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政治报

共和党人在今年的中期选举中没有明确的假想敌Republicans don’t have a clear boogeyman for this year’s midterms

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今年,共和党人试图寻找新的“替罪羊”,以对抗所谓的民主社会主义以及“激进”的左派势力——佐赫兰·马姆达尼、亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯以及伯尼·桑德斯。不过,至少在竞选广告中,被提及次数最多的还是前总统乔·拜登。

Republicans have tried to find a new boogeyman this year as they rail against Democratic socialism and the “radical” left: Zohran Mamdani. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Bernie Sanders. Still more mentioned than all of them, at least in campaign ads: former President Joe Biden.

《政治报》对近几个月来在关键众议院及参议院选区播出的数百条广告进行的分析显示,共和党人基本上并未在付费媒体中利用这些进步派代表人物来攻击民主党。相反,在本轮选举周期中,拜登是共和党广告中最常被提及的民主党人,其名字出现在数十场竞选广告中。

A POLITICO review of hundreds of ads running in battleground House and Senate races in recent months shows Republicans largely haven’t seized on progressive icons in paid media. Instead, Biden is the Democrat most likely to be mentioned in GOP ads this cycle, coming up across dozens of races.

唐纳德·特朗普总统经常试图将物价高涨及其他治理难题归咎于拜登。然而自卸任以来,由于拜登基本淡出公众视野,他已不再是共和党人理想的攻击对象。据AdImpact的数据显示,在2024年选举周期的同一时期,已有超过1000条共和党众议院及参议院竞选广告提及了拜登。

President Donald Trump has frequently sought to blame Biden for high prices and other challenges that his administration has faced. Even so, the former president has become a far less useful punching bag for Republicans since leaving office and remaining largely out of the spotlight: At this time in the 2024 cycle, Biden had been mentioned in more than 1,000 Republican House and Senate ads, according to AdImpact data.

这些数据反映出:为说服选民相信民主党掌控国会将带来更糟糕的后果,共和党人始终难以确定一个明确的“反派角色”。他们针对拜登、前众议院议长南希·佩洛西等老牌民主党人物的警告已不再像以往那样奏效;同时,他们也未能如愿抓住那些新兴的民主社会主义者作为攻击目标。

The data illustrates how Republicans have been unable to land on a clear villain as they seek to convince voters that Democratic control of Congress would be worse than keeping the GOP in charge. Their warnings about old establishment figures like Biden and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi don’t land like they once did. But they also haven’t been able to seize on emerging democratic socialists like they had hoped to.

相比之下,对民主党而言,最理想的“攻击对象”显而易见:物价持续高企、伊朗战争仍在持续,而特朗普的支持率则徘徊在30%左右。

Democrats’ foil, meanwhile, has never been more obvious, with Trump’s approval rating in the mid-thirties amid continued high prices and the Iran war.

“对共和党人来说,没人能比得上佩洛西的‘攻击价值’——部分原因在于《平价医疗法案》的投票事件堪称关键转折点,还有那句‘我们必须先通过法案才能知道具体内容’。”长期为共和党效力的道格·海耶说道。他还提到自己至今仍保留着2010年共和党中期选举大胜时发放的“赶走佩洛西”纪念品。当年,佩洛西正是共和党竞选宣传的核心攻击目标。

“No one will match the level of Pelosi for Republicans, in part because the Obamacare vote was such a touchstone moment. And the ‘we have to pass it to find out what’s in it,’” said Doug Heye, a longtime Republican operative who noted he still has “Fire Pelosi” swag from the Republicans’ successful 2010 midterm rout. The then-speaker was central to the GOP’s campaign message that year.

对共和党人而言,面临的挑战之一在于民主党缺乏一位具有号召力的领袖。佩洛西于2023年初卸任民主党领袖职务,而她的继任者、众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯(纽约州民主党人)并未引发共和党人的强烈敌意。据POLITICO的分析,在佩洛西担任民主党领袖的最后一年——2022年,有超过80条共和党广告提及她的名字。如今,提及她的广告已寥寥无几;据POLITICO对广告文本的梳理,今年在关键选区的电视广告中甚至完全没有出现杰弗里斯的名字。

Part of the challenge for Republicans comes from Democrats’ lack of a clear leader. Pelosi stepped down from Democratic leadership at the start of 2023, and her successor, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) does not elicit the same animus from Republicans. In the 2022 cycle, her last term as Democratic leader, Pelosi was invoked in more than 80 GOP ads, POLITICO’s analysis found. Now, she’s mentioned just a handful of times, while Jeffries hasn’t been mentioned in any battleground TV ads this year, according to the POLITICO review of transcripts.

2022年和2024年,拜登一直是共和党攻击的靶子,共和党人将高通胀与生活成本上涨的责任归咎于他。如今,多项民调显示:即便特朗普试图转移责任,选民们也更倾向于认为特朗普而非拜登应对当前美国经济状况负责。

Biden was an easy target for the GOP in 2022 and 2024, when Republicans blamed him for high inflation and the cost of living. Now, poll after poll shows that voters are more likely to hold Trump — not Biden — responsible for the current state of the U.S. economy, even as Trump tries to redirect the blame.

即便是作为2024年民主党总统候选人的卡玛拉·哈里斯,在本轮竞选周期中出现在付费广告中的频率也低于拜登。至于其他潜在的未来民主党总统候选人,只有加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森以及奥卡西奥-科尔特斯被共和党人用作攻击对象,但提及频率仍不及哈里斯和拜登。

Even Kamala Harris, the most recent Democratic standard-bearer as their 2024 nominee, is named less often in paid media this cycle than Biden. And among other potential future Democratic presidential candidates, only California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez appear as Republican foils — and not as often as Harris or Biden.

