面对激烈的参议院竞选，特朗普和共和党领袖将法国的动荡描绘为民主党执政下美国未来的警示。
With Republicans facing tight Senate races, Trump and party leaders are casting France’s unrest as a warning for what the future looks like under Democrats.
作者：Alex Gangitano、Scott Waldman 共和党人想要为竞选活动注入一剂强心针。他们在法国找到了它。
By Alex Gangitano, Scott Waldman Republicans wanted a jolt for their campaigns. They found it in France.
在竞选的最后冲刺阶段，唐纳德·特朗普总统、JD·万斯副总统、迈克·约翰逊议长、共和党候选人及其支持者正利用巴黎的暴力事件，警告美国在民主党控制下将变成什么样子。
In the campaign’s final stretch, President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican candidates and their boosters are using the violence in Paris to warn what America will look like under Democratic control.
特朗普周二表示，他将从竞选资金中拿出“超过4亿美元”帮助共和党，“尤其是在目睹了法国正在发生的事情，以及欧洲其他地方的情况之后。”
Trump on Tuesday said he would spend over “400 million dollars” from his war chest to help Republicans “especially after witnessing what is taking place in France, and other locations throughout Europe.”
“法国正在发生的事情，他们想让它发生在我们国家，”特朗普周一晚在堪萨斯州说。“民主党是反西方马克思主义者和敌对第三世界移民的政党。” 将巴黎的局势推到美国人面前的努力，正值共和党难以弥合一个持续存在的热情差距之际，这种差距甚至存在于红州，并威胁要让共和党失去对国会的控制权。民调显示，在特朗普两年前赢下的多个州，参议院竞争十分胶着，包括堪萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州，万斯周一曾前往那里助选。一些国会高层共和党人已私下得出结论，他们极有可能无法保住对众议院的控制权。
“What's happening to France, they want to happen to our country,” Trump said in Kansas on Monday night. “Democrats are the party of anti-western marxists and hostile third world migrants.”The effort to push Paris in front of Americans comes as Republicans struggle to close an enthusiasm gap that persists even in red states and threatens to sweep the GOP from control of Congress. Polls show tight Senate races in multiple states that Trump won two years ago, including Kansas and North Carolina where Vance campaigned on Monday. And some top congressional Republicans have privately concluded that it is likely impossible for them to keep control of the House.
特朗普及其政党面临的挑战，在于如何在共和党拥有注册选民优势的红州动员共和党选民。数月来，共和党一直在批评密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和得克萨斯州参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科等民主党人，指责他们持有所谓“激进”、反美的观点。共和党还攻击美国民主社会主义者组织，称其密谋将美国变成一个“共产主义国家”。法国骚乱之所以与众不同，是因为它提供了多天的最新画面，共和党暗示如果民主党得逞，这场风暴将吹过大西洋。
The challenge for Trump and his party is turning out Republicans in the red states where they have a registration advantage. For months, Republicans have criticized Democrats such as Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Texas Senate candidate James Talarico for their allegedly “radical,” anti-American views. And Republicans also attacked the Democratic Socialists of America as scheming to turn the United States into a “communist nation.”What sets the riots in France apart is that it offers multiple days of fresh visuals that Republicans are suggesting is a storm ready to blow across the Atlantic if Democrats get their way.
“虽然共和党也面临自身的挑战，但民主党被美国民主社会主义者组织‘俘获’，使他们暴露在这种攻击之下，”前全国共和党参议员委员会执行主任、S2R 公共与政治事务咨询公司合伙人杰森·希尔曼表示。“特别是当你看看这些红墙州的摇摆选民是谁时——他们倾向于支持我们，想要支持我们，但只需要一点点推动力。”法国的动荡始于几周前，学生抗议学校条件差和拥挤。抗议者随后号召全国示威，反对高昂的能源成本和不断上涨的通胀，引发了与警方的暴力冲突、抢劫和焚烧建筑。
“While Republicans have their challenges, the capture of the Democrat Party by the DSA leaves them exposed to this sort of attack,” Jason Thielman, former executive director of the NRSC and partner at Public and political Affairs consulting firm S2R. “Especially when you look at who the undecided voters are in these red wall states — they're folks who lean toward us and want to fall for us, but they need just a little bit of a nudge.”The unrest in France started weeks ago with student protests against poor conditions and overcrowding in schools. Protesters then called for national demonstrations against high energy costs and rising inflation, fueling violent clashes with police, looting and burning buildings.
