随着民调显示右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗与现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦之间的竞争十分胶着，投资者正在加大对巴西总统决选的对冲力度。
Investors are ramping up hedges ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff as polls point to a tight race between right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and the incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
巴西雷亚尔一个月期风险反转——反映期权交易者为防范货币贬值而愿意支付的溢价——升至 9%，为 2011 年以来的最高水平。
One-month risk reversals on the real — which reflect the premium options traders are willing to pay to protect against a weaker currency — climbed to 9%, the highest since 2011.
股市情绪也发生了转变，投资者寻求防范 Ibovespa 指数下跌的保护。看跌期权的未平仓合约激增，而看涨期权的需求较 10 月初的峰值下降了 30% 以上，两者之间的差距基本消失。
Sentiment has also shifted in the equity markets, with investors seeking for protection against a decline in the Ibovespa index. Open interest in puts has jumped, while the demand for calls has dropped more than 30% from the early-October peak, making the gap between them largely disappear.
市场重燃谨慎之际，AtlasIntel 昨天发布的民调显示，博尔索纳罗获得 51% 的选票，卢拉获得 49%——处于误差范围内。博尔索纳罗在首轮投票中意外领先这位左翼候选人，引发了多年来巴西资产最大规模的反弹，雷亚尔一度上涨多达 5%，基准 Ibovespa 指数单日飙升 8%。
The market’s renewed caution comes as an AtlasIntel poll from yesterday showed Bolsonaro with 51% of the votes, while Lula has 49% — within the margin of error. Bolsonaro’s strong first-round showing, when he unexpectedly finished ahead of the leftist, triggered the biggest rally in Brazilian assets in years, with the real gaining as much as 5% and the benchmark Ibovespa index jumping 8% in a single day.
“首轮投票后，市场反弹并几乎完全定价了博尔索纳罗获胜 100% 的概率，但卢拉在追踪民调和调查中的表现有所改善，”Persevera Asset Management 的股票经理 Lucca Silva 表示。“期权成为市场开始交易这种二元情景的方式。”iShares MSCI Brazil ETF 的一个月期风险反转是新冠疫情以来最昂贵的，而国内指数的看跌期权溢价是 2025 年 4 月以来最高的。
“After the first round, the market rallied and moved to price in an almost 100% probability of a Bolsonaro victory, but Lula improved in tracking polls and surveys,” said Lucca Silva, an equity manager at Persevera Asset Management. “Options became the way the market started trading such a binary scenario.”One-month risk reversals on iShares MSCI Brazil ETF are the most expensive since Covid and on the domestic index the put premium is the highest since April 2025.
这位参议员、前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的长子，鲜有披露其经济主张的细节，但投资者预期博尔索纳罗政府将更加财政审慎，削减开支并帮助为降低利率创造空间。
While the senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has provided few details on his economic proposals, investors expect a Bolsonaro administration to be more fiscally prudent, cutting spending and helping create room for lower interest rates.