从今天起四周后，美国民众将前往投票站，决定国家未来两年的走向。共和党人需警惕：局势正在发生变化。
Four weeks from today, Americans will go to the polls and set the country’s course for the next two years. Heads up to Republicans: things are shifting.
自由派媒体对一系列民调结果欣喜不已——这些民调显示共和党在关键的参议院选举中处于劣势，还有民调预测共和党很可能失去众议院控制权。不过，他们所预言的“民主党大胜潮”真的会成真吗？
The liberal media is positively giddy over polls showing Republicans lagging in key Senate races, and others showing the GOP likely to lose the House. But are their happy forecasts of a blue wave likely to prove right?
或许会如此，但也有迹象表明选民开始更仔细地审视民主党候选人，而他们的表现并未赢得选民青睐。资深民主党人士黛布拉·梅辛公开支持纽约州共和党人布鲁斯·布莱克曼竞选州长，而非现任州长凯西·霍楚尔，这便是一个信号。向来被民主党视为“软目标”的共和党资深参议员苏珊·柯林斯目前领先于对手；密歇根州的民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德则刚刚失去了某重要工会的支持。
Maybe, but there are signs that voters are beginning to look at Democrat candidates more closely, and they don’t like what they see. When long-time Democrat Debra Messing endorses Republican Bruce Blakeman for governor in New York State over incumbent Kathy Hochul, something is afoot. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, considered vulnerable by Democrats, now leads her opponent and Michigan Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed just lost the endorsement of an important union.
此外，在2024年曾投票给卡玛拉·哈里斯的明尼苏达州，候选人米歇尔·塔福亚有望成为自2009年以来该州首位共和党籍参议员。
Meanwhile, in Minnesota, which went for Kamala Harris in 2024, candidate Michele Tafoya could become the first Republican senator from the state since 2009.
晨光中的启示：五场参议院选举揭示为何民主党或许会为初选选择而后悔。目前民主党人并不受民众欢迎。尽管他们大肆渲染唐纳德·特朗普的低支持率，但据Real Clear Polling的综合数据，民主党的民众好感度仅为39%，与总统的支持率持平。
MORNING GLORY: FIVE SENATE RACES SHOW WHY DEMOCRATS MAY REGRET THEIR PRIMARY CHOICES Democrats are not popular. For all they celebrate Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, the reality is that the Real Clear Polling averages put Democrats’ favorability at 39%, exactly tied with the president.
媒体也在刻意渲染最糟糕的情形，试图以此抑制共和党人的投票率与竞选资金。这确实是个高明的策略：一旦选民认定己方必败无疑，他们很可能选择放弃投票、不再支持本党候选人。
The media are also playing up worst-case scenarios in a determined effort to drive down Republican turnout and campaign funds. It’s a clever strategy. If voters think their cause is lost, they may well stay home and decline to back local candidates.
李·卡特：民调显示民主党有望压倒共和党。作为一名民调专家，我有个疑问。致选民们：现在下定论还为时过早。从现在到11月，局势可能发生诸多变化。事实上，随着选举周期的推进，民调结果的可靠性似乎在逐渐下降，而且它们也极易受到人为操控。例如，最近《纽约时报》与《波特兰新闻先驱报》联合西耶纳学院在缅因州开展的民调显示柯林斯处于领先态势，但撰写该报告的作者却惊讶地指出，此次民调的样本分布“明显对民主党有利”。
LEE CARTER: POLLS SAY DEMOCRATS COULD SWAMP REPUBLICANS. AS A POLLSTER, I HAVE A QUESTION Note to voters: it’s far too early to reach that conclusion. Much can change between now and November. The polls are seemingly becoming less reliable with every election cycle and can also be easily manipulated. In a recent New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey of Maine that shows Collins in the lead, for instance, the surprised author writes it has "a sample that looks reasonably favorable to Democrats."
