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拉美裔选民对共和党日益不满,或将成为中期选举的决定性力量Hispanic Voters, Souring on Republicans, Could Decide the Midterms

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西班牙裔选民正在对共和党失望。原因何在?西班牙裔选民助力特朗普在2024年赢得大选胜利。共和党原以为正在见证一场重大且永久的政治版图重组,这将让他们在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等地锁定长达一代人的执政优势。

Hispanic voters are souring on Republicans. Here’s why. Hispanic voters helped to power President Trump’s victory in 2024. Republicans thought they were watching a major, and permanent, realignment, one that would lock in their power in places like Texas and Florida for a generation.

然而民调显示,这些选民已迅速对共和党失望。这可能成为中期选举最大的看点之一。

Polling suggests, though, that these voters have quickly soured on Republicans That could be one of the biggest stories of the midterm elections.

今天,我请来了两位优秀记者——他们分别驻守东西海岸——帮我们读懂这一变化。

Today, I asked two terrific reporters who work on opposite sides of the country to help us understand the change.

珍妮弗·梅迪纳是驻西海岸的政治记者,她深入基层,沿美墨边境走访,倾听选民心态的转变。

Jennifer Medina a politics reporter based on the West Coast, has dug into it at the grass-roots level, traveling the U.S.-Mexico border to hear how voters’ thinking is shifting.

埃里卡·格林负责白宫报道,本周她亲历了特朗普试图——可以说未能成功地——争取这些选民支持的过程。

Erica Green covers the White House, and she was there this week as Trump attempted — arguably unsuccessfully — to appeal to these voters.

她们在Slack上参加了首期"政治圆桌"访谈,这也是我计划在大选日临近时(距今32天!)持续推出的系列节目。欢迎发邮件至 onpolitics@nytimes.com,告诉我下次想让我请记者聊聊什么主题。

They joined me on Slack for the inaugural On Politics round table, which is something I plan to do again as we draw closer to Election Day (32 days to go!). Drop me a line at onpolitics@nytimes.com and tell me what theme you’d like me to ask our reporters about next time.

杰斯:珍妮,你刚从南德克萨斯之行回来,那里的选民在2024年强力支持特朗普——但现在有几个国会选区已陷入胶着。你在那里听到了选民怎样的心声?珍妮:里奥格兰德河谷正是你提到的那场政治转向的震中。我曾多次前往,试图理解选民的真实感受,亲眼目睹对特朗普的支持何其迅速地消融,实在令人震惊。过去该地区家家户户的前院、卡车车尾到处飘扬的特朗普旗帜——如今几乎已绝迹。我采访了数十位上届大选投给特朗普的选民,他们现在怒不可遏。

Jess: Jenny, you just got back from a trip to South Texas, a place where voters strongly supported Trump in 2024 — but where several congressional districts are now in play. What did you hear from voters there? Jenny: The Rio Grande Valley was kind of an epicenter of the shift you’re talking about. I’d been several times to better understand how voters were feeling, and it was truly remarkable to see just how much the support for Trump has evaporated. Trump flags used to dot front lawns and the backs of trucks all over the region — but now those have almost entirely disappeared. I spoke to dozens of voters who backed Trump during the last election and are now furious.

杰西:你写道,在你采访的选民中,“对特朗普第二任期的乐观情绪已酝酿成一种深深的被抛弃感。”你描述的是一种被背叛感。这背后是什么原因?

Jess: You wrote that, among voters you spoke to, “optimism about the second Trump administration has curdled into a deep sense of abandonment.”You’re describing a sense of betrayal. What’s behind it?

这些选民表示,他们支持特朗普连任主要基于两个原因:他们想要严厉打击边境非法移民,以及改善经济。如今,边境局势比多年来任何时候都更平静。但移民执法行动也波及了许多在美国生活和工作了几十年的人。这对当地经济造成了实实在在的冲击:许多承包商谈到整个施工队被驱逐,工人们每天早上不敢开车上路。与此同时,汽油和食品杂货价格依然居高不下。因此,这些选民觉得自己吃了哑巴亏。

These voters said they backed a second Trump presidency primarily for two reasons: They wanted a crackdown on the border and a better economy. Now, the border is quieter than it has been in years. But the immigration enforcement has also gone after many people who have lived and worked in the U.S. for decades. That has had a real impact on the local economy: Many contractors talk about entire crews that have been deported and workers who are afraid to drive every morning. And meanwhile, the cost of gas and groceries remain high. So these voters feel like they’ve gotten a raw deal.

