波黑：死者不再投票，但结果依旧德拉甘·马克西莫维奇2026年10月5日新技术阻止了代死者或缺席者投票，投票率跌至历史新低。但在波黑的选举中，依然是似曾相识的一幕：同样的政党沿着族裔界限获胜。周日波黑大选的投票率创下历史新低（40%）波黑于10月4日举行大选，引入了旨在终结多年舞弊的新技术。
Bosnia: The dead no longer vote, but the outcome is the same Dragan Maksimovic October 5, 2026 New technology has stopped votes being cast on behalf of dead or absent voters, and turnout has fallen to a record low. But it was a case of deja vu in Bosnia's elections with the same parties winning along ethnic lines. Voter turnout in the Bosnian elections reached a record low (40%) on Sunday Bosnia and Herzegovina went to the polls on October 4 with new technology that was meant to end years of vote-rigging.
主要弊端是以已故选民的名义投票，这些人的名字在过时的选民名册上滞留多年。
Chief among the abuses was the casting of ballots in the name of deceased voters who had lingered for years on outdated voter rolls.
投票率略超40%，为1995年波黑战争结束以来最低。部分原因在于旧伎俩不再奏效。
At just over 40%, turnout was the lowest since the Bosnian War ended in 1995. That is partly because the old tricks no longer worked.
早前选举中，指控不断浮现：有人以已故或早已移居国外者的名义投票；也有人指控选民重复投票，或在投票结束后塞入空白选票以虚高投票率。新技术被引入本次选举以试图阻止舞弊塞满亡故者或出国者姓名的选民名册，成为此类舞弊的完美工具。新技术，同旧政治这一次，每个投票站都采用了生物识别指纹核验。这意味着波黑历史上首次实现了选举透明。然而，本次选举最大的看点并非技术层面。
In earlier elections, allegations kept surfacing that votes were being cast in the name of people who had died or long since moved abroad. Others said voters cast their ballot multiple times or that blank ballots were added after polls closed to make the turnout look higher. New technology was introduced in these elections in an attempt to stop vote-rigging The voter registry, packed with names of people who had passed away or left the country, was the perfect tool for all of this. New technology, same old politics This time, however, every polling station used biometric fingerprint checks. This meant that for the first time ever, the elections in Bosnia were transparent. Still, the biggest story of this election is not technical.
三个民族主义政党各自在其社区获胜：塞族的SNSD、波族的SDA和克族的HDZ BiH。死者虽已从选民名册中划除，但政治格局寸步未移。
Three nationalist parties won, each within its own community the SNSD among Serbs, the SDA among Bosniaks and the HDZ BiH among Croats. The dead may have been struck from the voter rolls, but politics has not moved an inch.
对于对波斯尼亚知之甚少的读者来说，一点背景有助于1995年代顿和平协议结束战争，但它也将该国分裂为两个实体：塞族占多数的塞族共和国和波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那联邦，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那占多数。
For readers who know Bosnia only vaguely, a little background helps 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement ended the war, but it also split the country into two entities: Republika Srpska, which has a Serb majority, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has a Bosniak-Croat majority.
由三名成员组成的总统团管理国家，三个民族中的每一个都选举自己的成员。
A three-member presidency runs the state, and each of the three peoples elects its own member.
这就是为什么这里的选举很少与工资和价格有关，而几乎总是与谁被视为对谁的威胁有关。
That is why elections here are rarely about wages and prices and are instead almost always about who is perceived to be a threat to whom.
塞族共和国和波斯尼亚最有权势的塞族政治家米洛拉德·多迪克的回归，这次选举是一次政治复活。
Republika Srpska and the return of a fallen leader Milorad Dodik the most powerful Serb politician in Bosnia, this election was a political resurrection.
2025年，多迪克因藐视监督1995年和平进程的高级国际特使高级代表而被判六年内不得担任公职。
In 2025, Dodik was barred from holding public office for six years after being convicted of defying the high representative the top international envoy overseeing the 1995 peace process.
他于2022年受到美国制裁，尽管这些制裁已于去年年底解除。即便如此，他的政党SNSD在塞族共和国几乎横扫了萨沃·米尼奇成为塞族共和国总统，泽利卡·茨维亚诺维奇保住了塞族的总统席位。两人都是SNSD的成员。
He was sanctioned by the US in 2022, although those sanctions were lifted late last year. Even so, his party, the SNSD, virtually swept the board in Republika Srpska Savo Minic became president of Republika Srpska, and Zeljka Cvijanovic kept the Serb seat in the presidency. Both are members of the SNSD.
