众议院共和党人正悄悄降低预期，不再指望通过全国范围的重划选区能获得原本寻求的10个席位增幅，原因是政治气候恶化，且民调显示共和党在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州的拉美裔选民支持率大幅下滑。
House Republicans are quietly scaling back hopes for the 10-seat boost they sought from redistricting nationwide, amid a souring political climate and polls showing a collapse in GOP support among Latino voters in Texas Florida
为何重要：在心情低落的日子里，共和党人私下担心，2026年的这场重划选区大战在全国范围内可能仅能为他们净增一个席位，这是据多位共和党资深策略师透露。
Why it matters: On their down days, Republicans privately worry that the great redistricting war of 2026 will net them only one seat nationwide, according to top GOP strategists.
大局观：在本周期伊始，共和党将重划选区视作暴风雨中的一把伞：在小雨中能保住他们的众议院多数派地位不受淋湿——但在政治飓风面前，这把伞就不够用了。
Zoom out: At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans viewed redistricting like an umbrella in a storm: It could keep their House majority dry in a light drizzle — but in a political hurricane, it wouldn't be enough.
- 即使对代价感到肉痛，他们也未重新审视重划选区策略。据AdImpact统计，共和党已在15个本应轻松拿下的重划选区投入1.33亿美元电视广告费。
• They're not second-guessing the redistricting strategy, even as they wince at the price tag.
- 然而，他们不再像一年前那样严肃地谈论重划选区能拯救他们的众议院多数派地位——那是在伊朗战争助推通胀、拖累特朗普总统支持率下跌之前。
According to AdImpact, Republicans have spent $133 million on TV ads trying to win in 15 redrawn districts that were supposed to be easy pickings.
数字解读：初夏时，共和党认为他们已创造出16个更有利于共和党的席位：俄亥俄州5个、4个、2个，以及阿拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密苏里州、北卡罗来纳州、田纳西州各1个。• 但此后，法院推翻了密苏里州的选区地图，政治环境也随之恶化，最新《华盛顿邮报》-ABC民调显示民主党领先8个百分点。
共和党支持率遭侵蚀尤其是在拉美裔选民中，这引发共和党担心会失去其绘图者原本指望拿下的席位——毕竟特朗普在2024年几乎直接赢得了拉美裔选票。
• Still, they no longer talk seriously about redistricting saving their House majority, as they did a year ago — before the Iran war helped boost inflation and sink President Trump's approval ratings. By the numbers: Early this summer, Republicans believed they had created 16 more GOP-friendly seats: five in four in two in Ohio and one each in Alabama Louisiana Missouri North Carolina Tennessee • But since then, courts tossed a Missouri map and the political environment has darkened, with Democrats holding an 8-percentage-point lead in new Washington Post-ABC polling. GOP support has eroded
- “德克萨斯州，如果我们能拿下全部5个席位，我会感到惊讶，”众议员汤姆·埃默（共和党-明尼苏达州）本月告诉Axios。“佛罗里达州，如果我们能拿下全部4个席位，我会感到震惊。”
particularly among Latino voters raising Republican fears of losing seats their mapmakers counted on after Trump nearly won the Hispanic vote outright in 2024. • "Texas, I'd be surprised if we got all five," Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios this month.
对方观点：接下来，我们来看看加利福尼亚州的局势。州长加文·纽森急于向自己的政党表明他愿意采取强硬措施，因此重新划分了选区，结果使得民主党在该州获得了4个更加稳固的选区，以及1个竞争较为激烈的选区。
"Florida, I'd be shocked if we got all four." The other side: Then factor in California where Gov. Gavin Newsom, eager to show his party he was willing to fight back, engineered a new map with four more solidly Democratic seats — and one slightly more competitive seat.
民主党人坚信自己能够赢得所有5个选区；他们的主要超级政治行动委员会（super PAC）已经停止了在其中一个选区的竞选活动。
• Democrats are supremely confident they can win all five — and their main super PAC has already stopped super PAC spending in one.
因此，在11月3日大选前的两周时间里，共和党人正在仔细研究新的选区划分结果，预计自己能够在重新划分的15个选区中赢得7到12个席位。
So, two weeks before the Nov. 3 election, Republicans are squinting at the map and expecting to win 7 to 12 of the 15 remaining seats they redistricted.
具体分析如下：共和党的策略师们私下认为，他们仍有可能在得克萨斯州重新划分的5个选区中赢得2到4个席位，并在佛罗里达州新增的4个选区中赢得2个（甚至3个）席位。
The breakdown: GOP strategists privately think Republicans can still win 2 to 4 of the 5 seats that were redrawn in Texas, and 2 (maybe 3) of the 4 new seats in Florida.
然而，在俄亥俄州重新划分的选区中，共和党人可能一个席位也赢不到；北卡罗来纳州的新选区情况则非常不确定（胜负难料）。
• They could go 0 for 2 in the redrawn seats in Ohio. The revamped seat in North Carolina is a jump ball.
共和党人寄希望于能在田纳西州、阿拉巴马州和路易斯安那州赢得所有3个新选区。
• They're banking on winning all three new seats in Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana.
在最悲观的情况下，他们预计通过这次中期选举的选区重新划分，共和党最多只能在美国的共和党控制州中赢得7个新席位。
• Under their most pessimistic calculations, Republicans worry their mid-cycle redistricting wave could yield just 7 new seats in red states.
不过，纽森的反击措施也不能忽视：在加利福尼亚州，纽森的举措使民主党处于有利地位，有可能赢得5个选区；而在犹他州，一名法官强制该州重新划分选区，结果导致原本对共和党有利的选区被撤销，取而代之的是一个倾向于民主党的选区。
But then factor in Newsom's countermove in California, which put Democrats in a strong position to flip 5 seats. • And in Utah, a judge forced the state to redraw its districts, obliterating a GOP-friendly seat — and creating a Democratic-leaning one in the Salt Lake City area.
因此，目前来看，经过这次选区重新划分后，共和党的最坏结果是赢得7个席位，而民主党赢得6个席位。
• So as it stands now, a worst-case scenario for the GOP's final score after all that redistricting: Republicans gain 7 seats and Democrats gain 6.
全国范围内的选区重新划分结果：尽管经历了全年的选区重新划分，共和党最终只赢得了1个席位。
• A year of nationwide redistricting to net one Republican seat. The details:
详细情况如下：共和党人对在南部各州赢得3个席位充满信心；由于最高法院关于《投票权法案》的裁决，这些州的共和党立法机构得以重新划分选区。
Republicans are confident about three pickups in Southern states, where the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act decision allowed GOP legislatures to redraw maps.
作为中期选举策略的一部分，共和党已经在俄亥俄州放弃了1个重新划分后的选区。
• They have already conceded one redrawn seat in Ohio as part of their midterm triage. Then there's Texas.
至于得克萨斯州，共和党人只对自己重新划分的5个选区中的2个（休斯顿地区的第9选区和达拉斯地区的第32选区）充满信心。
Republicans are truly confident about just two of the five seats they redrew: The 9th District in the Houston area and the 32nd District in the Dallas area.
- 美国共和党众议院主要超级政治行动委员会已撤出得克萨斯州南部第28选区，基本上放弃了该席位，该席位由众议员亨利·库亚尔（民主党人）持有。该选区原本是特朗普在2024年以7.3个百分点获胜的选区，重新划分后变成了他本将以10.4个百分点获胜的选区。
• The main Republican House super PAC has pulled out of Texas' 28th District in South Texas, essentially conceding the seat held by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D). It was rejiggered from a district that Trump won by 7.3 points in 2024 to one he would have won by 10.4 points.
- 得克萨斯州第34选区接壤里奥格兰德河谷，同样重新划分以纳入更多共和党选民，各方在电视广告上的支出约为1800万美元。最新的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调显示，民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯在共和党人埃里克·弗洛雷斯面前略占优势。
• In Texas' 34th District, which touches the Rio Grande Valley and was similarly redrawn to include more Republicans, parties are spending roughly $18 million on TV ads. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez had a small lead over Republican Eric Flores in the latest NYT/Sienna poll.
- 根据AdImpact的数据，在得克萨斯州中部第35选区，两党支出接近600万美元。该选区原本是哈里斯以33.7个百分点获胜的选区，重新划分后变成了特朗普本将以10.4个百分点获胜的选区。选情难以预料。
• And in Texas' 35th District in Central Texas, which went from one that Kamala Harris won by 33.7 points to one that Trump would have won by 10.4 points, both parties have spent close to $6 million, according to AdImpact. It's too close to call.
结论：在真正的“蓝色浪潮”中，共和党可能会失去特朗普以两位数优势赢得的席位。但在这种情况下，共和党不太可能将失败归咎于重新划分选区。
The bottom line: In a true blue wave, Republicans could lose seats Trump won by double digits. But in that scenario, Republicans would be unlikely to blame their losses on redistricting.
- 他们会把责任推给特朗普。
• They'd point the finger at Trump.