
共和党正努力在移民问题上寻找平衡点,以应对预计将异常激烈的中期选举季,许多选民已对特朗普政府的强硬执法政策感到反感。但该党过去两年一直拥护源于特朗普总统以“保卫”边境为竞选纲领的政策,其中包括承诺实施历史上最大规模的大规模驱逐行动。参议员吉姆·贾斯蒂斯(R-西弗吉尼亚州)前后两份连续发布的声明生动地说明了这一困境。
Republicans are struggling with how to thread the needle on immigration ahead of what is expected to be a bruising midterm season in which many voters have soured on the Trump administration’s aggressive enforcement. But the party has spent two years championing policies that resulted from President Trump running on “securing” the border, including a pledge to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in history. Two back-to-back statements from Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) illustrate the problem.
周二,这位议员在接受《政治报》采访时表示,移民执法人员一直在“把在你街角住了15年的人拖走”。“我不知道我们是否需要做那些事,”他对该媒体说。“要变得更好,第一件事就是承认你在做错事,”他补充道,暗示需要“退一步”。但第二天,他收回了这些言论。“让我明确表态:我全力支持特朗普总统的移民战略,毫无保留,”他在社交平台X上写道。
In an interview with Politico on Tuesday, the lawmaker said immigration officers have been “dragging people away that have lived on your street corner for 15 years.”“I don’t know that we need to be doing that stuff,” he told the outlet. “To get better, the first thing you got to do is admit you’re doing something wrong,” he added, nodding to the need to “step back.”But the next day, he walked the comments back. “Let me be crystal clear: I support President Trump’s immigration strategy, full stop,” he wrote on the social platform X. Trump has also acknowledged the issue.
特朗普也承认了这一问题。“坦白说,这是我遇到过最难的工作,”特朗普周三在白宫举行的西班牙裔传统月活动上表示。“他们会说你太强硬,或太软弱。再强硬点,再软弱点。无论你做什么,总是很难办。”这位总统的言论之际,周四发布的美联社-NORC民调显示,特朗普在移民问题上的支持率为39%,而近期《政治报》的民调则发现共和党内部对特朗普在该问题上的评价存在分歧。
“Frankly, it’s the hardest job that I’ve had,” Trump said during a Hispanic Heritage Month event at the White House on Wednesday. “They’ll say you’re too tough or you’re too soft. Get tougher, get softer. No matter what you do, it’s always tough.”The president’s comments come as a Thursday AP-NORC poll found Trump had a 39 percent approval rating on immigration, while recent Politico polling found divides in how the GOP rated Trump on the issue.
31%的非“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)认同者表示,特朗普的驱逐行动过于激进。共和党在西班牙裔选民群体中也面临困境,该群体在2024年助推了特朗普和共和党。随着共和党着眼于在11月保持对国会的控制权,德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民中出现的不满迹象尤为明显。
Thirty-one percent of those polled who did not identify as MAGA said Trump’s deportation campaign is too aggressive. Republicans are also struggling with the Hispanic voting bloc, which boosted Trump and the GOP in 2024. Signs of disapproval among Hispanic and Latino voters are particularly noticeable in Texas and Florida, as the GOP looks to keep control of Congress in November.
根据 UnidosUS 今年春季的一项调查,2024 年支持特朗普的佛罗里达州西班牙裔选民中有 20% 表示不会再次投票给他。与此同时,库克政治报告和 TelevisaUnivision 9 月的一项民调发现,18% 投票给特朗普的德克萨斯州拉丁裔选民表示不再支持他。
Twenty percent of Hispanic voters in Florida who supported Trump in 2024 said they would not repeat their vote, according to a UnidosUS survey from this spring. Meanwhile, a September Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision poll found that 18 percent of Texan Latinos who voted for Trump said they no longer back him.
几位保守派人士对影响表示抱怨。缅因州前共和党州长保罗·勒佩奇(Paul LePage)现正竞选国会议员,他曾吹嘘自己是“特朗普流行之前的唐纳德·特朗普”。但他最近透露,他儿子的岳父(他称该人士合法居住在美国)正“因来自某些华盛顿人不喜欢的国家而被驱逐出境。这不对劲。”然而,勒佩奇在言论引发头条新闻后,基本拒绝回答更多问题,本周早些时候称这是“私人事务”。
Several conservative voices have grumbled about impacts. Paul LePage, a former Republican governor of Maine who is now running for Congress, has bragged about being "Donald Trump before Donald Trump became popular." But he revealed recently that his son’s father-in-law, who he has said was living in the U.S. legally, was “being deported because he came from a country that’s not liked by certain people in Washington. That’s not right.”LePage, however, has largely refused to answer additional questions after his comments garnered headlines, saying earlier this week it was a “personal matter.”
在佛罗里达州,共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉查(Maria Elvira Salazar)发现,她的选区拥有全美最大的外国出生人口群体之一,选民对特朗普的移民政策极度失望,以至于她以此为竞选议题。“总统先生,您的一些移民执法行动已走得太远,”萨拉查在 9 月的一则广告中说。广告中,她站在白宫前,对着特朗普发言。
In Florida, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R) saw that her district, which has one of the largest foreign-born populations of any in the country, was so disenchanted with Trump’s immigration policies that she campaigned on it. “Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” Salazar said in a September ad. In the ad, she stands in front of the White House, addressing Trump.
她的言论遭到一些反对,包括来自选民和特朗普本人的反对,特朗普在广告播出后在社交媒体上发布了十几条帖子批评这位女众议员。边境事务沙皇汤姆·霍曼也驳回了萨拉查的观点。“举个我们走得太远的例子。这是个相当大胆的说法,”霍曼在最近接受 CBS 新闻采访时表示。
She faced some pushback for her comments, including from constituents and Trump himself, who criticized the congresswoman in a dozen social media posts after the ad aired. Border czar Tom Homan also dismissed Salazar’s take. “Give me an example where we went too far. That's a pretty bold statement to make,” Homan told CBS News in a recent interview.
堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)也是特朗普移民政策的积极支持者,在美国移民及海关执法局(ICE)官员在其家乡州开展执法行动后,他提出了温和的批评,称他们没有与警方进行充分协调。
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R), also a vocal proponent of Trump’s immigration policies, offered tepid criticism after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers conducted enforcement operations in his home state, saying they did not sufficiently coordinate with police.
“执法人员未获得事先通知,也未得到我们预期的那种来自ICE执法和驱逐行动的配合程度,”他在上个月底的一份声明中说。“结果导致当地社区和企业遭受大规模干扰。”
“Law enforcement officers were not given advance notice or the level of cooperation we would expect from ICE’s enforcement and removal operations. As a result, there have been mass disruptions to local communities and businesses,” he said in a statement late last month.
ICE已做出改变,以改善其移民执法的公众形象,不再搞提前在社交媒体上宣传的激进突袭。但许多战术依然如故。ICE官员驾驶无标识车辆、身着便服执法——这些细节导致一些移民在困惑中逃离。
ICE has made changes to shift the optics around their immigration enforcement, moving away from aggressive raids that were advertised in advance on social media. But many of the tactics remain the same. ICE officers are operating in unmarked cars and donning plainclothes — details that have prompted some migrants to flee amid confusion.
然而,逮捕人数仍在上升,且越来越多地针对那些没有犯罪记录、甚至有移民申请正在审理中的人。ICE在7月和8月各逮捕了约5万名移民——创历史新高。
Arrests, however, are still ticking up and are increasingly likely to be carried out against those who have no criminal record and who even have immigration petitions in processing. ICE arrested about 50,000 migrants in both July and August — record-breaking figures.
同时,《国会山报》获得的司法部内部数据显示,移民诉讼办公室处理的案件激增,自特朗普第二任期开始以来,案件从约7700宗跃升至近9500宗。其中许多是目前被关押在移民拘留中心的近7万人提交的人身保护令请愿。
Meanwhile, internal Justice Department data obtained by The Hill shows cases handled by the Office of Immigration Litigation have soared, with cases jumping from roughly 7,700 to nearly 9,500 since the start of Trump's second term. Many of those are habeas petitions from the nearly 70,000 people currently held in immigration detention.
其他共和党参议员表示,现在ICE行动更低调了,他们从选民那里听到的关于ICE的抱怨变少了。“总的来说,人们希望看到犯下暴力罪行、本不该留在这里、处于被驱逐状态的人……被带出国外,”参议员谢莉·摩尔·卡皮托(共和党,西弗吉尼亚州)说。“执法方式受到审视,某些事件导致了非常悲惨的结果,显然,已经发生了几起死亡案件。”“我觉得ICE的行动平息了,他们加强了培训。”参议员。
Other Republican senators said they’re hearing less from constituents about ICE now that the operations are quieter. “Generally speaking, people want to see folks that commit violent crimes and, you know, removed from that aren't supposed to be here, under deportation, be … taken out of the country,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). “There's been scrutiny on methods, and certain incidences have had some very sad results, obviously, with a couple deaths.”“I feel like it's calmed down in terms of what ICE is doing, and they've upped their training.”
詹姆斯·兰克福德(俄克拉荷马州共和党参议员)表示,他听到的关于ICE(美国移民与海关执法局)的担忧也变少了,尽管俄克拉荷马州养牛人协会上周联合堪萨斯州和德克萨斯州的行业团体发了一封信,描述近期突击搜捕行动对行业造成的干扰。
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said he had also heard fewer concerns about ICE, although the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association joined trade groups in Kansas and Texas in a letter last week describing the disruption recent raids have had on the industry.
兰克福德说,向他反映的投诉“比我过去听到的要少”。“但是的,我是说,我们一直都能听到这种声音。”
Lankford said the complaints that come to him are “fewer than I used to hear about that.”“But yes, I mean, we've always heard that.”
然而,民主党人认为,鉴于今年发生几起致命枪击案后,特朗普的移民执法和驱逐行动不得人心,共和党人将在选举日遭受损失。
Democrats, however, believe Republicans will suffer on Election Day given the unpopularity of Trump’s immigration enforcement and deportations after several fatal shootings this year.
“他们不再追捕‘最坏中的最坏’——他们自己表现得像‘最坏中的最坏’,”众议院司法委员会首席民主党人、马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金在最近一次关于特朗普移民政策的听证会上表示。
“They’re no longer going after ‘the worst of the worst’ — they are acting like the worst of the worst,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (Md.), the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, said during a recent hearing on Trump immigration efforts.
“特朗普的民调数字像石头一样下沉,大多数美国人已经拒绝了他们的威权警察国家手段。”
“Trump’s poll numbers have sunk like a stone, and the majority of Americans have rejected their authoritarian police-state tactics.”
众议院司法委员会移民小组委员会首席民主党人、华盛顿州众议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔表示,特朗普政府专注于完成逮捕指标的做法适得其反。
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, said the Trump administration's focus on meeting arrest quotas has backfired.
“他们现在在悄悄延续这一策略,因为高调行动时不得人心,”她在上月创纪录的逮捕数字公布后告诉《国会山报》。“但他们将在11月发现,悄悄进行同样不得人心。”
“They are continuing this strategy quietly now because it was unpopular when it was loud,” she told The Hill last month after the release of record-setting arrest figures. “But they’re going to find out in November that it’s unpopular when it’s quiet as well.”