数十年来，政治顾问一直在寻找那难以捉摸的摇摆选民。你认识她。她坐在宾夕法尼亚州的一家餐馆里，盯着咖啡发呆，纠结于是该投共和党还是民主党的票。民调机构在给她打电话。记者在采访她。竞选团队花费数百万美元试图赢得她的支持。但也许我们一直在找错人。
For decades, political consultants have been hunting the elusive swing voter. You know her. She's sitting in a Pennsylvania diner, staring into her coffee, agonizing over whether to vote Republican or Democrat. Pollsters call her. Reporters interview her. Campaigns spend millions trying to win her over. But maybe we've been looking for the wrong person.
李·卡特：夏季民调偏离了重点：选民正在流动 — — 而中期选举已经开始。如果美国最重要的摇摆选民并不是在共和党和民主党之间做选择呢？如果他们是在投票和不投票之间做选择呢？
LEE CARTER: THE SUMMER POLLS MISSED THE POINT: VOTERS ARE MOVING — AND THE MIDTERMS BEGIN What if the most important swing voter in America isn't deciding between Republicans and Democrats? What if they're deciding between voting and staying home?
作为一名民调专家，我职业生涯一直在研究美国人为什么会改变主意。但数据表明，我们应该更加关注美国人改变习惯的情况。
As a pollster, I've spent my career studying why Americans change their minds.
所有人都在关注德克萨斯州和密歇根州。作为一名民调专家，我知道真正的故事在哪里。请看2024年。
But the numbers suggest we should be paying a lot more attention to Americans changing their habits. Consider 2024.
根据皮尤研究中心的数据，尽管有资格投票，但有12%的选民既没有参加2020年总统大选，也没有参加2022年中期选举。
According to Pew Research, 12% of voters had skipped both the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 midterms, despite being eligible to vote.
与此同时，在所有三次选举中都投票的人几乎平分秋色：特朗普50%，哈里斯48%。
President Donald Trump won that group by 14 points.
而在所有有资格参加这三次选举的美国人中，只有41%的人实际上在这三次选举中都投了票。
Meanwhile, the people who voted in all three elections split almost evenly: Trump 50%, Harris 48%.
我们花费巨资试图说服人们换党，而实际上有数百万人甚至连第一次投票都做不到。
And of all Americans eligible to vote in those three elections, just 41% actually voted in all three.
记者手记：众议院控制权可能取决于旧的政治规则是否仍然适用。2022年，共和党赢得了众议院普选票。但在同时参加2020年和2022年选举的人中，只有6%在任选一次选举中换了党或投了第三党候选人的票。什么发生了变化？投票率。
We're spending fortunes trying to convince people to switch parties while millions can't be counted on to show up in the first place. In 2022, Republicans won the House popular vote. But among people who voted in both 2020 and 2022, just 6% switched parties or voted for a third-party candidate in either election. What changed? Turnout.
中期选举历史上对民主党极为有利。但他们正在犯一个大错误。特朗普2020年的选民中有71%在2022年回归。而乔·拜登总统的选民中只有67%回归。共和党人不需要数百万民主党人改变主意。他们之所以受益，是因为更多的本党选民出现了。现在来看2026年的奇怪算术。
Seventy-one percent of Trump's 2020 voters returned in 2022. Only 67% of President Joe Biden's did. Republicans didn't need millions of Democrats to change their minds. They benefited because more of their own voters showed up. Now consider the strange arithmetic of 2026.
福克斯新闻民调：因成本压力、选民沮丧而转向民主党。自2018年以来，共和党在选民登记方面取得了巨大进展。相对于民主党，他们的登记优势在北卡罗来纳州提高了八个百分点，在宾夕法尼亚州提高了七个百分点，在内华达州提高了五个百分点，在亚利桑那州提高了四个百分点。这些不是民调。它们是实际的选民登记记录。
Republicans have made enormous gains in voter registration since 2018. Their registration margin relative to Democrats has improved by eight percentage points in North Carolina, seven in Pennsylvania, five in Nevada and four in Arizona. These aren't polls. They're actual voter-registration records.
民主党人认为蓝色浪潮正在形成。但以下3种力量可能会阻止它。但民主党目前拥有共和党所不具备的东西：更高的报告热情。皮尤研究中心的一项新调查发现，63%的民主党众议院候选人支持者表示他们极有动力去投票。而在共和党支持者中，只有46%的人这么说。
But Democrats have something Republicans currently lack: greater reported enthusiasm. A new Pew survey finds 63% of Democratic House-candidate supporters say they're extremely motivated to vote. Among Republican supporters, just 46% say the same.
因此，共和党人已经巩固了他们的登记优势。民主党人听起来渴望投票的程度要高得多。而且两党目前都不应过早庆祝。
So, Republicans have strengthened their registration position. Democrats sound much more eager to vote. And neither party should be celebrating just yet.
2022年，美国的中期选举选民登记率达到了数十年来的最高水平。但实际投票的符合条件的美国人数量却少于2018年。显然，填写表格比找到投票站更容易。
In 2022, America had its highest midterm voter-registration rate in decades. Yet fewer eligible Americans actually voted than in 2018. Apparently, filling out the paperwork is easier than finding your way to the polling place.
这就是为什么，距离选举日还有不到三周时，我会更少关注民调中的另一个两点波动，而更多关注谁实际上在投票。
Which is why, with less than three weeks until Election Day, I'd be paying less attention to another two-point movement in the polls and more attention to who's actually voting.
上次中期选举中弃权的人是否回来了？特朗普在2024年动员起来的选民是否在他不在选票上的情况下依然会出现？民主党人的热情是否会转化为实际选票？那些新登记的共和党选民是否真的会去投票？这些问题两党都无法忽视。
Are the people who skipped the last midterms coming back? Are the voters Trump brought out in 2024 showing up without his name on the ballot? Will Democrats' enthusiasm translate into votes? And are those newly registered Republicans actually voting? These are questions neither party can afford to ignore.
当然，说服仍然很重要。人们会改变主意。我以研究人们如何以及为何改变主意为职业。
Of course, persuasion still matters. People change their minds. I've made a career studying how and why.
但我们已经花了数十年时间把选举当作拔河比赛来对待，共和党人和民主党人为少数站在中间的选手而争夺。
But we've spent decades treating elections like a tug-of-war, with Republicans and Democrats fighting over a handful of voters standing in the middle.
有时结果会改变，因为人们换了阵营。有时结果会改变，因为一方出现了，而另一方没有。
Sometimes the outcome changes because people switch sides. Sometimes it changes because one side shows up and the other doesn't.
摇摆选民并没有消失。我们只是把摇摆定义得太窄了。过去的摇摆选民是在决定谁值得他们投下选票。新的摇摆选民不一定要换阵营。有时，他们只是选择不参与。
The swing voter hasn't disappeared. We've just been defining the swing too narrowly. The old swing voter was deciding who deserved their vote. The new swing voter doesn't necessarily switch sides. Sometimes, they switch off.
而美国最重要的未决定选民可能已经确切地决定了他们会投谁的票。他们只是还没决定自己是否愿意去投票。
And the most important undecided voter in America may have already decided exactly whom they'd vote for. They just haven't decided whether they're going to bother.