蓝色浪潮来了。甚至可能是蓝色海啸。按照这个速度，民主党人可能想停止订购庭院标志，并开始订购救生衣。共和党人面临粗暴的中期逆风。六股力量可以帮助他们反抗历史。听着，我明白了。现在的民意调查对民主党来说非常好。最新的福克斯新闻权力排名显示，民主党在普通国会投票的可能选民中领先11个百分点。
The blue wave is coming. Maybe even a blue tsunami. At this rate, Democrats may want to stop ordering yard signs and start ordering life jackets. REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY. And look, I get it. The polls are very good for Democrats right now. The latest Fox News Power Rankings has Democrats ahead by 11 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
路透社/益普索在选民中领先。李卡特：我研究民意调查。民主党人正在赌反特朗普的选票，而不是唐纳德特朗普总统的支持率正在挣扎。选民们对物价很不满。民主党人有热情优势。如果你是民主党人，有很多值得喜欢的。如果您是共和党人，也许可以跳过几段。但我是一名民意调查专家。当每个人都开始看同样的数字并得出同样的结论时，我有点发痒。
Reuters/Ipsos has them ahead by amonged voters. LEE CARTER: I STUDY POLLING. DEMOCRATS ARE GAMBLING ON ANTI-TRUMP VOTES, NOT IDEAS President Donald Trump’s approval rating is struggling. Voters are miserable about prices. Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage. If you’re a Democrat, there is a lot to like. If you’re a Republican, maybe skip ahead a few paragraphs. But I’m a pollster. And when everyone starts looking at the same numbers and reaching the same conclusion, I get a little itchy.
不是因为我不相信民意调查。我知道问题是我们是否要求他们告诉我们比他们实际能告诉的更多。民意调查清楚地告诉我们，很多美国人对特朗普不满意。福克斯新闻权力排名：选民称他们陷入经济困境，但民主党会获胜吗？我认为他们还没有回答的是，这些美国人是否相信替代方案。但我是一名民意调查专家。当每个人都开始看同样的数字并得出同样的结论时，我有点发痒。
Not because I don’t believe the polls. I do. The question is whether we’re asking them to tell us more than they actually can. The polls are telling us pretty clearly that a lot of Americans are unhappy with Trump. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: VOTERS SAY THEY’RE IN ECONOMIC PAIN, BUT WILL DEMOCRATS GAIN? What I don’t think they’ve answered yet is whether those same Americans believe in the alternative. But I’m a pollster. And when everyone starts looking at the same numbers and reaching the same conclusion, I get a little itchy.
而且有一个非常大的区别。中期选举和民主党获胜还有100天，因为他们实际上有一个信息2018年，民主党有一件非常简单的事情--医疗保健。不是一个框架。不是一个14点计划。直到房间里的每个人都同意它“易于访问”，才在焦点小组中测试过任何一个词。“一个事业。共和党人曾试图废除奥巴马医改。选民担心失去对已有疾病的覆盖和保护。您可以在大约八秒内解释赌注。
And there is a very big difference. 100 DAYS UNTIL MIDTERMS AND DEMOCRATS ARE WINNING BECAUSE THEY ACTUALLY HAVE A MESSAGE In 2018, Democrats had something wonderfully simple – Healthcare. Not a framework. Not a 14-point plan. Not a word tested in a focus group until everyone in the room agreed it was "accessible." A cause. Republicans had tried to repeal Obamacare. Voters worried about losing coverage and protections for pre-existing conditions. You could explain the stakes in about eight seconds.
更重要的是，你可以完成这句话：我投票是因为__。医疗保健填补了空白。事实确实如此。在2018年中期选举之前的民意调查中，对更多选民来说，医疗保健是最重要的问题，而不是任何其他问题。那么，2026年的空白是什么？好吧，民主党人有一个词。负担能力。中期历史极大地支持民主党。但他们犯了一个很大的错误，这一年过得很愉快。
More importantly, you could finish the sentence: I’m voting because __. Healthcare filled in the blank. And it did. Healthcare was the most important issue for more voters than any other issue in polling leading into the 2018 midterms. So, what fills in the blank in 2026? Well, Democrats have a word. Affordability. MIDTERM HISTORY MASSIVELY FAVORS DEMOCRATS. BUT THEY ARE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE And it is having quite a year.
