受美伊冲突影响的全球酒店运营商，随着中东地区进入旅游旺季，应能看到需求复苏的早期迹象，尽管业务水平仍将远低于战前水平。
Global hotel operators hurt by the US-Iran conflict should see early signs of a demand recovery in the Middle East as the region enters its peak travel season, though business will remain well below pre-war levels.
文/索菲亚·杰拉切 分析师估计显示，万豪国际集团和希尔顿全球控股公司在该地区的每间可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）将分别比第二季度增长约70%和65%，第二季度是因战争相关的旅行中断开始损害盈利的时期。
By Sofia Gerace Analyst estimates show Marriott International Inc.’s and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.’s revenue per available room in the region to rise about 70% and 65%, respectively, in the fourth quarter from the second, when war-related travel disruptions started hurting earnings.
万豪证券公司的住宿与休闲分析师帕特里克·肖尔斯表示，中东地区的酒店表现“不像冲突刚开始时那么疲软”，但“仍然深度负面”。气温转凉迎来了中东的旅游旺季，使得年底的最后几个月对酒店运营商至关重要。对万豪而言，第四季度通常占全年区域收入的约35%。这可能难以复制，因为短期内结束战争的前景依然渺茫。
Hotel performance in the Middle East is not “as weak as when the conflict first started,” said Patrick Scholes, a lodging and leisure analyst at Truist Securities Inc. “But it’s still deeply negative.”Cooler temperatures usher in the Middle East’s peak travel season, making the final months of the year critical for hotel operators. At Marriott, the fourth quarter typically accounts for about 35% of the annual regional revenue. That may be hard to replicate as the prospect of ending the war anytime soon remains elusive.
麦肯锡合伙人玛尔戈·康斯坦丁表示：“已经出现复苏，但这不是V型复苏。”
“There has been a recovery, but it’s not a V-shaped recovery,” said Margaux Constantin, a partner at McKinsey.
酒店市场研究机构STR的客户经理科斯塔斯·尼古拉伊迪斯表示，迪拜、阿布扎比、吉达和利雅得等关键市场在2026年最后一个季度的每间可供出租客房收入将比去年同期低30%。
Revenue per available room across the key markets of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Jeddah and Riyadh will be 30% lower in the last quarter of 2026 compared with the same time last year, according to Kostas Nikolaidis, associate account director at hotel market researcher STR.
在经历了一个异常强劲的2025年之后，这种对比尤为困难。根据联合国旅游组织的数据，中东地区去年接待了近1亿国际游客，比2019年多39%——这是全球所有地区相对于疫情前水平表现最强劲的。仅迪拜去年就创下了1960万国际游客的纪录。
The comparison is particularly difficult after an exceptionally strong 2025. The Middle East welcomed almost 100 million international tourists last year, 39% more than in 2019 — the strongest performance relative to pre-pandemic levels of any region globally, according to UN Tourism. Dubai alone had a record 19.6 million international visitors last year.
尼古拉伊迪斯表示：“目前我们预测该地区要到2028年才能恢复到2025年的水平。2025年是一个非常成功的年份。” 航班复航 外国航空公司恢复飞往该地区的航班将至关重要。
“At this point we don’t forecast the region to reach its 2025 levels until 2028,” Nikolaidis said. “2025 was an incredibly successful year.”Flight Resumptions The resumption of foreign carriers to the region will be crucial.
英国航空公司将于11月起恢复有限航班飞往迪拜，而其飞往阿布扎比的航班仍处于停飞状态。德国汉莎航空将于10月下旬恢复飞往迪拜的航班。法荷航旗下的荷兰皇家航空将在10月底前不运营飞往迪拜、利雅得和达曼的航班。
British Airways Plc will operate limited flights to Dubai from November, while its flights to Abu Dhabi remain suspended. Deutsche Lufthansa AG will resume flights to Dubai in late October. The KLM arm of Air France-KLM won’t operate flights to Dubai, Riyadh and Dammam before the end of October.
麦肯锡的Constantin表示：“如果你是长途旅客，看到自己的本国航空公司不飞往该目的地，即使你过去可能从未乘坐过它们，也不会给你带来令人安心的信号。”
“If you’re a long-haul traveler and you see your own home carrier not flying to the destination, even if you might have not flown with them, it doesn’t give you a comforting signal,” McKinsey’s Constantin said.