杰西:共和党显然对此感到担忧。副总统万斯亲自前往边境,试图振奋党内基本盘。而特朗普本周在白宫举办了西班牙裔传统月庆祝活动。埃里卡,你当时在场——发生了什么?埃里卡:这位总统一如既往地以转移话题的方式间接回应这一问题,大肆赞美并抛出一个吸引眼球的“亮点”。令我印象深刻的是,他开场便宣布,这群西班牙裔支持者将成为“首批”参观他新舞厅舞池的人,随后赞扬他们“精明得要命”、“勤劳肯干”且“精力充沛——有时甚至过于充沛”。

Jess: Republicans are clearly worried about this. Vice President JD Vance went to the border himself to try to rally the party faithful. And Trump hosted a Hispanic Heritage Month celebration this week at the White House. Erica, you were there — what happened? Erica: The president, as he often does, addressed this problem indirectly with deflection, doling out compliments and dangling a shiny object. It was striking to me that he started his remarks by announcing that the group of Hispanic supporters would be “the first” to tour the floor of his new ballroom, and then went on to praise them as “smart as hell,” “hard-working” and “energetic — sometimes too energetic.”

他仅对导致这群选民背离他的问题做了隐晦的提及,并抱怨自己在移民问题上陷入了两难:要么太软弱,要么太严厉。另一个值得注意的时刻是,他拿施工现场边缘行走的危险开玩笑,说:“只有西班牙裔能摔下去还活命。”杰西:珍妮,你认为像这样的言论会被你采访的那些选民如何接收?他们有没有告诉你,他们想从特朗普那里看到或听到什么?

He made only veiled references to the issues causing the population to break from him, and complained that he was in a bind between being too soft and too harsh on immigration. The only other notable moment was when he made a joke about the danger of walking near the edge of the construction site, saying, “Only a Hispanic could survive that fall.”Jess: Jenny, how do you think comments like those might be received by the voters you spoke to? What, if anything, did they tell you they wanted to see or hear from Trump?

我采访的选民其实并不太在意特朗普具体说了什么。他们知道他会发表一些令人咋舌、冒犯部分人的言论,而这甚至正是他们欣赏他的地方之一。他们更关注的是他的政府实际做了什么。例如,他们都在一些 WhatsApp 群组里,群里经常有蒙面移民执法人员拦截上班路上人员的视频。他们希望这种情况结束。而且他们非常、非常希望看到生活成本下降。

The voters I spoke with were actually not all that interested in what Trump says, exactly. They know he can make eyebrow-raising comments that offend some people, and that’s even part of what they admire about him. What they’re far more focused on is what his administration does. They are all in WhatsApp groups, for example, where there are regularly videos of masked immigration agents stopping people on their way to work. They want to see that kind of thing end. And they really, really want to see the cost of living go down.

杰西:所以这些选民是在寻求政策改变。埃里卡,特朗普政府是否认为移民执法是个累赘?

Jess: So these voters are looking for a policy change. Erica, does the Trump administration see immigration enforcement as a liability?

白宫继续公开为其移民打压行动辩护,据报道,私下里,总统对“移民与海关执法局(ICE)会软化做法”这一观点感到恼火。他似乎非常坚信,我们正在看到的正是他当选要做的事,并对由此产生的负面影响似乎毫不在意。

The White House has continued to publicly defend its immigration crackdown, and we’ve seen reporting that, in private, the president has bristled at the idea that ICE would soften its approach. He very much seems to believe that what we’re seeing play out is what he was elected to do, and appears unfazed by the fallout.

当记者昨天问他关于拉美裔选民对其移民行动的不满时,他说:“我们必须做我们必须做的事。” 杰西:珍妮,你还在关注国内哪些其他地区?

When a reporter asked him yesterday about Latino voters’ unhappiness with his immigration actions, he said, “We have to do what we have to do.”Jess: What other parts of the country are you watching, Jenny?

