距离中期选举不足一个月，众议院共和党的前景正日益严峻。特朗普总统的支持率低迷且持续下滑。共和党的紧急重划选区行动未能达到预期目标。动荡的经济局势让选民忧心忡忡、渴望变革。这些因素叠加，为众议长迈克·约翰逊（共和党，路易斯安那州）及其他共和党领袖制造了重重雷区，他们正在越来越渺茫的希望中拼命争取，以在下届国会中保住对众议院微弱的控制权。
Less than a month out from the midterm elections, the landscape for House Republicans grows grimmer by the day. President Trump’s approval ratings are low and sinking. The GOP’s emergency redistricting campaign has fallen short of its goals. And the volatile economy has voters on edge and thirsty for change. The combination has created a minefield of trouble for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other GOP leaders, who are scrambling against increasingly long odds to keep their slim hold on the lower chamber in the next Congress.
近年来国家顶尖选举分析师纷纷调整数十个众议院席位的预测——几乎全部向民主党倾斜——这充分显示了他们面临的逆风之强劲。这些变化表明，共和党不仅在紫色摇摆选区——传统上决定多数党归属的主战场——举步维艰，甚至在两年前特朗普轻松获胜的深红地区也陷入困境。部分情况在预料之中。历史上，中期选举向来对掌控白宫的政党不利。
The strength of the headwinds they face has become evident in recent weeks as the nation’s top election analysts have shifted their projections for dozens of House seats — almost all of them in the Democrats’ favor. Those changes signal that Republicans are struggling not only in purple battleground districts — the traditional combat zones where majorities are usually won and lost — but also in much redder regions of the country where Trump won easily just two years ago. Part of that is expected. Midterm elections are historically tough for the party that controls the White House.
但专家表示，本周期共和党的挑战因消费品高昂价格而加剧——这可直接关联到特朗普的政策，包括关税和伊朗战争——以及对总统支持度的侵蚀，其支持率已跌至历史低位。“鉴于目前的整体数据，共和党若能守住众议院将是一个震惊，”位于弗吉尼亚大学的独立选举预测机构“萨巴托水晶球”主编凯尔·康迪克周五在电子邮件中表示。
But experts say the challenges for Republicans have been compounded this cycle by the high cost of consumer goods — which can be linked directly to Trump’s policies, including tariffs and the Iran War — and the erosion of support for the president, whose approval rating is at historic lows. “Republicans holding on to the House would be a shock given where the overall numbers are,” Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an independent election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, said Friday in an email.
周五，共和党迎来最新一波坏消息：另一家非党派选举分析机构“库克政治报告”的预测员将18个众议院选情调整为更有利于民主党。
The latest wave of bad news for Republicans came on Friday, when forecasters at the Cook Political Report, another non-partisan election analyst group, moved 18 House races towards the Democrats.
该报告的亮点包括：该报告的撰写人、库克分析师Erin Covey表示，当前环境下，“最可能的结果”是民主党人——他们只需翻转三个席位即可赢得多数——将赢得九到十九个席位。“目前，民主党人只需赢得20%的摇摆州席位即可获得多数，假设我们评级中对民主党有利的席位都朝着有利方向发展，”Covey写道。萨巴托的分析师也报告了类似趋势，自九月中旬以来，他们已将超过20个席位倾向于民主党。
The highlights of that report include: Erin Covey, the Cook analyst behind the report, said the environment is such that “the most likely outcome” is that Democrats — who need to flip just three seats to win the majority — will pick up between nine and 19. “At this point, Democrats only need to win 20% of the Toss Ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way,” Covey wrote. The analysts at Sabato have reported a similar trend, moving more than 20 seats towards Democrats since the middle of September.
管理编辑Kondik表示，共和党的许多困难归因于生活成本高昂。“高物价可能摧毁一个政治联盟——这曾发生在民主党身上，如今也正在发生在共和党身上，”他说。共和党正在反驳分析师的预测。他们指出三个因素，使他们有信心击退蓝色浪潮，并在明年保持对众议院的控制。首先，他们指出，受MAGA Inc.（特朗普的超级政治行动委员会）晚期支出激增的推动，共和党在竞赛最后阶段拥有明显的资金优势。
Kondik, the managing editor, said much of the Republicans’ troubles can be attributed to the high cost of living. “High prices can destroy a political coalition — it happened to the Democrats and now it's happening to the Republicans,” he said. Republicans are pushing back against the analysts’ predictions. They’re pointing to three factors that leave them confident they can repel a blue wave and keep control of the House next year. First, they note that Republicans, boosted by a late spending spree from MAGA Inc., Trump’s super-PAC, have a clear cash advantage heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
其次，民主党希望翻转的大多数席位并不位于紫色、50-50的选区，而是更保守的地区，特朗普在那里以巨大优势获胜。第三，民主党的批准率也远低于水平。“选民可能不喜欢共和党人，可能不喜欢特朗普，但他们也不喜欢民主党人。而你必须向他们呈现一个可行的替代方案，尤其是当你在这些深红色地区竞争时，那里的选民是共和党支持者，”一名全国性的共和党操作手周五通过电话说道。
Second, most of the seats Democrats are hoping to flip are not in purple, 50-50 districts, but more conservative regions where Trump won by large margins. And third, the approval rating of Democrats is also well underwater. “Voters might not like Republicans, they might not like Trump, but they don't like Democrats. And you have to present them with a viable alternative, especially when you're playing in this deep-red territory where they are Republican voters,” a national GOP operative said Friday by phone.
“如果我们动员了我们的基本盘，他们可能会捏着鼻子投票支持我们的候选人，但他们肯定不会投民主党的票，”该操作手继续说道。
“If we turn out our base, they might hold their nose and vote for our guy, but they sure as hell are not going to vote for a Democrat,” the operative continued.
他们正进入特朗普以15分、20分优势赢得的选区——那是一场艰巨的逆风之战。但毫无疑问，选民们正感到不安，最近的民调显示，他们准备向掌握全部权力的政党发泄不满。皮尤研究中心周五发布的一项新调查显示，68%的受访者——以及特朗普2024年选民中的31%——对他的表现持不满意见。即使是约翰逊，他一贯主张共和党将在明年保持众议院多数，最近也承认他可能失去议长职位的可能性。
“And they're going into these districts that Trump won by 15, 20 points — that's a huge uphill climb.”Still, there’s no question that voters are restless, and recent polls suggest they’re ready to take it out on the party that controls all the power. A new survey, released Friday by the Pew Research Center, found that 68 percent of respondents — and 31 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters — disapprove of his performance. Even Johnson, who has maintained throughout the cycle that Republicans will hold the House next year, recently acknowledged the possibility that he might lose the gavel.
“老天保佑，如果我们失去了这个多数，不管是什么情况，我不知道我的人生下一章该是什么，”约翰逊上周对福克斯新闻说。他开玩笑说，他可能会回到什里夫波特“开一个草坪生意”。对共和党而言，有一个好消息是，他们预计将从缅因州民主党众议员杰拉德·戈尔登的退休中受益。戈尔登曾打造出自己的独立品牌，并在特朗普以超过9分优势赢得的选区中多次克服艰难挑战。
“Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don’t know what my next chapter of life is,” Johnson told Fox News last week. He quipped that he might return to Shreveport “and start a lawn business.”On the bright side for Republicans, they’re expected to benefit from the retirement of Rep. Jared Golden, a Maine Democrat who had built his own independent brand and survived a number of tough challenges in a district Trump won by more than 9 points in 2024.
该席位如今预计将转向共和党。但这一得失也预计将被另一位共和党众议员的退休所抵消——即内布拉斯加州的唐·培根，在那里，民主党人如今被看好将赢得涵盖奥马哈的空缺席位。众议院的最终走向很可能取决于州级重新划分选区的影响。在特朗普的施压下，若干由共和党主导的州在本轮选举中重新绘制了众议院选区图，其方式专门设计为了帮助共和党。
That seat is now predicted to swing to the GOP. But that pick-up is also expected to be offset by another retirement, that of GOP Rep. Don Bacon in Nebraska, where the Democrat is now favored to win the open seat encompassing Omaha. Much of the outcome in the House could hinge on the effects of state redistricting. Pressed by Trump, a number of GOP-led states re-drew their House maps this cycle in ways specifically designed to help Republicans.