每个人都支持负担能力。民主党人支持负担能力。共和党人支持负担能力。人们对切碎的沙拉收取24美元的价格大概是为了负担得起。选民对价格绝对感到愤怒。因此，问题不在于选民是否关心负担能力。他们关心。很多问题是：负担能力意味着民主党实际上要做什么？因为负担能力很好地描述了这个问题。那么，2026年的空白是什么？
Everyone is for affordability. Democrats are for affordability. Republicans are for affordability. People who charge $24 for a chopped salad are presumably for affordability. And voters are absolutely furious about prices. So, the problem isn’t whether voters care about affordability. They care. A lot. The question is: What does affordability mean Democrats are actually going to do? Because affordability describes the problem beautifully. So, what fills in the blank in 2026?
好吧，民主党人有一个词。负担能力。这是相当精彩的一年。它不一定描述解决方案。重新划分给共和党人带来了优势，但负担能力将决定中期选举。对我来说，这就是数字变得有趣的地方。皮尤询问美国人他们更同意哪个政党的经济政策。记住我们正在谈论的环境。只有24%的人认为经济良好或优秀。十分之六的人表示特朗普的经济政策使经济状况变得更糟。
Well, Democrats have a word. Affordability. And it is having quite a year. It doesn’t necessarily describe the solution. REDISTRICTING GIVES REPUBLICANS AN EDGE, BUT AFFORDABILITY WILL DECIDE THE MIDTERMS That’s where, to me, the numbers get interesting. Pew asked Americans which party’s economic policies they agreed with more. Remember the environment we’re talking about. Only 24% rated the economy good or excellent. Six in 10 said Trump’s economic policies had made economic conditions worse.
经济处于前沿和中心。特朗普正在苦苦挣扎。民主党在国会投票中领先。然而，在经济政策方面：民主党人：37%。共和党人：36%。一分。甚至没有误差幅度。这就是我无法停止思考的数字。因为民主党人可能正在赢得对特朗普的公投，但尚未为自己赢得争论。这是两场截然不同的胜利。拒绝并不是皈依。我认为这就是我们可能超前的地方。选民可以对特朗普感到不满，而不会疯狂地爱上民主党。
The economy is front and center. Trump is struggling. Democrats are leading the congressional ballot. And yet, on economic policy: Democrats: 37%. Republicans: 36%. One point. Not even the margin of error. That’s the number I can’t stop thinking about. Because Democrats may be winning the referendum on Trump without yet winning the argument for themselves. And those are two very different victories. Rejection isn’t conversion. This is where I think we may be getting ahead of ourselves. A voter can be unhappy with Trump without falling madly in love with Democrats.
这些并不是相互排斥的立场。事实上，从美国人对政治的普遍看法来看，这可能是全国共识。你可以认为共和党在价格问题上失败了，却不相信民主党知道如何解决问题。当民意调查专家在九月份打电话时，你可以更喜欢民主党，但在十一月份仍然没有特别积极地投票。你可以拼命地想要改变，但对你现有的选择仍然非常不信服。
These are not mutually exclusive positions. In fact, judging by Americans’ views of politics generally, they may be the national consensus. You can think Republicans have failed on prices without believing Democrats know how to fix them. You can prefer a Democrat when a pollster calls in September and still not be particularly motivated to vote in November. You can desperately want change and remain profoundly unconvinced by your available choices.
这就是为什么我不否认今天民主党的民意调查优势。我问的是它的本质。是一种偏好吗？是抗议吗？或者这是一个原因？经济处于前沿和中心。特朗普正在苦苦挣扎。民主党在国会投票中领先。然而，在经济政策方面：民主党人：37%。共和党人：36%。因为事业会让人们走出家门。民主党还有一个小问题，那就是决定他们相信什么。
That’s why I’m not dismissing today’s Democratic polling advantage. I’m asking what is underneath it. Is it a preference? Is it a protest? Or is it a cause? The economy is front and center. Trump is struggling. Democrats are leading the congressional ballot. And yet, on economic policy: Democrats: 37%. Republicans: 36%. Because causes get people out of the house. Democrats also have the small matter of deciding what they believe There isn’t exactly one Democratic Party right now.
