股市周五高调收官，此前公布的月度就业报告给出了投资者期盼的“金发姑娘”式数据——既没有强劲到引发通胀担忧，也没有疲软到加剧衰退恐惧。尽管如此，这些涨幅仍不足以推动三大主要股指本周全线收涨。道指本周累计下跌1.26%，标普500指数下跌0.3%，近期熟悉的两大压力因素——油价高企和长期债券收益率上升——对市场多个板块构成拖累。
Stocks ended on a high note Friday after the monthly jobs report delivered the Goldilocks number investors wanted — not strong enough to stoke inflation, but not weak enough to raise recession fears. Still, the gains weren't enough to push all three major averages into positive territory for the week. The Dow posted a weekly loss of 1.26%, while the S & P 500 dropped 0.3%, as the recent usual suspects of elevated oil prices and rising long-term bond yields pressured many parts of the market.
只有纳斯达克指数勉强录得0.45%的涨幅，领涨的依然是人工智能相关需求。俱乐部持仓股英伟达周五创下自5月以来的首个历史新高，CrowdStrike、Palo Alto Networks和AMD也纷纷升至历史新高。以下是对上周推动我们投资组合走势的三大因素的深入分析。坏消息就是好消息有时候，一份疲软的经济数据恰恰是推动股市重新上涨所需的催化剂。
Only the Nasdaq managed to eke out a gain of 0.45%, led by — what else? — demand for all things artificial intelligence. Club stock Nvidia hit an all-time high on Friday for the first time since May, while CrowdStrike , Palo Alto Networks and AMD also all rose to all-time highs. Here's a closer look at the three developments that drove the action in our portfolio last week. Bad news is good news Sometimes a weak economic number is just what it takes to get stocks rising again.
9月非农就业报告显示，美国经济上月仅新增29,000个就业岗位，失业率升至4.2%。这远低于道琼斯共识预期的84,000个新增就业和4.1%的失业率。但这一数据疲软得恰到好处，足以提高美联储在10月底会议上维持利率不变而非加息的可能性。这也是周三公布的8月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——美联储偏好的通胀指标——低于预期所传递的信号。
September's nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs last month, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. That was well below the Dow Jones consensus of job growth of 84,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. But it was just soft enough to raise the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady at its late October meeting, rather than raise them. That was also the takeaway from Wednesday's cooler-than-expected August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
手握这两个重要数据点，市场目前定价美联储10月按兵不动的概率为78%，而一周前这一概率仅为36%，据CME FedWatch工具显示。周五的就业报告足以在经历整体艰难的一周后推动股市走高。道指周五上涨0.5%，标普500指数上涨0.7%，纳斯达克指数攀升1.2%，盘中一度创下历史新高，随后略有回落。
With both of these important data points in hand, the market is pricing in a 78% likelihood that the central bank will hold in October, compared with a 36% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The jobs report Friday was enough to push stocks higher after a tough week overall. The Dow added 0.5% Friday, the S & P gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.2%, hitting an all-time high earlier in the day before retreating slightly from those levels.
还有一些好消息确实不错：油价——由于伊朗战争持续，油价长期拖累股市——周五出现回落，进一步支撑了股市，此前有报道称欧洲各国正在考虑释放战略燃料储备。美光的乐观前景美光周三再次交出了令人惊艳的季度业绩，但更关键的是管理层对供需失衡以及强劲股票回购前景的看法。营收同比激增379%，达到542.3亿美元，而经调整每股收益为33.42美元，同样超出预期。
And some good news was, well, good: Oil prices — long a drag on stocks as the war in Iran drags on — pulled back Friday, further supporting stocks, after a report that European nation-states are considering releasing strategic fuel reserves. Micron's bright outlook Micron delivered another blowout quarter Wednesday, but the bigger takeaway was management's outlook on the supply-demand imbalance and the prospect for a powerful stock buyback. Revenue surged 379% from a year ago to $54.23 billion, while adjusted earnings of $33.42 per share also beat expectations.