就连《华盛顿邮报》也在近期一篇文章中承认：“有诸多迹象表明民调结果可能高估了民主党的实力。”与此同时，种种迹象表明，日益严格的监督或许对那些试图在密歇根州、缅因州及其他地区竞选参议员的激进左派人士不利。
Even the Washington Post admits in a recent piece, "There are reasons to suspect polls could be overestimating Democrats’ strength." Meanwhile, there are signs that increased scrutiny may not bode well for the radical leftists running for senate seats in Michigan, in Maine, or elsewhere.
在密歇根州，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德最近失去了该州消防员工会的支持。该工会负责人称，工会原本就打算在本次选举中保持中立，而此次选举的对手还包括共和党人迈克·罗杰斯；埃尔-赛义德的名字出现在支持名单上纯属文书工作上的失误。
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed recently lost the endorsement of the state’s firefighters union. The head of that labor group claims it had always meant to remain neutral in the race, which also features Republican Mike Rogers, and that El-Sayed’s name on a list of endorsements was a clerical mistake.
至少一名工会官员对这一说法提出异议，他表示，埃尔-赛义德对执法的负面看法导致了他的组织的恶化。他告诉当地一家新闻机构，“阿卜杜勒·赛义德……在支持取消对警察的资助并废除我们监狱系统相当一部分的组织中担任职务。"
That account is disputed by at least one union official who says it was El-Sayed’s negative views of law enforcement that soured his organization. He told a local news outfit, "Abdul El-Sayed has …held positions within organizations that support defunding the police and abolishing a considerable portion of our prison system."
历史报纸因埃尔·赛义德隐瞒过去而受到救助而受到救助。CNN政治证实，埃尔·赛义德明确支持反警察运动，并在2020年的一次采访中表示：“我们确实需要取消对警察的资助。"
HISTORIC NEWSPAPER GIVES EL-SAYED A SAVAGE REBUKE FOR HIDING HIS PAST WHILE ENDORSING HIS OPPONENT CNN Politics confirmed that El-Sayed explicitly endorsed the anti-cop movement, stating in a 2020 interview, "We do need to defund the police."
共和党人在深入研究埃尔-赛义德的过去时强调了这位候选人的一条推文，称：“警察如此频繁地杀害黑人，这一事实告诉我们社会认为谁是‘公众’的一部分，以及他们应该受到谁的保护。这不仅仅是几个坏警察--这是一个白人至上主义的整个体系。“早晨的荣耀：埃尔-赛义德可能对密歇根州的黑人投票有异议埃尔-赛义德可能希望隐藏那些冒犯性的过去言论，但抹去历史的日子早已一去不复返了。埃尔-赛义德还与臭名昭著的反以色列影响者哈桑·派克（Hasan Piker）一起竞选，他声称美国“应得9/11”。“这不能让大多数选民满意。
Republicans, digging into El-Sayed’s past, are highlighting a tweet from the candidate saying, "The fact that cops kill Black folks so regularly tells us who society considers part of the ’public’ & from whom they are to be kept safe. Its not just a few bad cops — it’s an entire SYSTEM of white supremacy." MORNING GLORY: EL-SAYED MIGHT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THE BLACK VOTE IN MICHIGAN El-Sayed likely hoped to keep those offensive past remarks hidden, but the days of erasing history are long gone. El-Sayed is also tagged with campaigning with Hasan Piker, the infamous anti-Israel influencer who claimed America "deserved 9/11." That cannot sit well with most voters.
密歇根州的竞选是一场悬而未决的比赛; Real Clear民意调查显示，最近的调查显示，埃尔-赛义德领先罗杰斯一两个百分点，在误差范围内。
The Michigan race is a toss-up; Real Clear Polling shows recent surveys have El-Sayed one or two points ahead of Rogers, within the margin of error.
