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印度在中亚的导弹交易为何对俄罗斯和中国至关重要Why India’s missile deals in Central Asia matter to Russia and China

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印度已向塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦出售“阿卡什”防空导弹系统,这为其在中亚地区建立了立足点,助力其成为全球主要武器出口国的目标。

India has sold its Akash air-defence missile system to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, giving it a foothold in Central Asia as it seeks to become a major global arms exporter.

印度国防部长拉杰什·库马尔·辛格于上周四证实了最新一笔销售,并暗示其他地区也对此感兴趣,他称“阿卡什”是“我们的成功典范之一”。

Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh confirmed the latest sales on Thursday last week, hinting at interest from elsewhere as he called the Akash “one of our success stories”.

“阿卡什”由印度国防研究与开发组织研发,是一款国产短程地对空导弹系统,能够同时打击多个目标,并内置电子干扰防护功能。

Developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation, the Akash is a home-grown, short-range surface-to-air missile system that can hit multiple targets at once and includes built-in protection against electronic jamming.

据印度国防部称,该系统可打击高度在100米至20公里(328英尺至12.5英里)之间的空中目标,作战范围为4.5公里至25公里。每枚导弹长5.87米(19英尺),重约710公斤(1565磅),采用指令制导锁定目标。

It can hit aerial targets between 100 metres and 20km (328 feet to 12½ miles) high, with an operational range of 4.5km to 25km, according to the Defence Ministry. Each 5.87-metre (19-foot) long missile weighs roughly 710kg (1,565lbs) and use command guidance to lock onto targets.

“阿卡什”项目还推出了更新型号,如“阿卡什-Prime”和“阿卡什-NG”,这些新型号配备了升级的传感器及其他改进措施。

The Akash programme has also been updated with newer variants, such as Akash Prime and Akash-NG, which feature upgraded sensors and other improvements.

此次向中亚出口正值印度更广泛地推动其防空系统出口之际,该地区传统上由俄罗斯主导武器供应,而中国的影响力正在不断上升。

Its export to Central Asia comes amid India’s wider push to sell its air defence systems to a region where Russia has traditionally been the dominant arms supplier and China has been gaining ground.

新德里观察家研究基金会战略研究项目研究员阿图尔·库马尔表示,亚美尼亚于2022年成为“阿卡什”系统的第一个国际客户,该系统相对低廉的成本、俄罗斯供应短缺以及竞争对手阿塞拜疆日益壮大的无人机机队,都是吸引亚美尼亚的因素。

Armenia became the first international customer for the Akash in 2022, attracted by the system’s relatively low cost as well as Russian supply shortages and rival Azerbaijan’s growing drone fleet, said Atul Kumar, a fellow at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation’s strategic studies programme.

库马尔指出,对塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦而言,采购该系统是使其国防供应来源多元化、摆脱对俄罗斯和中国依赖的一种方式。

For Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, Kumar said acquiring the system was a way for them to diversify their defence suppliers beyond Russia and China.

他表示:“土库曼斯坦已经采购了多套中国防空系统,预计‘阿卡什’将与其形成互补,在其防空体系中承担中层防御角色。”

“Turkmenistan has already acquired a number of Chinese air-defence systems and the Akash is expected to complement them by fulfilling the mid-layer role in its air-defence architecture,” he said.

库马尔表示,对于俄罗斯来说,印度进入中亚国防市场可能比该地区接近北约或中国军事标准更可取。

For Russia, Kumar said India entering the Central Asian defence market was likely preferable to the region moving close to Nato or Chinese military standards.

但他表示,印度军事装备在中国西翼的存在对北京来说将是一个不受欢迎的事态发展,尤其是因为它试图将自己确立为该地区首选的军事供应商。

But the presence of Indian military hardware along China’s western flank would be an unwelcome development for Beijing, he said – not least because it had sought to establish itself as the region’s preferred military supplier.

库马尔说:“印度正在通过各种政策举措、激励措施和国防走廊积极促进国防出口并扩大私营部门的参与。”

“India is actively promoting defence exports and expanding private-sector participation through various policy initiatives, incentives and defence corridors,” Kumar said.

第三种选择是,自入侵乌克兰以来,俄罗斯的武器出口有所减少,但斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据显示,克里姆林宫仍然是中亚的主要武器供应商。

A third option Russia’s weapons exports have decreased since it invaded Ukraine, but data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows the Kremlin is still Central Asia’s main arms supplier.

然而,据报道,中国正在迎头赶上,尤其是在乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦。

China has reportedly been catching up, however, especially in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

该研究所的数据显示,2020年至2024年间,哈萨克斯坦购买了俄罗斯主要武器出口的11%,而塔吉克斯坦仍然严重依赖俄罗斯的装备和军事援助。

Kazakhstan bought 11 per cent of Russia’s major arms exports between 2020 and 2024, while Tajikistan still heavily relies on Russian equipment and military assistance, the institute’s data shows.

与此同时,亚美尼亚一直在削减俄罗斯武器,并转向印度和法国等新供应商。

Armenia, meanwhile, has been cutting back on Russian weapons and turning to new suppliers such as India and France.