共和党人常将奥卡西奥-科尔特斯与桑德斯相提并论,尤其是在试图把关键选区的民主党候选人与党内进步派势力挂钩时。在密歇根州竞争激烈的联邦参议员选举中,前公共卫生官员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德获得了两人的支持,这一情况被他的对手迈克·罗杰斯及多家共和党外部团体加以利用。

Ocasio-Cortez is often mentioned by Republicans in the same sentence as Sanders, especially when the GOP seeks to tie Democrats in battleground races to the party’s progressive wing. In Michigan’s hotly contested Senate race, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed was endorsed by both — something his opponent Mike Rogers and GOP outside groups have seized on.

“埃尔-赛义德得到了像奥卡西奥-科尔特斯、伊丽莎白·沃伦以及伯尼·桑德斯这样的极端自由派人士的支持,”保守派超级政治行动委员会“哨兵行动基金”近期发布的一则广告这样说道。

“El Sayed is endorsed by extreme liberals like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders,” one recent ad from the conservative super PAC Sentinel Action Fund says.

一些共和党人即便在没有任何关联的情况下,也试图将民主党候选人与进步派联系起来加以攻击:今年早些时候,德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特及该州共和党财政部长投放了一则广告,声称要对抗奥卡西奥-科尔特斯、桑德斯以及所谓的“新激进左翼”。不过桑德斯和奥卡西奥-科尔特斯均未在这两场选举中表态支持任何一方。

Some Republicans have sought to run against the progressives even when there are no such ties: One ad that ran earlier this year from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the state’s GOP comptroller promised to stand up to Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders and the “new radical left.”Neither Sanders nor Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed in either race.

通常情况下,共和党会在数十个众议院关键选区以及几乎所有重要的参议院选举中投放广告,试图将民主党候选人与社会主义或共产主义等理念挂钩。就在本周,特朗普政府还发起了一场耗资2000万美元的全国性广告攻势,资金由国土安全部提供;广告中特朗普严厉抨击“共产主义、社会主义和马克思主义”。然而,当涉及像纽约市市长马姆达尼这样的具体政治人物时,情况就变得复杂起来。

Most often, the GOP has run ads seeking to tie Democratic candidates to socialism or communism — the concepts themselves — in dozens of House battleground races and nearly every major Senate race. Just this week, the Trump administration launched a national $20 million DHS-funded campaign-style ad spree that features Trump lambasting “communism, socialism, and Marxism.”But when it comes to specific political figures — like Mamdani, New York City’s mayor — it gets complicated.

去年马姆达尼首次当选时,共和党人曾满心期待能把他当作攻击民主党的最佳靶子。但上任一年来,他的支持率稳步上升,这使得共和党难以再利用他的执政表现来打击民主党。

Republicans once salivated at the prospect of Mamdani as a foil when he was first elected last year. But his first year in office has largely boosted his standing with voters, complicating efforts to turn his tenure into a negative for Democrats.

更令共和党头疼的是,特朗普出人意料地持续力挺这位纽约市市长——就在上周,总统还公开表示支持马姆达尼,并希望他能“成为一名出色的市长”。这一举动进一步加大了共和党将马姆达尼塑造成“反面典型”的难度。

Trump’s surprising continued embrace of the New York City mayor — just last week, the president stood by Mamdani and said he hoped he would “be a great mayor” — has further complicated GOP efforts to paint him as a villain.

在纽约几个摇摆不定的国会选区,共和党人仍试图将对手与曼达尼扯上关系,而民主党人则对这种关联予以反击。在特朗普两年前以超过20个百分点优势赢得的纽约第21选区,民主党籍奶牛农场主布莱克·根德比恩投放了一则广告,声称他的共和党对手想让选民认为他“是在与佐兰·曼达尼对抗”,但“这纯属无稽之谈”。

In a handful of swingy New York congressional districts, Republicans have still attempted to tie their opponents to Mamdani, while Democrats have pushed back on the connection. In New York’s 21st District, which Trump won by more than 20 points two years ago, Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien ran an ad arguing that his Republican opponent wants voters to think he’s “running against Zohran Mamdani” but “that’s a load of bull.”

几十年来,共和党一直将知名民主党人贴上“社会主义者”的标签。今年,随着进步派在一系列激烈竞争的初选中获胜,一些民主党人担心,与民主社会党有关联的人物崛起,会让共和党在普选中轻易找到攻击借口。

The GOP has characterized prominent Democrats as socialist for decades. As progressives won a series of contested primaries this year, some Democrats worried the rise of figures with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America would give Republicans easy ammunition for the general election.

然而,“社会主义者”这一标签或许已不再像过去那样具有冲击力。

But being called a “socialist” may not have the same shock value it once did.

“我认为,仅仅称某个候选人为‘社会主义者’,对共和党来说已经不再那么有效,尤其是在竞选进入最后阶段时,”长期为共和党进行民意调查的专家马特·托里表示。“如果候选人能聚焦于民主社会党纲领中的某些内容,并真实可信地将这些主张归咎于对手,那或许还有效。但共和党人只是假设人们会对‘社会主义者’这个词产生负面反应,而这个词如今已不再像过去那样引发同样的反应。”

“I don’t think just calling a candidate ‘socialist’ works that well for Republicans, particularly this late in the game,” said Matt Towery, a longtime GOP pollster. “If a candidate focuses on parts of the DSA’s platform and can authentically pin it on their opponent, that might work. But Republicans just assume people have a bad reaction to the term socialist, and the term doesn’t elicit the same reaction it used to.”