无论选举结果如何，投资者预计周日投票后巴西市场将出现剧烈波动。由于总统竞选双方势均力敌，投票前交易员一直不敢作出过于押注单边的判断，各项资产预计将迅速重新定价。
Investors are expecting sharp swings in Brazilian markets in the aftermath of Sunday’s elections no matter the outcome, with assets to adjust quickly as the neck-and-neck presidential race prevented traders from taking too strong a view in the lead up to the vote.
作者：乔瓦娜·贝洛蒂·阿泽维多与莱达·阿尔维姆 据专注选举和政治事件的投资基金Zaftra联合创始人毛里西奥·莫拉表示，如果总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在首轮投票中领先超过四个百分点，他的领先地位将得到巩固，并在10月25日的决选中占据优势；这可能对股市构成压力、导致掉期利率曲线陡峭化，并可能给巴西雷亚尔带来下行压力。
By Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo and Leda Alvim A lead of more than four percentage points for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first-round vote would reinforce his status as a front-runner in a Oct. 25 runoff and could weigh on equities, steepen the swap rates curve, and potentially put pressure on the real, according to Mauricio Moura, co-founder of Zaftra, an investment fund focused on elections and political events.
如果差距缩小，甚至出现平局，则被视为相对更有利于弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，可能推动市场上涨，因为投资者希望这位右翼候选人能实施力度较大的财政调整，而投资者将这种调整视为关键因素。
A smaller gap — or a tie — would be seen as relatively more favorable for Flávio Bolsonaro, potentially sparking a rally on hopes the right-wing candidate would deliver a strong fiscal adjustment investors see as key.
范埃克Associates Corporation新兴市场首席经济学家纳塔利娅·古鲁希娜说：“市场会为正统财政政策的重大转向给予丰厚回报，这正是投资者继续紧盯巴西总统选举首轮投票结果的原因。”不过，她补充说，如果结果令人“失望”，胶着的民调数据仍为市场抛售留下了空间。
“Orthodox fiscal policy U-turns are handsomely rewarded by the market, which is why investors remain fixated on the first round of Brazil’s presidential election,” said Natalia Gurushina, chief economist for emerging markets at Van Eck Associates Corporation. The tight polls, however, leave the door open to a selloff should the result prove “disappointing,” she added.
反弹还是崩盘 赫里蒂奇资本合伙公司投资组合经理爱德华多·科恩建立了“轻仓”头寸，以便在博索纳罗获胜时获益。他看好长期NTN-B债券，即巴西与通胀挂钩的政府债券，认为如果这位右翼候选人胜选，实际收益率仍有下行空间。
Rally or Rout Eduardo Cohn, portfolio manager at Heritage Capital Partners, built “marginal” positions that would benefit from a Bolsonaro win. He likes long-dated NTN-Bs, Brazil’s inflation-linked government bonds, seeing room for real yields to compress if the right-wing candidate prevails.
摩根大通估计，在财政状况改善的情景下，巴西雷亚尔可能升值约6%，地方政府债券收益率可能升至约13%，股市较当前水平最多上涨50%。根据该行9月29日发布的一份报告，在财政状况逐步恶化的情况下，巴西雷亚尔可能贬值约6%，债券收益率可能升至约15.5%，股市可能下跌21%。
JPMorgan has estimated that a fiscal-improvement scenario could send the real about 6% higher, push local government bond yields toward 13% and lift equities as much as 50% from current levels. Under incremental fiscal deterioration, it sees the real weakening about 6%, bond yields rising toward 15.5% and equities falling 21%, according to a note from Sept. 29.
