民调接连显示，共和党候选人面临麻烦 — — 在摇摆州和深红州同样如此 — — 但虽然民主党人看到蓝色浪潮正在到来，一些共和党人却认为民调是海市蜃楼。
Poll after poll spells trouble for GOP candidates — in purple states and deep-red ones alike — but while Democrats see a blue wave coming, some Republicans see a polling mirage.
为什么重要：民调机构担心他们在部分情况下是在盲目飞行。即使是微小的民调误差，也可能意味着共和党保持对国会的控制与特朗普总统面临民主党在两院占多数之间的区别。
Why it matters: Pollsters worry they're flying partly blind. Even a modest polling error could mean the difference between Republicans retaining control of Congress and President Trump facing Democratic majorities in both chambers.
大局：长期以来，对特朗普选民的民调一直臭名昭著地难以进行。民调在2016年、2020年和2024年都低估了特朗普的支持率。
The big picture: Polling Trump voters has long been notoriously difficult. The polls underestimated Trump's support in 2016, 2020 and 2024.
- 皮尤研究中心高级调查顾问斯科特·凯特尔指出，中期选举的民调虽然更准确一些，但仍有部分民调在2022年低估了共和党的支持率。
• Midterm polling has been more accurate, though some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, notes Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center.
快速了解：距离中期选举不到一个月，民调为共和党描绘出一幅黯淡的图景。
Catch up quick: With less than a month until the midterms, the polls paint a bleak picture for Republicans.
- 众议院：在RealClearPolling的国会通用选票平均值中，民主党领先共和党，得票率为49.8%对41.9%。Cook Political Report预测，民主党将赢得九到19个席位，足以赢得微弱多数。
• The House: Democrats lead Republicans 49.8%-41.9% in the RealClearPolling generic congressional ballot average. Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats, enough to win a narrow majority.
- 参议院：Cook目前认为，民主党可能实现净增两到六个席位。民主党需要赢得四个席位才能夺回控制权，而Cook刚刚将堪萨斯州参议院赛事移至其摇摆州专栏。
• The Senate: Cook now sees a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats need four to take control, and Cook just moved the Kansas Senate race into its toss-up column.
- 特朗普：根据Cook的民调追踪器，特朗普总统的批准率为37.6%。最近的一项《经济学人》/YouGov民调发现，35%的人批准其表现，60%的人不批准。
• Trump: The president's approval rating stands at 37.6% in Cook's polling tracker. A recent Economist/YouGov poll found 35% approving and 60% disapproving of his performance. State of play:
局势：研究表明，共和党人参与电话调查的意愿相比民主党人有所下降，且自20世纪90年代末以来，总体响应率已大幅下降，据
Research suggests Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys, and response rates overall have plummeted since the late 1990s, per
- “我们肯定看到，参与调查的人中，投票给[前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯]的人多于投票给特朗普总统的人，”共和党民调员、Cygnal创始人布伦特·布坎南说。“但如果你是一个好的民调员，你仍然能够获得其他人的回答。”
• "We definitely have more people answering surveys who voted for [former Vice President Kamala] Harris than who voted for President Trump," says Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster and founder of Cygnal. "But if you're a good pollster, you still get the other people."
- 民调机构可以通过给特朗普选民更大的权重或调整样本来弥补，以更好地反映共和党选民的构成——该群体倾向于男性、白人和工薪阶层。
• Pollsters can compensate by giving greater weight to Trump voters or adjusting samples to better reflect the Republican electorate, which skews male, white and working class.
- 皮尤研究中心的基特尔表示，高级统计建模工具也可以对样本进行处理，使其看起来像真实的选民群体，尽管对于年轻人或西班牙裔选民等子群体，结果可能不准确。
• Advanced statistical modeling tools can also take a poor sample and make it look like the true electorate, though results may be inaccurate for subgroups like young people or Hispanic voters, Pew's Keeter says. But that has risks:
但这也存在风险："这种调整假设参与民调的共和党人与未参与民调的共和党人是相似的，"赖斯大学政治学助理教授马修·泰勒对Axios表示。
"The adjustment assumes that the Republicans who respond to a poll are similar to the Republicans who don't respond to the poll," Rice University political science assistant professor Matthew Tyler tells Axios.
- 泰勒表示，如果愿意参与民调的共和党人同时也比从不参与民调的共和党人更倾向于投票给民主党，那么过度加权共和党受访者可能会适得其反。这可能导致民主党浪潮的规模被夸大。
• Tyler said weighting GOP respondents more heavily can backfire if those willing to answer polls are also more willing to vote Democratic than the Republicans who never respond. That could inflate the apparent size of a Democratic wave.
言之有物：预测谁会实际投票可能会显著改变结果。
Between the lines: Predicting who will actually vote can dramatically change the results.
- 尤戈夫首席科学家道格拉斯·里弗斯发现，在一项9月的调查中，民主党的领先幅度因可能投票者的识别方式不同而介于6到16个百分点之间——他称这一16个百分点的差距"几乎肯定是被夸大的。"
• YouGov chief scientist Douglas Rivers found Democratic leads ranging from six to 16 points depending on how likely voters were identified in a September survey — and called the 16-point margin "almost certainly an overstatement." The bottom line:
结论：尽管近期民调的准确性存在疑问，但大多数民调机构仍认为民主党在选举日前具有优势。
Even with the questions about the accuracy of recent polls, most pollsters believe Democrats have the edge heading into Election Day.
- "我认为这告诉我们，我们正把希望寄托在'民调是错的'这一点上，"布坎南说。"这并不是一个很有力的依据。"
• "I think it's telling that we're hanging our hopes on, 'The polls are wrong,'" Buchanan says. "That's not very strong."