众议院共和党领导人现在公开承认，他们十年中期重新划分选区的努力并没有像他们希望的那样取得成功。
House GOP leaders are now openly acknowledging that their mid-decade redistricting push didn't work out as well as they'd hoped.
为什么重要：共和党人发起了重新划分选区的战争，希望新的地图能够为他们提供更大的缓冲，以应对总统所在政党面临的历史阻力。·这个优势看起来比他们想象的要小得多。
Why it matters: Republicans kicked off the redistricting wars hoping new maps would give them a bigger cushion against the historical headwinds facing the president's party. • That advantage is looking a lot smaller than they envisioned.
推动新闻：众议院多数党鞭汤姆·埃默（明尼苏达州共和党人）告诉Axios，共和党不会赢得他们希望从新地图中获得的所有13个席位。
Driving the news: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios that Republicans won't win all 13 seats they'd hoped to gain from new maps.
- “我们不会赢得所有13个重新划分的选区席位。这是正确的。我们不是，”埃默周四在北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州竞选站之间的飞机上告诉Axios。
• "We're not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats. That's correct. We're not," Emmer told Axios aboard a plane Thursday between campaign stops in North Carolina and Virginia.
- 埃默附和众议院共和党会议主席丽莎·麦克莱恩（密歇根州共和党人）的说法，他上个月告诉Axios，共和党不太可能横扫所有13个国家。
• Emmer echoed House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), who told Axios last month that Republicans were unlikely to sweep all 13. Zoom in:
放大：埃默表示，如果共和党横扫德克萨斯州所有五个新选出的席位，他会感到“惊讶”，如果他们赢得佛罗里达州所有四个席位，他会感到“震惊”。但他表示，共和党肯定会在阿拉巴马州、路易斯安那州和田纳西州获得新选出的席位。
Emmer said he'd be "surprised" if Republicans sweep all five newly drawn seats in Texas and "shocked" if they win all four in Florida • But he said Republicans are certain to pick up newly drawn seats in Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee.
- 在众议员马克·哈里斯（R-NC）的筹款活动上周四，埃默告诉捐助者，共和党还可以通过缅因州以及北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、新墨西哥州和华盛顿州的接招来抵消损失。
• At a fundraiser for Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) on Thursday, Emmer told donors that Republicans could also offset losses with pickups in Maine and potentially North Carolina, Ohio, New Mexico and Washington.
- 埃默告诉捐助者，即使假设共和党因加利福尼亚州和犹他州的选区重新划分而失去五个席位，其他地方的回升也为该党提供了一条脱颖而出的道路。
• Even assuming Republicans lose five seats because of redistricting in California and Utah, pickups elsewhere give the party a path to come out ahead, Emmer told donors.
游戏状态：重新划分选区仍然给共和党带来了优势，只是比他们曾经想象的要小。
State of play: Redistricting still gave Republicans an edge, just smaller than they once thought.
- 库克政治报告现在预计，仅重新划分选区，共和党就将获得约四个席位，低于共和党曾经希望从新地图中获得的两位数席位。
• The Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will net around four seats from redistricting alone, down from the double-digit gains Republicans once hoped to squeeze from new maps.
- 民主党在加利福尼亚州和犹他州的地图--为回应新的德克萨斯州地图--抵消了共和党的收益。一些新获得的共和党提拔机会变得比预期更具竞争力。
• Democrats' maps in California and Utah — in response to a new Texas map — offset the GOP gains. Some newly drawn Republican pickup opportunities have become more competitive than expected.
底线：民主党只需要获得三个席位就能赢得众议院，而更广泛的战场正在向他们的方向移动。
The bottom line: Democrats need to net just three seats to win the House, and the broader battlefield is moving in their direction.
- 库克上个月将15场众议院竞选转向民主党，而萨巴托的水晶球几天后将11场竞选转向民主党。
• Cook shifted 15 House races toward Democrats last month, while Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 races toward Democrats days later.
- 许多竞争最激烈的竞选现在都发生在特朗普总统2024年领导的选区。
• Many of the most competitive races are now in districts President Trump carried in 2024.