该党在实体议会中也表现出色。制裁和多迪克的定罪以及失去授权都没有伤害到该党。选民不是在选择一个人。他们在选择自己的立场。“塞族共和国前总统米洛拉德·多迪克表示，他的政党保留了在塞族占多数的实体中的权力及其在国家一级共同总统职位中的席位，多迪克不失时机地宣布了接下来的事情。
The party also did very well in the entity's parliament. Neither the sanctions nor Dodik's conviction and the loss of his mandate hurt the party. Voters were not choosing an individual. They were choosing their "side." Milorad Dodik, the former President of Republika Srpska, says his party has retained power in the majority-Serb entity and its seat on the shared presidency at national level Dodik lost no time in declaring what comes next.
他宣布回归他所说的“最初的代顿”。“在实践中，这意味着取消国家自1995年以来获得的权力--从司法部门到军队。对于外部观察者来说，这听起来像是一个技术短语。事实上，这是一个逐步瓦解国家的计划。
He announced a return to what he refers to as the "original Dayton." In practice, that means undoing the powers the state has gained since 1995 — from the judiciary to the army. To an outside observer, that sounds like a technical phrase. In reality, it is a program for dismantling the state step by step.
“这意味着我们将把军队、边境警察、情报机构以及高级代表们曾经夺走的一切归还给塞族共和国，”多迪克表示。塞族与克罗地亚族之间的交易？
"That means we are returning the army to Republika Srpska, the border police, the intelligence service and everything that the high representatives once took away," said Dodik. A deal between Serbs and Croats?
反对派未能提出任何有力的抵抗。他们内部四分五裂，且缺乏有说服力的政治主张。
The opposition offered no serious resistance. It was divided and had no convincing message.
那些不想要多迪克的选民无处可投，因此大多数人选择待在家中。低投票率有利于拥有最严密政党机器的阵营。
Voters who did not want Dodik had nowhere to turn, so most stayed home. Low turnout favored the side with the most disciplined party machine.
这提出了一个将决定波斯尼亚未来一年走向的问题。多迪克的定罪使他未能直接参与此次选举的角逐。但几个月来，一直有关于解决之道的传闻。
That raises a question that will shape what happens in Bosnia in the coming year. Dodik's conviction kept him out of the direct race in these elections. But for months, there has been talk of a way out.
如果塞族民主联盟（SNSD）和克罗地亚民主联盟（HDZ BiH）的代表进入总统委员会，他们可能会赦免他——无论第三任委员如何决定。波斯尼亚媒体报道称，这是多迪克与克罗地亚民主联盟领导人德拉甘·科维奇之间的一项选前协议。随后，多迪克可以重返塞族共和国总理一职，他曾担任过该职务。
If representatives of the SNSD and the HDZ BiH enter the presidency, they could pardon him — whatever the third member decides. Bosnian media have reported that this was a pre-election deal between Dodik and the HDZ BiH leader, Dragan Covic. Dodik could then return as prime minister of Republika Srpska, a post he has held before.
波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那联邦：三方联盟落败 波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那联邦的情况有所不同，但结果相同。
Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Troika defeated The picture in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is different, but the outcome is the same.
“我们地区的未来不在于采纳俄罗斯模式，而在于欧洲模式。给欧盟的信息是：帮助波斯尼亚，”社会民主党人丹尼斯·贝奇罗维奇在初步结果公布后表示。所谓“三方联盟”——一个多民族自由主义政治联盟——的政党遭遇了失败。此前，拥有颁布法律权力的外国高级代表修改了选举法，使得这些政党在该层级上台执政。
'The future of our region lies not in adopting the Russian model but the European one. The message to the EU: Help Bosnia,' said Denis Becirovic of the Social Democrats after the preliminary results were announced The parties of the so-called "Troika," a multi-ethnic liberal political alliance, suffered a defeat. They came to power at this level after the international high representative, a foreigner with the authority to impose laws, changed the election law.
选民们并未从这一实验中看到任何好处。作为最大的波斯尼亚克族民族主义政党，波斯尼亚克族民主行动党赢得了最多的席位，表现优异。
Voters saw no benefit from that experiment. The SDA, the largest Bosniak nationalist party, won the most seats and did well.
