众议院多数党鞭汤姆·埃默（明尼苏达州共和党人）随着共和党保持多数席位的前景看起来越来越黯淡，共和党正在降低预期，并将注意力集中在缩小的战场上。
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) is scaling back expectations and zeroing in on a narrowed battlefield as Republicans' prospects of keeping their majority look increasingly bleak.
为什么重要：埃默是前全国共和党国会委员会主席，曾帮助共和党在2020年意外获得席位，他认为，他的政党仍然可以在11月克服历史阻力。
Why it matters: Emmer, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chair who helped the GOP unexpectedly gain seats in 2020, argues his party can still defy historical headwinds in November.
但距离比赛还剩不到一个月的时间，埃默承认，一些艰难的决定正在决定共和党人的钱花在哪里，包括退出他们认为无法挽救的竞选。
But with less than a month to go, Emmer acknowledges that some tough decisions are coming about where Republicans spend their money, including walking away from races they don't think they can salvage.
“这确实是一门生意，你正在看资产负债表，你把钱投入到能获得最大回报的地方，”他在竞选期间的飞机上告诉Axios。
"It really is a business, and you're looking at a balance sheet, and you're putting your money where you're gonna get your biggest return," he told Axios aboard a plane between campaign stops.
Axios加入了埃默的行列，埃默计划在9月至选举日期间访问56个选区，上周他从夏洛特前往里士满，与众议员马克·哈里斯（Mark Harris）一起停留和罗布·惠特曼（弗吉尼亚州共和党人）。
Axios joined Emmer, who plans to visit 56 districts between September and Election Day, as he traveled from Charlotte to Richmond last week for stops with Reps. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.).
推动新闻：埃默说，这是共和党人在2022年经历了惨痛的教训，当时对“红色浪潮”的预期导致该党将资源分散得过于广泛。
Driving the news: It's a lesson Emmer says Republicans learned the hard way in 2022, when expectations of a "red wave" led the party to spread its resources too broadly.
埃默在夏洛特告诉捐助者：“我们扩大了地图，但我们本应该缩小地图。”“我们应该对我们所追求的目标持保守态度。"
"We expanded the map when we should have kept it narrow," Emmer told donors in Charlotte. "We should have been conservative about what we were going after."
埃默表示，在这个周期中，共和党人必须确定“哪些地方你无法挽救这一点，你必须在那里找到一些东西。”“是的，但是：共和党人面临着艰难的国家环境，这一战略正在考验，总统和选民关注的焦点是生活成本和伊朗战争，伊朗战争正在推高天然气价格。
This cycle, Emmer said Republicans have to identify "where you're not gonna be able to salvage this, and you've got to pick up something over there." Yes, but: That strategy is being tested by a difficult national environment for Republicans, with an unpopular president and voters focused on the cost of living and the war in Iran, which is driving up gas prices.
字里行间：当被问及陷入困境的众议员马克斯·米勒（Max Miller）（俄亥俄州共和党人）日益艰难的竞选时，埃默立即指出了参议院和州长竞选的可能性，民主党在这些竞选中的表现好于预期。
Between the lines: Asked about embattled Rep. Max Miller's (R-Ohio) increasingly difficult race, Emmer immediately pointed up the ticket to the Senate and gubernatorial races, where Democrats are faring better than expected.
他说：“问题是，当这些全州候选人没有创造动力时，那就很困难了。”
"The problem is, when you got these statewide candidates that are not creating momentum, that's tough," he said.
埃默还指出，民主党人罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）在民意调查中领先的北卡罗来纳州参议院竞选对那里的第1和第11选区竞选产生了“巨大影响”。
Emmer also pointed to the North Carolina Senate race, where Democrat Roy Cooper has opened up a lead in polls, as having a "large impact" on the 1st and 11th district races there.
埃默说，米勒有一条通往胜利的道路，“但它很窄。“尽管如此，他还是为NRCC花钱支持米勒的决定进行了辩护。
Miller has a path to victory, Emmer said, "but it's narrow." Still, he defended the NRCC's decision to spend money backing Miller.
放大：埃默的本能是让成员运行的比赛，适合他们的地区-在一定范围内。
Zoom in: Emmer's instinct is to let members run the race that fits their district — within limits.
他打电话给众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉查（R-Fla）。在移民问题上与特朗普决裂的竞选广告是一个“巨大的错误”，并补充说，“我不知道为什么现在是发布这一信息的时候”（尽管他后来收回了这些评论，称萨拉查“了解她的地区”）。
He called Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar's (R-Fla.) campaign ad breaking with Trump on immigration a "huge mistake, adding, "I'm not sure why now was the time for that message" (although he later walked back those comments, saying Salazar "knows her district").
萨拉查在广告中指出，特朗普的移民执法工作“走得太远”，帮助他在2024年当选的西班牙裔选民“感到被背叛”。"
Salazar posited in the ad that Trump's immigration enforcement efforts have "gone too far" and that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 "feel betrayed."