现在还没有一个民主党。有一个进步的民主党谈论企业权力、住房和根本性经济变革。有一个中左翼民主党谈论能力、稳定性和降低成本。有些民主党人试图赢回特朗普选民。民主党试图重建奥巴马联盟。民主党试图完全建立一个新的联盟。他们都可以说负担能力。我不太确定他们会以同样的方式完成句子。选民不仅需要知道你反对什么。
There is a progressive Democratic Party talking about corporate power, housing and fundamental economic change. There is a center-left Democratic Party talking about competence, stability and lowering costs. There are Democrats trying to win back Trump voters. Democrats trying to rebuild the Obama coalition. Democrats trying to create a new coalition altogether. They can all say affordability. I’m less certain they would all finish the sentence the same way. And voters don’t only need to know what you’re against.
最终，他们想知道你要带他们去哪里。共和党人到底用这些做什么？这就是共和党人可能想要抵制华盛顿最喜欢的消遣：向选民解释选民为什么错了。如果人们说杂货太贵了，告诉他们经济实际上很棒并不太可能让鸡蛋更便宜。如果他们说他们被混乱搞得筋疲力尽，那么制造更多混乱似乎是一种不寻常的选民保留策略。
Eventually, they want to know where you’re taking them. And what on earth do Republicans do with that? This is where Republicans might want to resist a favorite Washington pastime: explaining to voters why voters are wrong. If people say groceries are too expensive, telling them the economy is actually terrific is unlikely to make the eggs cheaper. If they say they’re exhausted by chaos, producing more chaos seems an unusual voter-retention strategy.
如果他们说负担能力是他们最关心的问题，那么改变这个话题可能会对新闻周期有效。它不会改变杂货账单。但问题是选民并没有完全放弃共和党的政策。皮尤研究中心发现，两党本质上与经济政策息息相关。共和党在移民问题上仍然占有优势，在犯罪问题上也占有更大的优势。因此，这不一定是选民说：我们已经接受了民主党的世界观。
And if they say affordability is their biggest concern, changing the subject may work for a news cycle. It doesn’t change the grocery bill. But here’s the thing. Voters haven’t completely abandoned Republican policies. Pew found the parties essentially tied on economic policy. Republicans still had an advantage on immigration and a much larger advantage on crime. So, this isn’t necessarily an electorate saying: We have embraced the Democratic worldview.
它可能是在说：我们不太喜欢你处理钥匙的事情。他们都可以说负担能力。我不太确定他们会以同样的方式完成句子。选民不仅需要知道你反对什么。最终，他们想知道你要带他们去哪里。这是一个不同的问题。民主党人必须将不满转化为信仰。共和党人必须让选民相信，如果他们有更多时间，他们选举他们做的事情实际上会让他们的生活变得更好。
It may be saying: We don’t particularly like what you’re doing with the keys. They can all say affordability. I’m less certain they would all finish the sentence the same way. And voters don’t only need to know what you’re against. Eventually, they want to know where you’re taking them. That’s a different problem. Democrats have to turn dissatisfaction into belief. Republicans have to convince voters that the things they elected them to do are actually making their lives better if they get more time.
双方都在努力缩小差距。对于民主党人来说，这是拒绝和皈依之间的差距。对于共和党人来说，这是政策和生活经验之间的差距。而且没有人通过更大声地喊出负担能力来弥补这一差距。选民已经知道事情成本太高了。他们不需要另一位政治家来发现问题。他们需要一些理由来相信有人可以真正解决这个问题。现在，关于这些民意调查，我是一名民意调查专家，所以我想非常明确：相信他们。
Both parties are trying to close a gap. For Democrats, it’s the gap between rejection and conversion. For Republicans, it’s the gap between policy and lived experience. And neither one gets across that gap by shouting affordability more loudly. Voters already know things cost too much. They don’t need another politician to identify the problem. They need some reason to believe somebody can actually solve it. Now, about those polls I’m a pollster, so I want to be very clear: Believe them.