在每个拥有大量拉美裔选民的州和国会选区,都存在类似的情况。我特别好奇南佛罗里达、加利福尼亚中部、亚利桑那和宾夕法尼亚会发生什么。但这种转变并不一定意味着这些选民会转而支持民主党。许多人表示他们干脆不会去投票。

There are versions of this in every state and congressional district with a large chunk of Latino voters. I’m especially curious what happens in South Florida, central California, Arizona and Pennsylvania. But this shift doesn’t necessarily mean these voters will back Democrats. Many say they simply will stay home.

竞选前线副总统万斯将于周一前往阿拉斯加费尔班克斯。共和党现任参议员丹·沙利文在那里与玛丽·佩尔托拉陷入胶着竞争。

GET On the Campaign Trail Vice President Vance is heading to Fairbanks, Alaska on Monday. Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is in a close race there against Mary Peltola.

众议院民主党竞选机构向其目标翻转席位名单中增加了八个选区,深入更多共和党腹地。新目标包括堪萨斯、德克萨斯和密歇根的选区。

House Democrats’ campaign arm added eight districts to its list of seats that it hopes to flip, venturing deeper into Republican areas. The new targets include districts in Kansas, Texas and Michigan.

点击此处查看全部 堪萨斯州前共和党州长迈克·海登背书该州民主党参议员提名人亚当·汉密尔顿。他是不到一个月内第二位背书汉密尔顿的共和党前州长。华盛顿特朗普拟任命国家情报总监杰伊·克莱顿担任新职位:人工智能沙皇 总统上月宣布设立该职位,此前外界对其政府处理人工智能事务的方式日益担忧。

See them all here Mike Hayden, a former Republican governor of Kansas, endorsed the state’s Democratic Senate nominee, Adam Hamilton He is the second Republican former governor to endorse Hamilton in less than a month. In Washington Trump is set to name Jay Clayton, the director of national intelligence, to a new position: A.I. czar The president announced the role last month as concerns grew over his administration’s handling of artificial intelligence.

尽管肯尼迪中心前景未卜,但该中心年度荣誉典礼将于今年在华盛顿第一资本球场举行 全美联邦数据显示,9月就业增长放缓,失业率升至4.2%。“劳动力市场稳定,但并未回暖,处于疲软状态,”一位经济学家告诉《纽约时报》。

While the future of the Kennedy Center remains uncertain, the center’s annual honors ceremony will be held this year at Capital One Arena in Washington Around the U.S. Job growth cooled in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent federal data shows. “The labor market is stable, but it’s not picking up. It’s soft,” one economist told The Times.

加利福尼亚州及近二十个其他州起诉特朗普政府,阻止其削弱新车和卡车燃油效率标准。据加州统计,该州已起诉联邦政府97次。

California and almost two dozen other states sued to block the Trump administration from weakening fuel efficiency rules for new cars and trucks By its count, California has now sued the administration 97 times.

佛罗里达州前共和党众议员大卫·里维拉因秘密为委内瑞拉政府游说华盛顿官员,被判处10年监禁。

David Rivera, a former Republican congressman from Florida, was sentenced to 10 years in prison for secretly lobbying officials in Washington on behalf of the Venezuelan government.

深度:特朗普纳税人资助广告 近期电视上充斥着一系列赞扬总统的广告,在橄榄球转播、有线新闻节目和《吉米·金梅尔直播秀》中播放。广告结尾附带一条不同寻常的免责声明:“由美国政府支付费用。”今日下午,《时报》报道称,特朗普本人深度参与了该广告活动及动用纳税人资金的构想。以下是我们了解到的情况。这事是怎么开始的?

Inside Trump’s taxpayer-funded ads A series of ads heaping praise on the president have been all over television lately, airing during football broadcasts, cable news programs and “Jimmy Kimmel Live!”They end with an unusual disclaimer: “Paid for by the U.S. Government.”This afternoon, The Times reported that Trump himself was heavily involved in the ad campaign and in the idea to use taxpayer money. Here’s what we learned. How did this start?

8月,特朗普在椭圆形办公室与共和党策略师会面。他的顾问们正等待他批准超级政治行动委员会为中期选举候选人提供资金支持。但特朗普对自己的视频更感兴趣。他让助手娜塔莉·哈普向这群人展示他最喜欢的一些片段。他明确表示,他的总统任期需要成为其顾问制作的广告中的核心焦点。钱从哪来?

