat in their House district, while 45% would support the Republican — a wider lead for Dems than the prior month.
- 此外，福克斯还发现，共和党在通胀和外交政策等关键问题上赢得选民信任方面正在失去阵地，而民主党则在获得优势。
• Plus, Fox found that Republicans have lost ground to Democrats in earning voters' trust on key issues like inflation and foreign policy. Between the lines:
深层解读：共和党人清楚，他们正在一场艰难的中期选举中处于防守状态 • 他们已经在曾经安全的州投放了大量广告，而在那些看来毫无希望的州则在撤回广告，有报道称。
Republicans know that they're playing defense in an uphill midterm battle • They have flooded the airwaves in once-safe states and are pulling ads in those that look like a lost cause, reports.
- 但民主党领导层的处境也不轻松——他们仍在应对艰难的选举竞争，并面临迎接一个新的、叛逆的党团进入华盛顿的风险，该党团表示愿意违背党的意志。
• But it's not smooth sailing for Democratic leadership — they are still navigating tough races and risk welcoming a new, rebellious caucus to Washington that says it's willing to buck the party. The bottom line:
结论：民调机构没有水晶球——美国人的不满是否会转化为中期选举的剧变，只有在投票结束后才能揭晓。
Pollsters don't have crystal balls— and whether Americans' discontent translates into a midterm upheaval will only be clear after votes are cast.