无论2026年中期选举结果如何，任何赢得多数席位的政党都将是因为独立选民的支持而获胜。在过去的几次选举中，这一群体一直是最终决定选举结果的关键摇摆票。独立选民是造王者。
Regardless of the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, any party that wins the majority will have done so because of the independent vote. For the past several elections, this cohort has been the crucial swing vote that ultimately decides the election. Independents are the kingmakers.
如果民主党在11月3日大获全胜，预计会出现一个熟悉的故事。权威人士会称之为民意授权。党派领导人会说选民想要他们的议程。他们都错了。
If Democrats win big on Nov. 3, expect a familiar story. Pundits will call it a mandate. Party leaders will say voters want their agenda. They will be wrong.
我整个职业生涯都在党派政治中度过，我不断看到同样的错误。两党都把抗议性的选举结果解读为背书。
I have spent my career in partisan politics, and I keep seeing the same mistake. Both parties read the results of a protest as an endorsement.
原因如下。独立选民并不完全契合党派框架。他们不是隐藏的民主党人，也不是隐藏的共和党人。他们在某些事情上同意每一方的观点，在另一些事情上则两方都不认同，这正是两党都无法声称拥有他们的原因。
Here is why. Independents do not fit neatly into a partisan box. They are not secret Democrats, and they are not secret Republicans. They agree with each side on some things and with neither on others, which is exactly why neither party can claim them.
这并不意味着他们缺乏信念。独立选民和大多数美国人一样，对政治和政策有连贯的看法。这些立场被广泛认同，并为有意义的立法提供了机会。在能源方面，70%的美国人希望政府积极扩大供应：更多能源、更低价格、更少污染。在移民方面，77%的人希望维持或扩大合法移民，重点关注经济所需的技能。尊重我们的法律，欢迎那些做出贡献的人。
That does not mean they lack convictions. Independents, like most Americans, have coherent views on politics and policy. And these positions are widely shared and present opportunity for meaningful legislation. On energy, 70% of Americans want government to actively expand supply: more energy, lower prices, less pollution. On immigration, 77% want legal immigration maintained or expanded, focused on the skills the economy needs. Respect our laws, and welcome those who contribute.
在科技方面，83%的人希望父母拥有法律权利来查看和控制孩子在社交媒体上的行为。在支出方面，73%的人希望禁止国会使用隐藏法案长期成本的会计花招。在反腐败方面，78%的人支持对国会议员实行任期限制。
On technology, 83% want parents to have the legal right to see and control what their kids do on social media. On spending, 73% want to bar Congress from using accounting tricks that hide the long-term cost of a bill. On corruption, 78% support term limits for members of Congress.
把这些放在一起，议程就很清楚了。量入为出。信守承诺。在保护我们的社区、孩子和自由的同时赢得未来。建立一个对人民而非政党负责的政府。这既不是进步派的愿望清单，也不是共和党的纲领。投票反对任何当权者，并不等于投票支持任何人的方案。这是对这些事情的诉求。
Put those together and the agenda is clear. Live within our means. Keep our promises. Win the future while protecting our communities, kids and liberties. Build a government accountable to people, not parties. That is not the progressive wish list, and it is not the Republican platform either. A vote against whoever is in charge is not a vote for anyone’s program. It is a demand for these things.
看看独立选民实际上在不满什么。边境问题在多年承诺之后仍未解决。能源成本持续挤压家庭预算。而人工智能（AI）正在重塑就业和日常生活，国会却只给出演讲而非计划。这些不是左派或右派的抱怨。这些是对当权者未能取得成果的抱怨。
Look at what independents are actually upset about. The border is still unresolved after years of promises. Energy costs keep squeezing family budgets. And artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping jobs and daily life while Congress offers speeches instead of a plan. These are not left or right complaints. They are complaints about people in charge who are not getting results.
独立选民现在是美国最大的选民群体。他们决定势均力敌的选举，而且他们对两党都没有忠诚。他们投票给看起来最不可能让事情变得更糟的那个人。两年前，那是某一个政党。今年可能是另一个。
Independents are now the largest bloc of American voters. They decide close elections, and they have no loyalty to either team. They vote for whoever seems least likely to make things worse. Two years ago, that was one party. This year it may be the other.
数字说明了问题。大约三分之二的独立选民说华盛顿听不到他们的声音。这个数字描述的并不是找到了新政治归宿的人。它描述的是感到被抛弃、正在寻找出口的人。
The numbers tell the story. Roughly two-thirds of independents say Washington does not hear them. That is not a number that describes people who have found a new political home. It describes people who feel abandoned and are looking for the exit.