矛盾的是，民主行动党主席巴克尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇在总统竞选中失利。他是波斯尼亚第一任总统、代顿协议签署人之一伊泽特贝戈维奇的儿子。获胜者是社会民主党（SDP）的丹尼斯·贝西罗维奇，他保住了波斯尼亚人的席位。
The paradox is that SDA president Bakir Izetbegovic lost the race for the presidency. He is the son of Alija Izetbegovic, Bosnia's first president and one of the signatories of the Dayton agreement. The winner was Denis Becirovic of the Social Democrats (SDP), who kept the Bosniak seat.
因此，该党赢得了选举，但其领导人失败了。签署代顿协议的人的儿子现在被代顿创建的机构拒之门外。
So, the party won the election, but its leader lost. The son of the man who signed Dayton is now shut out of the institution Dayton created.
“我们地区的未来不在于采用俄罗斯模式，而在于采用欧洲模式。给帮助波斯尼亚的信息。让人民的意志成为这片土地的法律，”贝西罗维奇在宣布胜利时说道。
"The future of our region lies not in adopting the Russian model but the European one. The message to the Help Bosnia. Let the will of the people be the law of the land," Becirovic said as he declared victory.
克罗地亚人的惊喜克罗地亚人也存在同样的模式。波黑最强大的民族主义政党民主共同体的达里贾娜·菲利波维奇（Darijana Filipovic）为该党赢得了克罗地亚总统席位。菲利波维奇多年来一直担任波斯尼亚克族领导人乔维奇的助手。
A Croat surprise The same pattern holds among Croats. Darijana Filipovic of the HDZ BiH, their strongest nationalist party, won the Croat seat in the presidency for her party. Filipovic spent years as an aide to Covic, the Bosnian Croat leader. "HDZ BiH has shown it is brave enough to take a road others would not dare.
“波黑民主共同体已经表明，它有足够的勇气走其他人不敢走的道路。谁敢提名我？对一些太年轻的人来说，但对每个人来说都是一个惊喜，”菲利波维奇在投票后说道。
Who would have dared to nominate me? To some too young, but a surprise to everyone," Filipovic said after the vote.
波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那克罗地亚民主联盟（HDZ BiH）候选人达里贾娜·菲利波维奇（Darijana Filipovic）周日赢得了克罗地亚总统席位三个民族、三个民族主义政党、三场胜利，但没有一次关于如何让人们留在该国的对话。
Darijana Filipovic, a candidate of the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) won the Croat seat of the presidency on Sunday Three peoples, three nationalist parties, three victories, and not one conversation about how to keep people in the country.
这对国家意味着什么这些选举最重要的不是人数，而是总统的构成。其中将有两名女性：独立社会民主党的茨维贾诺维奇和波黑民主共同体的菲利波维奇。任何试图将其推销为女性从政突破的人都没有抓住重点。
What this means for the state The most important thing about these elections is not the numbers but the makeup of the presidency. Two women will sit in it: Cvijanovic of the SNSD and Filipovic of the HDZ BiH. Anyone who tries to sell that as a breakthrough for women in politics has missed the point.
两人都来自不同的政党，他们不希望国家处于目前的形式。两者还可以决定一名因藐视代顿国际监督而被定罪的男子的命运。
Both come from parties that, in different ways, do not want the state in its current form. Both could also decide the fate of a man convicted of defying the international oversight of Dayton.
波黑民主共同体长期以来一直要求建立第三个克罗地亚实体。SNSD希望塞族共和国自治。一方希望将国家分成三个，另一方希望将国家分成两个，但他们的目标都是让国家变得更小。
The HDZ BiH has long demanded a third, Croat entity. The SNSD wants autonomy for Republika Srpska. One side wants to split the state into three, the other into two, but they share the aim of making it smaller.
因此，本应象征着一个共同国家的总统职位再次是由那些感觉自己像客人的人组成的。
So, the presidency, which should symbolize a shared state, is again made up of people who feel like guests in it.
所有这一切都发生之际，西巴尔干地区再次成为俄罗斯、欧盟和多迪克之间竞争的舞台，普京和特朗普在该党获胜后公开感谢了普京和特朗普。
All of this is happening as the Western Balkans again becomes a stage for rivalry between Russia the EU and the Dodik openly thanked both Putin and Trump after his party's victory.
波斯尼亚已经进入了一个新技术和旧政治的新选举时代。年轻人正成群结队地离开这个国家。死者不再投票，但生者不再相信任何事情都可以有所不同。编辑：Aingeal Flanagan
Bosnia has entered a new electoral era with new technology and old politics. Young people are leaving the country in droves. The dead no longer vote, but the living have stopped believing that anything can be different. Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan