投资者紧张情绪在巴西总统大选决选前升温，推高了对冲成本。记者 Barbara Nascimento 和 David Marino 报道 虽然法里亚利马金融圈的基本预期仍是弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗将巩固其首轮领先于路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的优势，但过去几周里，一些最热门的看跌期权价格已翻倍，这些期权用于防范追踪巴西股市主要 ETF 下跌的风险。当地货币和股指的波动率指标升至疫情以来最高水平。
Investor jitters are kicking in ahead of Brazil’s presidential election runoff, sending the cost of hedging surging. By Barbara Nascimento and David Marino While the base case across Faria Lima remains for Flávio Bolsonaro to confirm his first-round advantage over Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, some of the most popular put options protecting against a decline in the main ETF tracking Brazilian stocks have doubled in price over the past couple of weeks. Measures of volatility in the local currency and the equities index are the highest since the pandemic.
随着对看空押注的需求增加，期权价格飙升——给想要在民调显示竞争胶着之际为投资组合增加保护的投资者制造了麻烦。
As demand for bearish bets grows, prices spiked — creating trouble for investors who want to add protection to portfolios as polls show the race tightening.
截至周三，iShares MSCI 巴西 ETF 11 月到期、行权价 38 美元的看跌期权报 1.55 美元，较首轮选举后三周前的交易价格翻了一倍多。看跌期权的高额权利金，即隐含波动率微笑曲线的斜度，扩大至 2020 年新冠疫情以来的最宽水平，尽管该 ETF 本身价格变化不大。
The November $38 put on the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was worth $1.55 as of Wednesday, more than double where it was trading three weeks ago following the first round of the election. The steep premium for puts, or the skew, reached the widest level since the Covid pandemic in 2020, even as the ETF was little changed.
防范指数下跌的成本上涨如此之多，以至于看涨价差期权的需求开始回升，这表明部分交易员正用期权押注取代现货市场上的看涨头寸。
The cost of protecting against a drop in the index has risen so much that demand for call spreads has started to pick up again, a sign some traders are replacing bullish positions in the cash market with options bets.
在货币市场，风险反转——衡量期权交易员为防范雷亚尔贬值而愿意支付的权利金溢价的指标——本周升至 12% 左右，为 2008 年以来最高。
In the currency market, risk reversals — a measure of the premium options traders are willing to pay to protect against a weaker real — rose to around 12% this week, the highest since 2008.
据彭博情报分析，期权价格飙升因技术因素而加剧：向客户卖出期权结构性产品的交易商正争相对冲自身敞口，进一步推高了价格。
The spike in options prices has been aggravated by a technical factor, according to Bloomberg Intelligence: dealers who sold option structures to clients are now scrambling to hedge their own exposure, pushing prices even higher.