In August, Trump met in the Oval Office with Republican strategists. His advisers were waiting on him to sign off on super PAC spending for midterm candidates. But Trump was more interested in videos of himself. He asked his assistant, Natalie Harp, to show the group some of his favorite clips. And he made clear that his presidency needed to be front and center in the commercials his advisers were making. Where did the money come from?

特朗普指示其预算局局长拉塞尔·沃特寻找资金,以便将宣传广告投放播出。9月,沃特办公室从海关和边境保护局预算中调拨2000万美元,一天后该机构与一家营销公司签署了一份2000万美元的合同。这合法吗?

Trump instructed Russell Vought, his budget director, to find the money to get the promotional spots on the air. In September, Vought’s office shifted $20 million in the Customs and Border Protection budget, and a day later that agency signed a $20 million contract with a marketing firm. Is this legal?

政府称这些广告为“公益广告”,预算办公室法律顾问马克·帕奥莱塔和白宫法律顾问威尔·沙夫均表示该计划合法。但民主党人,甚至一些共和党人,批评这些广告可能违反了联邦法律中禁止使用纳税人资金用于“宣传或宣传目的”的规定。资金竞赛中期竞选资金充裕。以下是本周引人注目的几个故事。北卡罗来纳州。

The administration calls the ads “public service announcements,” and Mark Paoletta, the budget office’s counsel, and Will Scharf, the White House counsel, both said the plan was legal. But Democrats, and even some Republicans, have criticized the spots as a possible violation of federal laws against using taxpayer dollars for “publicity or propaganda purposes.”THE MONEY RACE The midterm campaigns are awash in cash. Here are a few stories that stood out to me this week. North Carolina.

参议院共和党人的头号超级政治行动委员会正在那里取消其广告活动。与此同时,它正在堪萨斯州进行首笔投资,那里的共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔面临一场比预期更胶着的竞选。6800万美元。

That’s where Senate Republicans’ top super PAC is canceling its ad campaign At the same time, it is making its first investment in Kansas where the Republican incumbent, Roger Marshall, is in a closer-than-expected race. $68 million. That’s how much Greg Abbott, the Republican governor of Texas, has spent on advertising — while his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, has spent $8.7 million Hinojosa’s allies are calling on the party to send her more money Wednesday. That was Democrats’

这是德克萨斯州共和党州长格雷格·阿博特在广告上的支出——而他的民主党挑战者吉娜·伊诺霍萨仅花费了870万美元。伊诺霍萨的盟友呼吁党方给她提供更多资金。周三。

biggest online fund-raising day since the 2024 presidential election. ActBlue, the party’s fund-raising platform, took in $36 million. 92 percent.

那是民主党自2024年总统大选以来最大的在线筹款日。该党的筹款平台ActBlue筹集了3600万美元。92%。

Of the $26 million that Tom Tiffany, a Republican, brought in last quarter in his run for Wisconsin governor, that’s the portion that came from three wealthy donors FROM OUR While my colleague Michael Kruse was out reporting on a politician locked in a close race, he snapped this photo of her distinctive footwear. Whose boots are those?

汤姆·蒂芙尼是一名共和党人,在竞选威斯康星州州长的过程中,上个季度筹集了2600万美元,其中这部分来自三位富有的捐赠者(来自我们当我的同事迈克尔·克鲁斯外出报道一位陷入胶着竞争的政治家时,他拍下了这张她独特鞋履的照片。这些靴子是谁的?艾米·阿克顿,竞选俄亥俄州州长阿什利·欣森,竞选爱荷华州参议员玛丽·格鲁森坎普·佩雷斯,竞选华盛顿州众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉,竞选阿拉斯加州参议员苏珊·柯林斯,竞选缅因州参议员点击一个答案,我们将带您阅读迈克尔对该候选人的专访,这样您就能知道自己猜没猜对。我们已将该链接设为免费。

Amy Acton, running for governor of Ohio Ashley Hinson, running for Senate in Iowa Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, running for the House in Washington Mary Peltola, running for Senate in Alaska Susan Collins, running for Senate in Maine Click an answer and we’ll take you to Michael’s profile of the candidate, so you can see if you’re right. We’ve made the link free