美国服务业活动9月放缓，强劲的国内需求使供应链承压，并推高企业支付的投入品价格，表明通胀可能高位持续至明年。
US services sector activity slowed in September, with strong domestic demand stretching supply chains and raising prices paid by businesses for inputs, indicating that inflation could remain high into next year.
美国供应管理学会周一表示，其非制造业采购经理指数（PMI）上月从8月的55.4降至54.9。高于50意味着服务业正在增长，而该行业占美国经济活动的三分之二以上。路透社调查的经济学家此前预计，PMI将基本持平于55.2。
The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its nonmanufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 54.9 last month from 55.4 in August. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI little changed at 55.2.
该PMI仍与第三季度经济强劲增长相符。经济受到旺盛国内需求的推动，其中主要包括消费者支出以及企业对人工智能和相关基础设施的投资。
The PMI remained consistent with strong economic growth in the third quarter. The economy is being driven by robust domestic demand, mostly consumer spending and businesses investing in AI and related infrastructure.
调查显示，服务业企业收到的新订单指标上月从8月飙升至60.9后回落至59.8；60.9是2023年2月以来的最高读数。供应链难以应对强劲需求，而美国与以色列对伊朗的战争进一步加剧了这一状况。
The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses eased to 59.8 last month after surging to 60.9 in August, which was the highest reading since February 2023. Supply chains are struggling to cope with the strong demand, a situation that has been worsened by the US-Israel war with Iran.
中东冲突推高了能源价格，并导致经霍尔木兹海峡运输的大宗商品出现短缺。经济学家警告称，柴油价格已创历史新高，并可能开始对交通运输业和农业以外的其他行业造成压力。
The Middle East conflict has raised energy prices and caused shortages of commodities that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel prices are at record highs and could start to exert pressure beyond the transportation and agricultural sectors, economists warned.
调查显示，供应商交付指标从8月的51.3升至53.2。高于50意味着交付速度放缓。该指标已连续22个月显示交付放缓，从而推高了投入品价格。供应商交付表现最初受到进口关税的影响。
The survey's measure of supplier deliveries increased to 53.2 from 51.3 in August. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. That measure has slowed for 22 consecutive months, boosting input prices. Supplier delivery performance was initially impacted by tariffs on imports.
调查显示，企业支付的投入品价格指标从8月的72.6跃升至74.0，与美国供应管理学会制造业调查中的类似升幅相呼应。两项调查综合表明，未来通胀将上升，并支持经济学家关于美联储将在12月加息的预期。
The survey's measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs jumped to 74.0 from 72.6 in August. It mirrored a similar increase in the ISM's manufacturing survey. Combined, the two surveys pointed to higher inflation down the road and supported economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December.
美联储上个月将其基准利率上调了25个基点，目前基准利率处于3.75%至4.00%的区间，这是三年来的首次加息。由于8月和7月的通胀数据低于预期，以及9月份非农就业增长大幅放缓，本月再次加息的可能性有所降低。
The Fed last month raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, the first hike in three years, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs ahead. The chances of a rate hike this month were diminished by cooler-than-expected inflation readings for August and July as well as a sharp slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth in September.
根据ISM（工业与服务业调查）的数据，服务业就业人数有所增加。再加上ISM上周发布的制造业就业数据也显示出增长趋势，这些数据支持了经济学家的观点：尽管9月份的就业增长表现不佳，但劳动力市场依然保持稳定。该调查显示，服务业就业人数从8月的47.8上升至50.1。
The ISM survey showed a rise in services sector employment. That, together with an increase in manufacturing employment reported by the ISM last week, supported economists' assessment that the labor market remained stable despite September's underwhelming payroll gains. The survey's measure of services employment climbed to 50.1 from 47.8 in August.