
八年前,共和党候选人为了在2018年10月的中期选举中避免惨败而苦苦挣扎,他们把一群混杂的中美洲人当作潜在的救命稻草。随着所谓的“移民大篷车”向北推进,共和党的恐吓言论充斥着电视广播。就在周一,我还确信共和党人不会重蹈覆辙——即便在当时,这显然也是绝望之举,尤其是在2026年截然不同的政治气候下。我很快就被证明错了。
Eight years ago, Republican candidates flailing to avoid a midterms wipeout in October 2018 seized on a ragtag group of Central Americans as a potential lifeline. GOP fearmongering filled the airwaves as the so-called migrant caravan made its way north. As recently as Monday, I was confident Republicans would not repeat what even then was clearly a desperate play, especially in 2026’s far different political climate. How quickly I was proven wrong.
过去几天里,总统唐纳德·特朗普、共和党候选人和右翼评论员都盯上了法国骚乱和混乱的画面,再次使用白人民族主义的论调来煽动恐慌,声称欧洲的动荡是民主党掌控国会后美国未来的预演。这是一个被历史上不受欢迎的总统、飞涨的燃油价格、令人不安的经济数据所束缚的政党——除此之外几乎没有什么可以拿来竞选。这同时也是一场赌博:赌的是种族主义言论对相当一部分共和党选民来说,可能比特朗普给他们带来的经济痛苦更能起到动员作用。
In the past few days, President Donald Trump, Republican candidates and right-wing commentators have all latched onto images of riots and chaos in France, and are once again using white nationalist talking points to stir panic, claiming that the unrest in Europe is a preview of America’s future under a Democratic congressional majority. This is a party that’s hamstrung by a historically unpopular president, sky-high fuel prices, troubling economic data points — and little else to run on. It’s also a bet that racist rhetoric could be a better motivator for a good portion of the GOP electorate than the economic pain that Trump has unleashed upon them.
我们没有足够的空间去深入分析自上周以来席卷法国的抗议活动的真正动机和背后的复杂动态。简而言之,学生们因生活成本上升以及学校教育质量下降而发起的抗议活动,逐渐演变成了持续数天的骚乱和抢劫行为。不过,在特朗普将于周一在堪萨斯州举行的集会之前,《卫报》报道称:“巨大的电视屏幕上播放了大约10分钟的福克斯新闻关于巴黎及其他城市骚乱的报道,其中评论将这些事件归咎于法国的移民政策。”
We don’t have room to dive into the actual motivations and dynamics at work in the protests that have overwhelmed France since last week. (The short version is that student protests over rising living costs and deteriorating schools spiraled into days of riots and looting.) But ahead of a Monday rally featuring Trump in Kansas, The Guardian reported, “giant TV screens played about 10 minutes of Fox News coverage of the unrest that has gripped Paris and other cities, which included commentary blaming the trouble on the French government’s immigration policies.”
特朗普对热情的堪萨斯州民众说:“如果你想了解这次选举的实质,就看看法国正在发生的事情吧!”他还声称法国已经“被移民、圣战分子和共产主义者征服、洗劫一空”。
“If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what’s happening in France,” the president told the friendly crowd of Kansans, adding that the country has been “conquered, looted and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists and communists.”
特朗普这种恶毒的言论并不新鲜;至少在某种程度上,这符合共和党将所有民主党人贴上“共产主义者”标签的总体立场。但在网络上,更多人发表了更为极端的声音。例如,国土安全部顾问斯蒂芬·米勒声称:“民主党的议程就是对我们的文明进行大规模的掠夺和破坏。”白宫本身也在社交媒体上发布了类似“‘引进第三世界的人口,最终就会变成第三世界国家’”这样的警告性言论。
Trump went on to blame “globalist left-wing politicians” who “have treasonously imported millions and millions of third-world migrants who are totally incompatible with the West” for France’s plight. The ugly rhetoric is nothing new for Trump, and at least partially fits in with the broader Republican focus on labeling all Democrats as communists. But online, things got even darker from a much broader array of figures, including Homeland Security adviser Stephen Miller claiming the “Democrat agenda is the mass looting and pillaging of our civilization.”

特朗普本人早在2024年4月就在社交媒体上使用过这个口号,白宫随后也在该平台上分享了相关内容。他的竞选团队也在2024年的社交媒体活动中使用了这一口号,并配上了黑人及棕色皮肤人群的图片以及阳光明媚的郊区住宅照片。与过去一年里美国政府采用的许多言论和口号一样,这个口号其实起源于白人至上主义思潮——它最初是从欧洲极右翼势力那里传入的。具有讽刺意味的是,这个口号本身其实源自国外。
The White House itself was among the X accounts posting variations of the ominous phrase “import the third world, become the third world” on Monday. Trump himself used the phrase in a Truth Social post in April, which the White House shared on X. His campaign also posted it on X in 2024, using a photo of Black and brown men in contrast with a picture of sunny suburban home. As with many of the themes and phrases the administration has adopted over the past year, this one has white nationalist origins. Ironically, the slogan itself is foreign-born, having been imported from Europe’s far right.