这种做法在十年中期极为罕见，其初衷是通过将若干蓝色选区转变为红色选区，来使共和党免于失去多数地位。部分原因在于，这一行动预计将见成效，因为新选区图预计将翻转目前由阿拉巴马州的肖马里·菲格斯、田纳西州的史蒂夫·科恩和路易斯安那州的克利奥·菲尔兹所持有的民主党席位。但若干民主党主导的州也以他们自己的新选区图进行了报复。
That practice, highly unusual in the middle of the decade, was intended to insulate Republicans from losing their majority by turning a number of blue seats to red. In part, that campaign is predicted to bear fruit, as the new maps are expected to flip Democratic seats currently held by Reps. Shomari Figures in Alabama, Steve Cohen in Tennessee and Cleo Fields in Louisiana. But several Democratic states retaliated with new maps of their own.
共和党人最初设想的收益在许多情况下如今变得不那么确定，因为全国情绪和势头正朝向民主党倾斜。例如在德克萨斯州，共和党人原本打算击败五名民主党人，但如今可能只能拿下两名，因为根据萨巴托专家的分析，民主党众议员亨利·库埃拉尔和维森特·冈萨雷斯有望获胜，而共和党人莫尼卡·德拉·克鲁兹正面临意外激烈的竞争。
And the gains that Republicans had initially intended are, in many cases, now much less certain given the national mood and momentum shift towards Democrats. In Texas, for instance, where Republicans sought to bump off five Democrats, they might now get only two, as Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez are favored to win, according to Sabato’s experts, while GOP Monica De La Cruz is facing an unexpectedly tough contest.
库克分析师将该选区列为“摇摆不定”。在佛罗里达州，共和党人瞄准了四个民主党席位。但其中三场竞赛——包括民主党众议员杰拉德·莫斯科维茨和凯西·卡斯特尔所在的选区——被列为“摇摆不定”类别，意味着胜利并非板上钉钉。俄亥俄州在重新划分选区后也出现类似动态，共和党人原本希望借助新地图翻转两个席位。
Cook analysts rank it a “toss up.”In Florida, Republicans targeted four Democratic seats. But three of those races — including those featuring Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Kathy Castor — are in the “toss up” category, making them no slam dunk. A similar dynamic is happening after redistricting in Ohio, where Republicans had sought to flip two seats with their new maps.
但民主党众议员格雷格·兰斯曼略微领先，而长期被共和党人瞄准的民主党众议员马西·卡普图也陷入“摇摆不定”的局面。此外，俄亥俄州共和党人还正面临围绕共和党众议员马克斯·米勒（R-俄亥俄州）的丑闻，他正面临家庭暴力指控。米勒否认这些指控，但争议已导致一个曾经可靠的共和党席位变得不确定。共和党人在密苏里州也未能达到夺取席位的目标，那里一张由共和党人绘制、旨在翻转民主党众议员埃马纽埃尔·克利弗所持席位的选区图被法院叫停。
But Rep. Greg Landsman (D) is slightly favored to win his race, and Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), a long-time target of Republicans, is in a “toss up” of her own. Ohio Republicans are also contending with a scandal surrounding Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio), who is facing allegations of domestic abuse. Miller denies the charges, but the controversy has put a once reliable red seat in play. Republicans also fell short of their pick-up goals in Missouri, where a Republican-drawn map designed to flip the seat held by Democratic Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver was shot down by the courts.
康迪克表示，重新划分选区的累积效应有利于共和党人。但鉴于当前环境，他们无法实现去年启动制图运动时所设想的双位数增长。“截至目前，我们只看到共和党人因重新划分选区而净增2-5个席位，”他说，“如果11月形势真的很糟，甚至可能少于此数。”
Kondik said the cumulative effect of redistricting favors Republicans. But given the environment, they won’t realize anything close to the double-digit gains they envisioned when they launched their map- drawing campaign last year. “As of now, we only have the Republicans netting 2-5 seats as a direct result of redistricting,” he said, “and if things are really bad in November, it may be even less than that.”