当一项又一项的民意调查显示民主党领先时，这是有意义的。当特朗普的支持率下降时，这是有意义的。当选民一再表示负担能力是他们最关心的问题时，这是有意义的。当民意调查告诉我们选民今天的处境时，它已经发挥了作用。我们遇到麻烦的地方是当我们把快照变成剧本并开始写结局时。密歇根州和威斯康星州今年夏天给了我们一个有用的提醒。教训并不是民意调查被破坏了。对于民主党人来说，这是拒绝和皈依之间的差距。
When poll after poll shows Democrats ahead, that’s meaningful. When Trump’s approval falls, that’s meaningful. When voters repeatedly say affordability is their biggest concern, that’s meaningful. A poll is doing its job when it tells us where voters are today. Where we get into trouble is when we turn a snapshot into a screenplay and start writing the ending. Michigan and Wisconsin gave us a useful reminder of that this summer. The lesson wasn’t that polling is broken. For Democrats, it’s the gap between rejection and conversion.
对于共和党人来说，这是政策和生活经验之间的差距。而且没有人通过更大声地喊出负担能力来弥补这一差距。它没有那么戏剧性。选民行动起来。犹豫不决的人最终会做出决定。投票率很难建模。热情有时会让一个群体比另一个群体更容易被看到。换句话说：强度并不代表流行率。流行率并不代表投票率。这并不是反对民意调查的论点。
For Republicans, it’s the gap between policy and lived experience. And neither one gets across that gap by shouting affordability more loudly. It was much less dramatic. Voters move. Undecided people eventually decide. Turnout is hard to model. And enthusiasm can sometimes make one group much easier to see than another. In other words: Intensity isn’t prevalence. And prevalence isn’t turnout. That’s not an argument against polling.
这是一个反对对此沾沾自喜的论点。这让我们回到了蓝色海啸它会发生吗？当然了当前的政治环境给了民主党充分的乐观理由。负担能力可能成为2026年版本的医疗保健。对特朗普的反对本身可能成为动机。民主党可以在剩下的几周里将“负担能力”从一个词变成选民理解和相信的论点。但这与说结果是不可避免的不同。
It’s an argument against getting cocky about it. Which brings us back to the blue tsunami Could it happen? Absolutely. The current political environment gives Democrats plenty of reasons for optimism. Affordability could become the 2026 version of healthcare. Opposition to Trump could itself become the motivating cause. Democrats could spend the remaining weeks turning "affordability" from a word into an argument voters understand and believe. But that’s different from saying the outcome is inevitable.
现在选民们最让我印象深刻的不是热情。是疲惫。他们厌倦了特朗普。他们厌倦了民主党。他们厌倦了华盛顿。他们厌倦了为一切付出太多的代价。他们甚至可能厌倦了被问到有多累。这是一个不稳定的选民。反复无常的选民有一个令人尴尬的习惯，那就是让那些认为他们已经弄清楚了的人感到尴尬。所以，是的，民主党人应该对民意调查感到高兴。
What strikes me most about voters right now isn’t enthusiasm. It’s exhaustion. They’re tired of Trump. They’re tired of Democrats. They’re tired of Washington. They’re tired of paying too much for everything. They may even be tired of being asked how tired they are. That’s a volatile electorate. And volatile electorates have a nasty habit of embarrassing people who think they’ve figured them out. So yes, Democrats should be happy about the polls.
共和党人应该担心他们。但任何一方都不应将不满误认为忠诚。决定这次选举的问题不仅仅是美国人是否对唐纳德特朗普感到失望。我们知道他们中的许多人都是。这是民主党人是否能给这些选民一些肯定的信念。民主党可以在剩下的几周里将“负担能力”从一个词变成选民理解和相信的论点。但这与说结果是不可避免的不同。以及共和党人是否可以给他们一些肯定的选择。
Republicans should be worried about them. But neither party should mistake unhappiness for allegiance. The question that will decide this election isn’t simply whether Americans are disappointed in Donald Trump. We know many of them are. It’s whether Democrats can give those voters something affirmative to believe in. Democrats could spend the remaining weeks turning "affordability" from a word into an argument voters understand and believe. But that’s different from saying the outcome is inevitable. And whether Republicans can give them something affirmative to choose.
2018年，民主党有医疗保健。单击此处了解更多福克斯新闻观点2026年，他们有能力负担。.另一个仍然是一个词。暂时而已来自李·卡特
In 2018, Democrats had healthcare. In 2026, they have affordability. . The other is still a word. For now. FROM LEE CARTER