据六位接受《政治客》采访的共和党人透露，将这种无政府状态与民主党政策联系起来，将成为共和党收官信息的重点。
Connecting that anarchy to Democratic policies will be a focus of the GOP’s closing message, according to six Republicans who spoke to POLITICO.
特朗普早早就抓住抗议活动作为政治谈资，到目前为止，信息传递保持了高度一致。特朗普和其他共和党领军人物还试图将法国的暴力事件与帮助他们在 2024 年获胜的反移民情绪联系起来，指责抗议活动是由外部煽动者引起的，并怪罪左派拥护的开放边境政策让这些人过于轻易地进入该国。
Trump jumped on the protests early as a political talking point and, so far, there’s been remarkable message discipline. Trump and other leading GOP figures are also attempting to tie the violence in France to the anti-immigrant sentiments that helped propel them to victory in 2024, blaming the protests on outside agitators too easily allowed into the country by an open border policy that the left embraces.
万斯周一在北卡罗来纳州的一次集会上表示，抗议活动“就是当你引进不认同国家文化的人时会发生的事”。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊将这场“混乱”归咎于法国的开放边境政策，呼应了特朗普的攻击路线。“我们目睹的是对所有美国人的一个令人毛骨悚然的警告，警示如果激进的马克思主义叛乱左派得逞会发生什么，”他在共和党全国委员会（RNC）网站上写道。
Vance, at a rally in North Carolina on Monday, said the protests are “what happens when you bring in people who don't share the culture of the country.”Speaker Mike Johnson blamed the “chaos” on France’s open borders, picking up on a Trump attack line. “What we are witnessing is a chilling warning for all Americans of what happens if the radical Marxist insurgent left gets their way,” he wrote on The Republican National Committee had a strikingly similar message pointing to France as an example of what goes wrong when immigration is left unchecked.
共和党全国委员会发布了极其相似的信息，指向法国作为移民失控后果的例证。特朗普承诺封锁边境并驱逐无证移民，是其2024年竞选的支柱之一，并助推他重返白宫。
Trump’s promise to seal the border and deport undocumented immigrants was a pillar of his 2024 campaign and helped propel him to the White House.
共和党全国委员会全国新闻秘书娜塔莉·巴尔达萨雷表示：“法国发生的事提醒我们，当未经审查、拒绝同化且仇视接纳国的移民被输入一个国家时，那个国家将陷入暴力混乱。民主党正在推行导致法国走到这一步的同样失败政策，而共和党人正在每天为保卫边境、执行法律和捍卫美国生活方式而战。”一些民主党人持怀疑态度，认为这不过是共和党人扔向墙上、看能不能粘住的最新一堆“意大利面条”，因为民调显示他们在许多原本以为会赢的选战中落后。
“What's happening in France serves as a reminder that when unvetted migrants who refuse to assimilate are imported into a country they hate, that country will fall into violent chaos,” said RNC National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre. “Democrats are pushing the same failed policies that led France to this point, and Republicans are fighting every day to secure our borders, enforce the law and protect the American way of life.”Some Democrats are skeptical that this will amount to anything more than the latest spaghetti Republicans are throwing against the wall as polls show them trailing in many races they once thought they’d win.
特朗普本人已提出如果获胜就给每个美国人5000美元，警告民主党想给未成年人做变性手术，将高油价归咎于乌克兰，并称物价负担能力问题是民主党的骗局，因为前总统乔·拜登任内通胀持续不退。
Trump, for his part, has already offered $5,000 to every American if they win, warned Democrats want transgender surgery for minors, blamed high gas prices on Ukraine and called affordability a Democratic hoax because of the persistent inflation under former President Joe Biden.
哈佛大学民调专家、曾任拜登2020年竞选顾问的约翰·德拉·沃尔佩表示，法国燃烧的画面不太可能引起美国选民共鸣，他们主要关心生活成本和政府腐败。
The images of France burning are unlikely to resonate with American voters, who are mostly concerned with the cost of living and corruption in government, said John Della Volpe, a Harvard University pollster who was an adviser on Biden’s 2020 campaign.