《在这些时代》记录了宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特的一个早期例子:2017年11月的一次集会上,一小群抗议者在标语牌上展示了这句口号。少数举着提基火炬的白人至上主义者还高喊“你们不会取代我们”,这句口号当年早些时候也曾在弗吉尼亚大学校园里回响,那是在一名白人民族主义者于夏洛茨维尔驾车撞倒一名反抗议者的前一天晚上。
In These Times documented an early example in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, where a small group of protesters displayed the slogan on a sign during a rally in November 2017. The handful of tiki torch-bearing white supremacists also chanted “you will not replace us,” the same phrase echoed on the University of Virginia’s campus earlier that year, the night before a white nationalist ran over a counterprotester in Charlottesville. (Trump infamously insisted there were “very fine people” on both sides of that incident, though his supporters continue to cling to the fiction that the resulting controversy was a “hoax.”)
(特朗普曾臭名昭著地坚称那起事件双方都有“非常优秀的人”,尽管他的支持者至今仍执迷于一种虚构说法,称由此引发的争议是一场“骗局”。)一个名为“身份欧罗巴”的组织声称对宾夕法尼亚州的那条横幅以及许多其他横幅负责。反诽谤联盟在一份关于充斥仇恨言论的横幅使用增多的报告中表示,这些口号是“该组织真实目标的净化版本,即维护‘美国白人身份’,并宣扬美国是由白人为白人建立的理念,并非要成为一个多种族或多文化的社会”。
A group called Identity Evropa took credit for that banner in Pennsylvania and many others. The Anti-Defamation League said in a report on the increased use of hate speech-laden banners that the slogans were “a sanitized version of the group’s true aim, the preservation of ‘white American identity’ and the promulgation of the idea that America was founded by white people for white people and was not intended to be a multiracial or multicultural society.”
“输入第三世界,变成第三世界”这句话被白宫如此彻底地采纳并洗白,令人沮丧地标志着本届政府的信念所在。
For the phrase “import the third world, become the third world” to have been adopted and laundered so thoroughly by the White House is a depressing marker for where this administration’s beliefs lie.
共和党向极端民族主义的狼狈转向在2018年至少还稍微说得通一些。当时《政治报》报道称,特朗普的团队得出结论,在2016年选情激烈的选区,“边境保护、捍卫移民执法人员以及坚决打击非法移民引起了选民的共鸣”。路透社/益普索当年9月的一项民调显示,42%的美国人认可总统的移民政策。同样,民主党策略师当时担心,即便是像家庭分离这样“最严苛的共和党[移民]政策”,也未能让特朗普2016年赢下的各州选民失去支持。
The GOP’s sweaty lurch to ultranationalism made at least slightly more sense in 2018. Politico, at the time, reported that Trump’s team had concluded that “border protection, safeguarding immigration officers and standing up to illegal immigration resonated with voters” in districts that were competitive in 2016. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from that September showed 42% of Americans approved of the president’s immigration policies. Likewise, Democratic strategists worried that “even the most draconian of Republican [immigration] policies” like family separation failed to turn off voters in states Trump won in 2016.
这一推动对遏制共和党的失利作用,不如2014年中期选举前将埃博拉疫情政治化的类似尝试那么大,但它仍主导了大选前的最后一个月,让民主党措手不及。在经历了一年的反移民突袭和大规模驱逐之后,情况已有不同。本周发布的路透社/益普索民调显示,只有36%的美国人赞同特朗普的移民政策。皮尤研究中心今年早些时候的调查同样发现,52%的美国人认为特朗普在驱逐移民问题上“做得太过”。
The push did less to blunt the GOP’s losses than a similar bid to politicize an Ebola outbreak ahead of the 2014 midterms, but it still dominated the final month before the election and left Democrats off-balance. In the aftermath of a year of anti-immigrant raids and mass deportations, the story is different. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from this week found only 36% of Americans approved of Trump’s immigration policies. Pew Research similarly found earlier this year that 52% of Americans think Trump is doing “too much” to deport immigrants.
考虑到这一点,选择在法国问题上强硬表态令人费解,尤其是当你考虑到在许多共和党原本指望翻盘的摇摆选区,大力推行反移民立场很可能会适得其反。但正如我的同事向我指出的,这很可能是为了在动力不足的共和党基本盘中激起愤怒。助长所谓“红色暗流效应”的冷漠情绪,让民主党得以在两年前特朗普以两位数优势获胜的选区发起攻势。
With that in mind, the choice to go hard on France seems confounding, especially when you consider that going heavy on anti-immigration would likely backfire in many of the swing districts that Republicans would normally be hoping to flip. But as my colleague pointed out to me, this is likely a play to rile up the GOP’s base where motivation has been lacking. The apathy fueling the so-called red undertow effect has allowed Democrats to make plays for districts that just two years ago went for Trump by double digits.
或许希望借此让那些因特朗普造成的经济困境而原本打算留在家中抗议的保守派,更倾向于走出家门去投票站。但无论出于何种理由,从白宫和其他保守派人士口中喷薄而出的陈旧白人民族主义言论令人作呕。我原以为共和党在如此绝望的时刻不会堕落到这种地步——这是我的错。
Maybe the hope is to make conservatives who were likely to stay home in protest over the economic hardship Trump has caused more inclined to head to the ballot box. But whatever the reasoning, the recycled white nationalist rhetoric spewing out from the White House and other conservative figures is disgusting. I had thought that the GOP wouldn’t stoop so low during this time of desperation — and that’s on me.