在2024年以7个百分点的差距支持卡玛拉·哈里斯的缅因州，民主党前州参议员特洛伊·杰克逊试图击败任职已久的共和党人苏珊·柯林斯，但进展艰难。民主党原本将这场选举视为翻盘良机——这是哈里斯获胜的唯一一个有共和党现任参议员参选的州。然而，他们最初却选择了名不见经传的民粹主义者格雷厄姆·普拉特纳作为候选人。
In Maine, which went for Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, Democratic former state Senator Troy Jackson is struggling in his bid to unseat long-serving Republican Collins. Democrats considered this race a prime pick-up opportunity — the only state won by Harris that had a GOP senator running for reelection. But, they initially chose unknown populist Graham Platner to be their candidate, despite revelations that he sported a Nazi tattoo, had voiced racist opinions online, was not actually a working-class oysterman but rather had received significant financial support from his well-off father, and was accused of infidelity.
后来有消息曝光：普拉特纳身上有纳粹纹身，曾在网上发表过种族主义言论；他并非真正的工人阶级牡蛎养殖者，而是得到了家境富裕的父亲大量经济资助；此外他还被指控有出轨行为。直到出现可信的性侵指控后，普拉特纳才被迫退出竞选，于是杰克逊临危受命接手竞选事务。
It took credible charges of sexual assault to boot Platner from the race, leaving fill-in Jackson to carry on the campaign.
选民们对杰克逊并不买账。他既没有普拉特纳那样的个人魅力，竞选策略也乏善可陈。《纽约时报》近期的一项民调显示，柯林斯领先3个百分点。该民调的负责人此前在多个共和党占优的州进行的民调结果对民主党较为有利，但他如今表示：“如果民主党连缅因州都赢不下来，实在难以想象他们怎么能在堪萨斯州具备真正的竞争力。”目前共和党正面临中期选举的严峻挑战，不过有六大因素或许能助他们打破历史规律、逆势取胜。
Voters are not ecstatic about Jackson, who lacks Platner’s charisma, and who is running an uninspired campaign. A recent New York Times poll showed Collins ahead by three points; the author of the survey, whose recent red state polls were more promising for Democrats, found it "hard to imagine how Democrats could seriously be competitive in Kansas if they can’t even win Maine." REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
有趣的是，《纽约时报》的作者在文末总结道：“柯林斯女士之所以领先，原因或许很简单：人们更喜欢她，也认为她能成为更称职的参议员。” 民主党人寄望于选民对特朗普总统的厌恶情绪能助力该党在11月赢得胜利。用《纽约时报》的话来说，尽管对柯林斯的高支持率感到困惑，“但这似乎与特朗普极其不受欢迎的现状相矛盾。”
Hilariously, the Times writer concludes: "Ms. Collins may be leading for a simple reason: People like her better and think she would be a better senator." Democrats are banking on voters’ dislike for President Trump carrying their party to victory in November. To quote the Times, still puzzling over Collin’s favorability, "It also just seems inconsistent with Mr. Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity."
不过，尽管总统一再呼吁自己的支持者假装他也在竞选名单上……事实上他并未参选。对于那些担忧民主党反犹倾向、担心民主党掌控的国会会急于重新开放边境、阻止对福利欺诈行为的调查、撤销使联邦公务员人数降至60年来最低水平的开支削减措施、提高税收、恢复拜登时期那些限制石油行业的绿色能源政策，以及废除那些推动经济实现数十年来罕见增长速度（新冠疫情后除外）的亲商业政策的选民而言，特朗普糟糕的民调数据或许无关紧要。
But, despite the president’s exhortations to his base to pretend he’s on the ballot…he is not. His poor polling may not matter to voters worried about Democrats’ antisemitism or the likelihood that a Democrat-run Congress would rush to reopen the border, block investigations into welfare fraud, reverse cuts to spending that have driven the federal workforce to the lowest level in 60 years, raise taxes, reinstitute the green energy anti-oil diktats of the Biden era, and undo the business-friendly policies that have boosted economic growth to rates not seen in decades (other than post-Covid.)
共和党拥有充裕的资金，可在未来四周内大力宣传这些观点。为了国家的利益，我们衷心希望他们能切实做到这一点。
The GOP has considerable money to spend getting that message out in the next four weeks. Let us hope for the good of the country they do just that.