要出现蓝色浪潮，将取决于那些捏着鼻子投票的独立选民。他们投票给民主党，是因为替代选项看起来更糟，而不是因为他们接受了进步派的愿望清单。把这种投票当作空白支票，正是一个政党两年后失去同一批选民的方式。
For a blue wave to occur, it will rest on independents who are holding their noses. They will be voting for Democrats because the alternative looks worse, not because they have embraced the progressive wish list. Treating that vote as a blank check is how a party loses the same voters two years later.
以犯罪问题为例。大多数美国人，无论属于哪个政党，都想要安全的街道和运转良好的司法系统。想象一下众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯走到麦克风前，宣布一项严肃、常识性的犯罪法案。为良好的警务提供资金。追查暴力惯犯。保护正当程序。这不会是一个激进的想法。这会是一个合理的主张。
Consider crime. Most Americans, whatever their party, want safe streets and a justice system that works. Imagine House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stepping to the microphone to announce a serious, commonsense crime bill. Fund good policing. Go after repeat violent offenders. Protect due process. It would not be a radical idea. It would be a reasonable one.
这一举动本将改变国家的叙事。独立选民会予以关注。这将表明该党愿意从中间立场出发施政，并倾听那些并非在所有问题上都与其意见一致的人的声音。
That single act would change the national story. Independents would take notice. It would say the party is willing to govern from the center and listen to people who do not agree with it on everything.
但这项法案不会到来，原因显而易见。一个渴望获得中间选民支持的政党，却被其左翼派系拖累，后者视在公共安全问题上的妥协为背叛。像美国民主社会主义者这样的团体，对党内的活力和初选拥有巨大影响力。杰弗里斯若想向中间靠拢，势必会在自己的联盟内部引发斗争，因此他并未尝试。
But that bill will not come, and the reason is not hard to see. A party that wants the support of the middle is being pulled by a left flank that treats a compromise on public safety as betrayal. Groups like the Democratic Socialists of America hold enormous sway over the energy and the primaries. Jeffries cannot move toward the center without a fight inside his own coalition, and so he does not try.
这才是民主党面临的真正危险。那些可能把多数席位交到他们手中的独立选民，将拭目以待他们如何运用这份权力。如果答案是急剧向激进左翼倾斜，这些选民离去的速度将和他们到来时一样快。
That is the real danger for Democrats. The very independents who may hand them a majority will be watching to see what they do with it. If the answer is a sharp turn toward the activist left, those voters will leave just as fast as they arrived.
共和党也不应掉以轻心。如果他们失利，将是因为他们同样未能倾听。两党多年来都在争取忠诚基本盘的支持，而忽视其他所有人。结果是，大多数选民感觉自己是在两个失望之间做选择。
NEWT GINGRICH: REPUBLICANS CAN WIN THE 2026 MIDTERMS — IF THEY FOLLOW THE PLAN Republicans should not take comfort either. If they lose, it will be because they too failed to listen. Both parties have spent years competing for the loyal base and ignoring everyone else. The result is a country in which most voters feel they are choosing between two disappointments.
存在一条更好的道路，且并不复杂。确保边境安全，修复合法移民制度。通过建设所需设施降低能源成本。在技术失控前，为人工智能（AI）设立合理的护栏。以尊重各类选民的方式做成这些事，独立选民就会给予回报。无视他们，他们就会惩罚你，无论你名字后面跟着的是哪个字母。
There is a better path, and it is not complicated. Secure the border and fix the legal immigration system. Lower energy costs by building what we need. Set sensible guardrails on artificial intelligence (AI) before the technology outruns us. Do these things in a way that respects voters of every stripe, and independents will reward you. Ignore them, and they will punish you, whatever letter follows your name.
这就是为什么仅仅几小撮独立选民就能彻底改变我们审视和开展政治的方式。越来越多的美国人认同独立派，但国会议员中独立派却寥寥无几。这一鸿沟，正是这场十一月大选背后的深层故事。
This is why just a few handfuls of independents can entirely change the way we view and conduct politics. A growing share of the country is independent, yet very few members of Congress are. That gap is the story behind the story this November.
点票结束后，获胜者应当提出一个尖锐的问题。选民究竟是选择了我们，还是仅仅抛弃了另一方？诚实的回答将决定这次选举究竟是一个转折点，还是仅仅又一次钟摆的摇晃。
When the votes are counted, the winners should ask a hard question. Did voters choose us, or did they simply reject the other side? The honest answer will decide whether this election is a turning point or just another swing of the pendulum.