印度马诺哈尔·帕里卡国防研究与分析研究所的研究分析师拉胡尔·万克赫德(Rahul Wankhede)表示,阿卡什导弹提供高端防空能力,其成本仅为西方替代品的一小部分。

The Akash offered high-end air defence capabilities at a fraction of the cost of Western alternatives, said Rahul Wankhede, a research analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in India.

万克赫德说:“该系统得到了国内生产线的支持……以及印度武装部队的额外订单。”“因此,这确保了潜在买家的供应链可靠性、快速补充和全面的培训计划。”

“The system is supported by domestic manufacturing lines … and additional orders placed by India’s own armed forces,” Wankhede said. “So this assures potential buyers of supply chain reliability, quick replenishment and a comprehensive training package.”

万赫德说,除了自己的武器外,印度还可以向塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦等中亚国家提供对俄罗斯起源系统的支持。“所以这对双方来说都是双重优势。”他说,与中国、俄罗斯或美国不同,印度并不希望通过武器销售来建立依赖,这使得印度成为寻求平衡战略关系的国家的一个有吸引力的合作伙伴。

In addition to its own arms, India could provide Central Asian nations like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan with support for Russian-origin systems, Wankhede said. “So it’s a dual advantage for both sides.”Unlike China, Russia or the United States, India was not looking to create dependencies through weapons sales, he said, making it an attractive partner for nations looking to balance their strategic relationships.

万克赫德说:“阿卡什系统未来将拥有更广泛的出口基础,因为它是一个纯粹的防御系统。”“这标志着印度在全球舞台上成为一个可靠的国防出口国。”“久经考验”德里观察家研究基金会智库研究员阿列克谢·扎哈罗夫表示,俄罗斯目前专注于保存地对空导弹供应供其自用,这为印度创造了机会。

“The Akash system will have a wider export base in the future since it’s a purely defensive system,” Wankhede said. “This marks India’s emergence as a credible defence exporter on the global stage.”‘Battle-hardened’

扎哈罗夫说:“在采购阿卡什-1 S系统后,塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦(与亚美尼亚类似)可能会考虑进口其他印度军事装备,包括雷达系统、火炮和导弹。”

Russia’s current preoccupation with preserving surface-to-air missile supplies for its own use had created an opening for India, said Aleksei Zakharov, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in Delhi.

国际战略研究所南亚和中亚防务高级研究员安托万·莱维斯克(Antoine Levesques)表示,阿卡什导弹的部分吸引力在于它是“一个战斗坚固的系统”,并列举了它在去年与巴基斯坦的短暂空战中的使用。

“After procuring the Akash-1S systems, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, similar to Armenia, are likely to consider importing other Indian military equipment, including radar systems, artillery and missiles,” Zakharov said.

““阿卡什”导弹的海外销售进一步证明,印度的国防产品出口正在加速,”他说。“这些销售的反馈将使印度能够微调其准备推向出口市场的其他国防产品。”阿卡什导弹的海外销售进一步证明,印度的国防产品出口正在加速——安托万·勒韦克,国防分析师印度与中亚国家的友好关系意味着它可以将自己定位为可靠伙伴,曼诺哈尔·帕里卡尔国防研究与分析研究所高级研究员拉吉夫·库马尔·纳朗表示。

Part of the appeal of the Akash was that it was “a battle-hardened system”, said Antoine Levesques, senior fellow for South and Central Asian defence at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, citing its use in last year’s brief air war with Pakistan. “Foreign sales of Akash provide added evidence that India’s exports of defence articles are picking up pace,” he said. “Feedback from those sales will allow India to fine-tune other defence products it is preparing for export markets.”

他说,印度希望增加国防出口,但要实现这一目标需要时间,因为新德里正在努力改进其产品。

Foreign sales of Akash provide added evidence that India’s exports of defence articles are picking up paceAntoine Levesques, defence analyst India’s friendly relations with Central Asia meant it could position itself as a reliable partner, said Rajiv Kumar Narang, a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis.

这个南亚国家目前在全球武器出口中排名第31位,上一财年出口武器估计达40亿美元。

India wanted to increase its defence exports but it would take time to achieve this, he said, as Delhi worked to improve its offerings.

智库“政策研究学会”主任、前印度海军军官C·乌代·巴斯卡表示,作为“适度出口国”的印度不太可能试图直接与俄罗斯竞争。

The South Asian nation currently ranks 31st for global arms exports, shipping an estimated US$4 billion of weapons last financial year.

考虑到两国在“布拉莫斯”导弹系统上的合作,新德里“将审慎行事”,巴斯卡补充道,与“中国竞争则是另一码事”。文/朱奈德·卡丘

C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the Society for Policy Studies think tank and a former Indian naval officer, said that “modest exporter” India was unlikely to try to directly compete with Russia. Given the two countries’ work on the Brahmos missile system, Delhi “would proceed in a prudent manner”, Bhaskar said, adding that competition with “China is a different story”.