彭博经济研究预测，若博索纳罗胜选，10年期国债收益率可能下降70个基点，巴西雷亚尔汇率也将上涨近3%。反之，若卢拉获胜，长期国债收益率可能飙升近100个基点，雷亚尔汇率跌幅或超3.5%。据彭博情报分析，由于市场对利率走势存在大量投机性押注，若现任总统表现优于预期，利率曲线极有可能出现剧烈反转。
Bloomberg Economics projects a Bolsonaro win could lower 10-year yields by 70 basis points and strengthen the currency by almost 3%. Conversely, a Lula victory could trigger a jump of almost 100 basis points in long yields, and weaken the real by more than 3.5%. Crowded bets on the rates curve leave it open to a sharp reversal if the incumbent outperforms, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
值得关注的交易标的：希望于周日晚间迅速对选举结果作出反应的交易员可关注日本Next Funds推出的伊波维斯帕指数挂钩ETF，该基金追踪巴西基准股指伊波维斯帕指数。芝加哥商品交易所的货币衍生品价格也可能随选举结果出现波动。
Assets to Watch Traders looking to react to election results as soon as Sunday night will turn to Japan’s Next Funds Ibovespa Linked ETF, which tracks the benchmark Ibovespa index. Currency derivatives at the CME exchange could also move on the vote.
欧洲市场开盘后，投资者目光或将转向法兰克福与伦敦的相关ETF；随后美国上市的EWZ基金将于美国东部时间凌晨4点开启盘前交易。
As European markets open, attention may shift to ETFs in Frankfurt and London, before pre-market trading in the US-listed EWZ, starting at 4 a.m. ET.
相关交易标的包括：Next Funds伊波维斯帕指数挂钩ETF（东京）、Xtrackers MSCI巴西UCITS ETF（法兰克福）、iShares MSCI巴西UCITS ETF美元分红型（伦敦）、Lyxor MSCI巴西UCITS ETF（巴黎）、iShares MSCI巴西ETF（纽约）、富兰克林富时巴西ETF（纽约）、Direxion每日两倍做多MSCI巴西股票基金（纽约）以及ProShares两倍做空MSCI巴西股票基金（纽约）。巴西当地交易于圣保罗时间上午9点启动，届时将进行货币、掉期利率及股票期货交易；股票市场则于上午10点开市。
Next Funds Ibovespa Linked ETF (Tokyo) Xtrackers MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (Frankfurt) iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD Dist (London) Lyxor MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (Paris) iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (New York) Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (New York) Direxion Daily MSCI Brazil Bull 2X Shares (New York) ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil Capped (New York) Local trading begins at 9 a.m. Sao Paulo time, with the currency, swap rates and equity futures. Stocks open at 10 a.m.
信贷市场方面：部分以美元计价的巴西政府及企业债券在欧洲交易所上市交易，其价格可能随选举结果出现波动。信用违约互换合约全天均可交易，不过美国交易时段之外市场流动性相对较弱。
Credit Some of Brazil’s government and corporate dollar-denominated bonds are traded in European exchanges and may see price action. Credit default swap contracts trade all day, although liquidity is thinner outside of US hours.
巴西3¾年期债券，到期日09/12/31；巴西7⅛年期债券，到期日01/20/37；巴西5⅝年期债券，到期日01/07/41。PETBRA发行的6.85年期债券，到期日06/05/2115；PETBRA发行的5.6年期债券，到期日01/03/31；VALEBZ发行的3¾年期债券，到期日07/08/30。此外还有巴西美元计价5年期信用违约互换产品，到期日D14。
BRAZIL 3 ¾ 09/12/31 BRAZIL 7 ⅛ 01/20/37 BRAZIL 5 ⅝ 01/07/41 PETBRA 6.85 06/05/2115 PETBRA 5.6 01/03/31 VALEBZ 3 ¾ 07/08/30 BRAZIL CDS USD SR 5Y D14 Stocks In the event of a Bolsonaro win, Citigroup Inc. favors longer-duration and domestically exposed stocks, including homebuilder Cyrela SA and apparel retailer C&A Modas SA.
若博索纳罗胜选，花旗集团建议投资者选择久期较长且业务主要扎根国内的股票，比如房地产开发商Cyrela SA以及服装零售商C&A Modas SA。一份报告指出，资本市场活跃度的回升也可能带动B3 SA和XP Inc.等公司股价上涨。若卢拉胜选，花旗的策略分析师则推荐那些具备“全天候”投资价值的股票，即那些拥有定价能力的企业，例如巴西航空工业公司Embraer SA、WEG SA以及Axia Energia SA。
A revival in capital markets activity could also boost companies like B3 SA and XP Inc., according to a report. In a Lula win, Citi strategists favor “all-weather” stocks, including companies with pricing power such as Embraer SA, WEG SA and Axia Energia SA.