美光预计这一势头将持续，并指引2027财年第一季度营收为615亿美元，经调整每股收益为38.15美元，两项数据均高于华尔街的预测。
Micron expects the momentum to continue, guiding for $61.5 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and $38.15 in adjusted EPS, both ahead of Wall Street estimates.
然而，由于投资者关注其扩大制造产能的计划，股价仍面临压力，本周下跌0.7%。市场担忧的是，增加供应最终可能压低内存价格及利润。不过，美光预计2027年和2028年的市场条件将比2026年更为紧张，其2027年预期产量的约75%已有订单锁定。此外，公司已签署26份战略客户协议，高于上一季度的16份，从而更清晰地了解未来需求。
Still, shares came under pressure , ending the week down 0.7%, as investors focused on plans to spend more on manufacturing capacity. The concern is that adding supply could eventually drive down memory prices and profits. But Micron expects conditions to be even tighter in 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026, with roughly 75% of its expected 2027 output already spoken for. It has also signed 26 strategic customer agreements, up from 16 last quarter, providing greater visibility into future demand.
我们正在关注财报发布后的疲软表现之外的前景。Jim称未来几年的前景是“我听过最好的”。另一个催化剂可能出现在12月，届时《芯片法案》的资金限制将放宽，使美光能够将不断增长的现金储备用于大规模股票回购。我们将目标价从1100美元上调至1200美元，并重申“相当于买入”的1级评级。英伟达的大规模回购英伟达给了投资者Jim一直呼吁的东西：一次规模更大的股票回购。这家芯片制造商批准了额外1500亿美元的股票回购，使其剩余回购授权总额达到2350亿美元。
We're looking past the post-earnings weakness. Jim called the outlook for the next couple of years "the best that I've ever heard." Another catalyst could come in December, when CHIPS Act funding restrictions ease, allowing Micron to deploy its growing cash pile toward a significant buyback . We raised our price target to $1,200 from $1,100 and reiterated our buy-equivalent 1 rating. Nvidia's bigger buyback Nvidia gave investors something Jim has been calling for: a much bigger buyback. The chipmaker authorized an additional $150 billion in share repurchases , bringing its remaining authorization to $235 billion.
华尔街预计，英伟达在未来六个季度内将产生约4400亿美元的自由现金流，这将为管理层提供充足的资金用于回购股票，而无需牺牲维持其人工智能领导地位所必需的投资。鉴于英伟达的业务表现与股价表现存在脱节，此举尤为重要。今年其股价已上涨约24%，但在iShares半导体ETF中仍属于表现较弱的股票之一，尽管其调整后每股收益已连续两个季度翻了一番多。
Wall Street expects Nvidia to generate roughly $440 billion in free cash flow over the next six quarters, giving management ample firepower to repurchase shares without sacrificing investments needed to maintain its AI leadership. The move is especially important given the disconnect between Nvidia's business and stock performance. Shares are up roughly 24% this year, but rank among the weaker performers in the iShares Semiconductor ETF , even as adjusted EPS has more than doubled in back-to-back quarters.
幸运的是，该股近期已开始表现更佳，周五甚至突破了此前5月份创下的日内历史高点，尽管未能创下收盘纪录。不过，这一扩大的回购计划仍进一步增强了当前的投资逻辑。此次回购规模增加1500亿美元，虽低于吉姆此前提出的5000亿美元目标，但仍是让英伟达庞大的现金创造能力为股东创造价值的重大一步。正如吉姆在周五的晨会中所说，英伟达管理层已向投资者表明，目前最值得持有的资产就是英伟达股票。
Thankfully, the stock has started to trade better, and on Friday it punched through its old May all-time intraday high, though it failed to score a record close. The enhanced buyback program, nevertheless, strengthens the investment case from here. The $150 billion increase falls short of the $500 billion Jim had called for, but it's a major step toward putting Nvidia's enormous cash generation to work for shareholders. As Jim said during Friday's Morning Meeting , Nvidia management has shown investors the best thing to own right now is Nvidia stock.
本周该股最终以3.95%的涨幅收市。（此处可查阅吉姆·克ramer慈善信托基金所持有的全部股票列表。）
Shares finished up 3.95% this week. ()