众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（R-路易斯安那州）需要拉美裔选民像2024年那样继续支持共和党。但新民调显示，他们正以多年未见的程度回流至民主党。
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) needs Latino voters to stick with Republicans as they did in 2024. But new polling shows they're drifting back toward Democrats at levels not seen in years.
为何重要：拉美裔选民对特朗普总统的不满已成为其第二任期的基调。民主党希望借此复制2018年特朗普首次中期选举时的滑坡式胜利。
Why it matters: Latino voters souring on President Trump has been part of the mood music of the president's second term. Democrats hope this helps them replicate the landslide from Trump's first midterm in 2018.
全景概览：根据Equis Research的最新民调，在国会普选投票中，民主党对共和党的领先优势达到全年最高，达57%对31%。
The big picture: Democrats have their widest lead of the year against Republicans, 57% to 31%, on the generic congressional ballot, according to new polling from Equis Research.
- 在摇摆选区，民主党在两党对决中领先拉美裔可能选民62%对38%，高于该党2022年的57%。
• In battleground districts, Democrats lead 62%–38% among likely Latino voters in two-way races, ahead of the party's 2022 level of 57%.
- 根据拉美裔投票行为权威机构Equis的数据，这一比例高于2024年支持民主党的拉美裔选民比例（49%），但低于2018年支持民主党的比例（67%）。
• That's well above the 49% of Latinos who voted Democratic in 2024, but below the 67% who backed Democrats in 2018, according to Equis, a leading authority on Latino voting behavior. Zoom in:
聚焦细节：共和党曾相信特朗普在2024年不可否认的支持增长标志着真正政治重新对齐的开始，但今年接连的民调显示，拉美裔选民尚未在共和党中找到永久归属。
Republicans were convinced that Trump's undeniable gains in 2024 represented the beginnings of a real realignment, but poll after poll this year has indicated that Latino voters haven't found a permanent home in the GOP.
- 佛罗里达州共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔在一则竞选广告中直接点名特朗普，就其移民强硬政策发表看法。
• In Florida, GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar has addressed Trump directly in a campaign ad about his immigration crackdown.
- Equis于9月23日至10月2日进行的调查提供了特朗普在拉美裔选民中支持率下降的新证据。
• The Equis survey, conducted Sept. 23–Oct. 2, provides fresh evidence of Trump's declining support among Latino voters.
- 特朗普的支持率仅为30%，而不支持率达65%，相差35个百分点——这是Equis调查中的新低。
• Trump's approval rating stands at just 30%, compared with 65% disapproval. That's a 35-point deficit — and a new low in Equis surveys.
深层原因：经济担忧——尤其是油价上涨——是不满情绪的主要驱动力，特别是生活成本问题。
Between the lines: Economic concerns — and rising gas prices — are driving much of the dissatisfaction, particularly the cost of living.
- 76%的拉美裔选民不赞同特朗普处理生活成本问题的方式，而52%的人将此视为他们最关心的议题。
• 76% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living, which 52% identify as their top issue.
- 54%的拉美裔选民更信任民主党处理经济问题，而只有33%更信任共和党。
• 54% trust Democrats more on the economy, compared with 33% who trust Republicans.
- 这使民主党在经济问题上的领先优势达到21个百分点，较2月份的7个百分点显著上升。
• That gives Democrats a 21-point advantage on the economy, up from just 7 points in February. The bottom line:
结论：拉美裔选民帮助特朗普重返白宫。Equis调查是最新迹象，表明他们可能帮助民主党夺回国会。
Latino voters helped put Trump back in the White House. The Equis survey is the latest indication they could help Democrats take back Congress.