“这不是关于说服，”他说，“而是关于动员‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）基本盘。”这或许正是重点——尤其是在最近投票选出共和党人担任全州性职务的州份。
“This is not about persuasion,” he said. “It's about mobilization of the MAGA base.”That might be the point – especially in states that have recently voted Republicans to statewide office.
在北卡罗来纳州，特朗普周二在此造势，该州共和党主席、2020年特朗普胜选竞选团队地区政治总监杰森·西蒙斯指责民主党试图在拜登领导下制造类似法国的环境。
In North Carolina, where Trump campaigned on Tuesday, Jason Simmons, chairman of the state’s Republican party and the 2020 regional political director for Trump Victory, argued Democrats tried to create an environment like France under Biden.
“法国应当给所有美国人敲响警钟，”西蒙斯说。“在美国可能发生什么，尤其是当你有一些黑暗的左翼团体愿意煽风点火，并允许这些人获得资金支持时。”
“France should serve as a wakeup call for all Americans,” Simmons said. “What can happen here in America, especially when you have some dark, left-wing groups who are willing to stoke those flames and allow these individuals to be funded.”
白宫放大了这些警告，在社交媒体上发布暴力图片，配文称：“这是民主党想要给美国的未来——这是我们正在努力阻止的。”白宫X账号分享了《纽约邮报》关于法国的 报道，并补充道：“如果你想看看什么处于险境之中，请看法国。未来不必长成这样。”
The White House has amplified the warnings, posting violent images on social media, captioned with, “This is the future Democrats want for America - this is what we're fighting to prevent.”The White House X account shared a New York Post cover story on France and added: “If you want to see what's at stake, look at France. The future doesn't have to look like this.”
“特朗普总统说得没错：法国的骚乱是其领导人开放边境政策的直接结果。如果激进民主党得逞，这在美国也会发生，”白宫发言人劳伦·比斯说。“他们是开放边境、大赦、无法无天和混乱的政党，而特朗普总统和共和党人是常识与法治秩序的政党。”白宫贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗在接受《政治报》（POLITICO）采访时表示，法国的暴力事件是民主党社会主义者推行的那种宽松移民政策导致的。
“President Trump is right: the riots in France are a direct result of their leader’s open border policies. This is what will happen in America if radical Democrats have their way,” said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis. “They are the party of open borders, amnesty, lawlessness, and chaos while President Trump and Republicans are the party of commonsense and law and order.”Peter Navarro, a White House trade advisor, said in an interview with POLITICO that the violence in France is the result of the sort of lax immigration policies pushed by Democratic Socialists.
“这是一个警告信号，”他说。“在一个民主国家，当你迎来大量移民，而他们凭借在投票箱前的数量优势获得选票权力时，他们就会接管政权。”周一，佛罗里达州共和党众议员兰迪·法恩——他所在的选区是稳固的红区——正与共和党州长候选人、众议员拜伦·唐纳兹一起举行集会，他告诉人群，他们在大巴上一起观看了福克斯新闻对抗议活动的报道。
“It's the warning shot,” he said. “In a democracy when you get a flood of immigrants and they gain the power of the ballot box in superior numbers, then they take over.”On Monday, Florida GOP Rep. Randy Fine — who's in a safe red district — was rallying with GOP gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds and told the crowd that they’d been watching Fox News coverage of the protests together on the bus.
“他们绝大部分不是和平的，他们肯定不是学生，也不是抗议者。别搞错：如果我们不站起来采取行动，这种情况会蔓延到美国，也会蔓延到佛罗里达州，”法恩说。
“They are not mostly peaceful, they sure as hell aren't students, and they're not protestors. And make no mistake: That will come to America, and that will come to Florida if we don't stand up and do something about it,” Fine said.
一位共和党捐赠者在获准匿名发表坦率言论的情况下表示，特朗普和共和党人正在精准利用国际新闻。
One GOP donor, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Trump and Republicans are playing the international news exactly right.
“几年前的‘黑人的命也是命’抗议活动，再加上大学校园里发生的那些事——将这些全部串联起来，将向人们发出强有力的信号，即我们需要制止这种正在兴起的反美、反西方情绪，”这位人士说。
“The Black Lives Matter protests of a few years ago, you get the things that go on on college campuses– threading those all together would be a powerful signal to people that we need to stop this anti-America, anti-Western sentiment that's emerging,” the person said.