上周，一名FlyDubai飞行员在驾驶舱内遭同事袭击，乘客介入避免了从迪拜飞往特拉维夫的航班发生致命后果，这一事件进一步打击了旅客信心。该航空公司已在事件调查期间暂停往返以色列的航班。
Traveler sentiment was dented further by last week’s attack on a FlyDubai pilot by his colleague in the cockpit, where passengers intervened to avoid a fatal outcome on a flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv. The airline has suspended flights to and from Israel while the incident is investigated.
酒店业依赖近程需求。中东地区，特别是沙特阿拉伯，继续受益于国内和区域内旅行，得益于韧性十足的商务旅行和宗教旅游，后者仍是该国需求基础的重要组成部分。
Hotels have relied on demand closer to home. The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, has continued to benefit from domestic and intra-regional travel, supported by resilient business travel and religious tourism, which remains an important part of the country’s demand base.
万豪国际表示，第二季度中东地区每间可供出租客房收入下降43%，但这一表现好于预期，因为国内休闲需求帮助缓冲了跌幅。
Marriott said Middle East revenue per available room fell 43% in the second quarter, though that was better than expected as domestic leisure demand helped cushion the decline.
波士顿咨询公司合伙人Rylan Henriques表示：“国内和区域市场份额在为酒店提供基础入住率需求方面，起到了非常强的‘减震器’作用。”
“The share of domestic and regional played a very strong shock absorber effect when it came to continuing to provide occupancy baseline demand for hotels,” said Rylan Henriques, partner at Boston Consulting Group.
展望未来，麦肯锡的Constantin表示，国际旅客回归步伐不均，探亲访友和商务出行需求较强。促销活动也吸引了寻求优惠的旅客，这给营收带来压力，尤其是对豪华酒店而言。
Looking Ahead International travelers are returning unevenly, with demand stronger among those visiting friends and relatives or traveling for business, McKinsey’s Constantin said. Promotions are also attracting deal-seeking travelers, weighing on revenue particularly at luxury hotels.
大型活动的回归可能为市场提供支撑并延续至年底。一级方程式赛事计划于11月和12月分别在多哈和阿布扎比举行，阿布扎比古根海姆博物馆预计于12月开放，阿布扎比金融周以及迪拜世界贸易中心2026年剩余时段安排的多场活动也将陆续举行。
The return of major events may provide support through the end of the year, with Formula One races scheduled in Doha and Abu Dhabi in November and December, the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi due to open in December and Abu Dhabi Finance Week and several Dubai World Trade Centre events also on the calendar for the rest of 2026.
各大酒店集团对该地区的业务敞口各不相同。在全球主要酒店同业中，法国雅高集团对中东市场的敞口最大，万豪和希尔顿受到的影响则相对较小。雅高今年7月表示，受冲突影响，今年每间可出租客房收入增速将低于其中期目标。
Major hotel groups have varying exposure to the region with France’s Accor SA the most exposed to the Middle East among major hotel peers, while Marriott and Hilton are less affected. In July, Accor said this year’s revenue-per-available-room growth will be below its mid-term targets, citing the conflict.
康斯坦丁表示，在酒店项目公告方面，中东是全球最活跃的地区之一，但全球各大酒店集团几乎没有收缩其中东长期扩张计划的迹象。
Global hotel groups are showing little sign of pulling back from their longer-term expansion plans in the Middle East, one of the most active regions globally in terms of hotel pipeline announcements, Constantin said.
据房地产咨询公司卡文迪什·麦克斯韦尔的数据，雅高计划仅在沙特阿拉伯就新建47家酒店、增设逾1.14万间客房；洲际酒店集团则拟在该国新增62家酒店。到2028年，迪拜预计还将有9300间客房投入运营。“这显然证明，酒店运营商对这一地区充满信心。”康斯坦丁说。
Accor alone is planning 47 new hotels with more than 11,400 rooms in Saudi Arabia, while InterContinental Hotels Group Plc looks to add 62 hotels in the country. Dubai should see another 9,300 rooms come online by 2028, according to property consultant firm Cavendish Maxwell. “That is obviously a testament to the confidence that hotel operators have in this region,” Nikolaidis said.