乔纳森·费罗、丽莎·阿布拉莫维奇和安玛丽·霍登BMO全球资产管理公司的厄尔·戴维斯表示，在债券市场波动形成推动利率上行的循环之际，30年期美国国债收益率突破6%“不可避免”，而且很可能就在10月内发生。
Global Asset Management’s Earl Davis said he sees the 30-year US Treasury yield crossing 6% as “inevitable” — and likely within October — as bond-market volatility creates a cycle driving rates higher.
“是什么让它成为必然？市场一次只能专注于一件事，无论是通胀、增长，还是影响利率的因素，”戴维斯周一日在彭博电视台表示。他补充称，现在投资者“实际上正关注利率”。
“What makes it inevitable? The market only has the ability to focus on one thing at a time, whether that be inflation or growth or things that impact interest rates,” Davis said Monday on Bloomberg Television’s And now, he added, investors are “actually focused on the interest rate.”
戴维斯是蒙特利尔银行旗下资产管理公司的固定收益和货币市场主管。他表示，美国国债收益率已处于多年高位，而市场波动将加速30年期国债收益率跌向6%。他说：“这使我们非常有把握认为收益率会达到6%——不仅如此，我认为本月10月内触及这一水平的概率也很高。”戴维斯的评论凸显了收益率曲线各期限收益率的历史性飙升，其中长期国债收益率自8月底以来上涨了近50个基点。30年期美国国债收益率周一上午突破5.65%，逼近2002年以来最高水平，即10月1日触及的5.69%。
This means that with Treasury yields already at multiyear highs, the volatility will accelerate the selloff toward 6% on the 30-year bond, said Davis, the fixed income and money markets head at Bank of Montreal’s asset manager. “That gives us a very high conviction in seeing 6% — not only that, I believe there’s a high probability we see it this month in October.”Davis’ comments highlighted the historic surge in yields across the curve, with the long bond up almost 50 basis points since the end of August. Yields on 30-year Treasuries topped 5.65% on Monday morning, testing the highest-since-2002 level of 5.69% reached on Oct. 1.
戴维斯表示，这轮收益率飙升是全球现象的一部分，并非纯粹由美国因素推动。他指出，可能扭转美国国债收益率飙升趋势的两个触发因素分别是：民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院选举，形成一个分裂且陷入僵局的政府，使市场重新关注增长而非通胀；或者在30年期美国国债收益率突破6%后，财政部直接干预债券市场。“我们正处于熊市趋势之中，但尚未进入熊市，”他说。
The rout is part of a global phenomenon rather than a purely US dynamic, Davis said. He identified two potential triggers that could reverse the Treasury selloff: a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate, producing a divided, gridlocked government that refocuses markets on growth over inflation, or direct Treasury intervention in the bond market once the 30-year breaches 6%. “We’re in a bear trend, not a bear market,” he said.
关于干预措施的具体方式，戴维斯明确表示：“主要是通过购买债券来实施干预。这是美联储（Fed）与财政部（Treasury）共同合作进行的操作。毫无疑问，这属于量化宽松（QE）政策的一部分。”戴维斯指出，债券市场对周五发布的美国就业数据报告的反应进一步坚定了他对于利率上升趋势的判断。尽管就业增长速度低于预期，从而可能降低了美联储再次加息的紧迫性，但债券价格依然出现了下跌，这进一步证实了他的观点：市场交易者目前最关注的是利率本身。
On the mechanics of intervention, Davis was explicit: “It’s buying up bonds. It’s the Fed and Treasury working together to buy bonds. I think it is QE without a doubt.”Davis said the bond market’s reaction to Friday’s US payrolls report strengthened his conviction about the upward path for interest rates. While job growth was weaker than expected, potentially easing the urgency for another Federal Reserve rate hike, bonds still sold off again, reinforcing his view about traders’ focus on rates themselves.
他警告称，如果30年期国债的收益率超过6%，美国可能会陷入债务陷阱——即政府的借贷成本超过经济增长速度，从而形成一个债务支出不断上升的恶性循环。
He warned that a 30-year yield exceeding 6% risks pushing the US into a debt trap, where government borrowing costs exceed nominal growth, creating a vicious circle of rising debt expense.