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六个关键州的选民能告诉我们关于2026年中期选举的哪些信息What voters in 6 key states could tell us about the 2026 midterms

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四周后,中期选举将有助于决定国会的权力平衡。在选举日之前,《早间新闻》将前往六个竞争最激烈的州,听取选民对他们的决定的看法。

Four weeks from now, the midterm elections will help decide the balance of power in Congress. And ahead of Election Day, Morning Edition will be traveling to six states with some of the most competitive races to hear what voters say is shaping their decisions.

我们已经有了一些关于选民立场的线索。最新的NPR/PBS新闻/Marist民意调查发现,选民支持民主党进入国会的比例高于共和党12个百分点。选民也非常关心特朗普总统,45%的人表示他们投票给国会就是反对他,而大约四分之一的人表示他们投票支持他。

We already have some clues about where voters stand. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll founded voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans by 12 percentage points. President Trump is also very much on voters' minds, with 45% saying their vote for Congress is a vote against him, compared with about a quarter who say they are voting to support him.

在政治分歧中,一个问题不断上升:生活成本及其对人们的经济未来意味着什么。

Across the political divide, one concern keeps rising to the top: the cost of living and what it means for people's economic futures.

但今年,导致这些成本的一些力量远不止于选民自己的社区。与伊朗的战争正在影响加油站的价格。华盛顿征收的关税正在到达收银台。外交政策、经济政策和家庭成本变得越来越难分开。

But this year, some of the forces driving those costs are coming from far beyond voters' own communities. The war with Iran is affecting prices at the gas pump. Tariffs imposed in Washington are reaching the checkout counter. Foreign policy, economic policy and household costs are becoming harder to separate.

共和党和民主党都在竞选中承诺让日常生活变得更实惠。但选民所考虑的不仅仅是他们的账单。移民和大规模数据中心的快速增长也是对话的一部分。投票过程本身也是如此,包括新的限制,这些限制引发了人们对如何投票、确保和计票的质疑。

Republicans and Democrats are both campaigning on promises to make everyday life more affordable. But voters are weighing more than their bills. Immigration and the rapid growth of massive data centers are also part of the conversation. So is the voting process itself, including new restrictions that are raising questions about how ballots will be cast, secured and counted.

在其中的几个州,另一个问题笼罩着竞选:选民希望自己的政党得到什么,旧的政治忠诚是否仍然存在?这些是早间版将讨论的一些问题,利用六个州作为了解正在变化的选民的窗口。

And in several of these states, another question hangs over the races: What do voters want from their own parties, and do old political loyalties still hold? Those are some of the questions that Morning Edition will take on the road, using the six states as a window into an electorate that is changing.

史蒂夫·因斯基普正在北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州进行报道,这两个南方州都备受瞩目。北卡罗来纳州有一个空缺的参议院席位,以及重新划分的国会选区。而在佐治亚州,参议院和州长职位的竞争都十分激烈,此前几场选举中,选民都支持了来自两党的候选人。

Steve Inskeep is reporting from North Carolina and Georgia, two closely watched Southern states. North Carolina has an open Senate seat and newly redrawn congressional districts. Georgia has competitive races for Senate and governor after several elections in which voters have backed candidates from both parties.

“我正在观察并倾听那些认为这次选举与自身息息相关的人们的声音,”因斯基普说。

"I am watching and listening for people who feel this election is personal," Inskeep said.

他希望能听到那些认为特朗普政府在移民、政府运作、教育、税收、外交政策和经济方面所作改变直接影响自己的人们的看法。

He wants to hear from people who feel directly affected by the Trump administration's changes to immigration, government, education, taxes, foreign policy and the economy.

“特朗普本人并未出现在选票上,但他敦促选民仿佛他参选一样去投票。鉴于其政府所采取的重大举措,选民很可能也会做出相应的反应,”因斯基普说。

"Trump is not on the ballot but has urged voters to act as if he is, and given the consequential acts of his administration, voters are likely to respond as if he is," Inskeep said.

米歇尔·马丁将前往俄亥俄州和密歇根州,那里的一些最大问题涉及中西部的政治变革。在俄亥俄州,州长和参议院职位的竞争异常激烈,而经济焦虑则是其中的背景因素。在斯普林菲尔德,马丁还将考察海地人临时保护身份政策的终止如何影响当地社区——海地移民在该州人口中占相当大比例——以及移民问题上的分歧是否正在改变选民对自己政党的看法。

Michel Martin is headed to Ohio and Michigan, where some of the biggest questions are about political change in the Midwest. Ohio has competitive races for governor and Senate against a backdrop of economic anxiety. In Springfield, Martin will also look at how the end of temporary protected status for Haitians is affecting a community where Haitian immigrants make up a significant share of the population — and whether disagreements over immigration are changing how voters see their own parties.

密歇根州则呈现出另一组考验。2024年,特朗普在该州以微弱优势获胜,当时拜登政府处理加沙战争的方式引发了一些选民的强烈不满,尤其是在密歇根州的阿拉伯裔美国社区。该州的年轻选民投票率也出现了显著上升。今年,一个空缺的参议院席位和一场州长选举再次提供了观察这些变化是否延续到中期选举的机会,同时也将揭示年轻选民和非裔选民在民主党联盟中扮演的重要角色。

Michigan offers a different set of tests. Trump won the state narrowly in 2024, when anger over the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza was a major issue for some voters, particularly in Michigan's Arab American communities. The state also saw a sharp increase in young-voter turnout. This year, an open Senate seat and a governor's race offer another chance to see whether those shifts are carrying into the midterms — and what role younger and Black voters are playing in the Democratic coalition.

马丁称俄亥俄州和密歇根州是“两个重要的州,它们总是告诉我们很多关于国家其他地区的现状和未来的信息。“在密歇根州,在该州在关键竞选中同时选择了民主党和共和党后,她将问是什么驱使选民。

Martin calls Ohio and Michigan "two big consequential states that have always told us a lot about where the rest of the country is, and is going." In Michigan, she will be asking what is driving voters after the state has chosen both Democrats and Republicans in key races.

“他们生气了吗?悲伤?或者只是精疲力尽?我们希望找出答案,”马丁说。

"Are they mad? Sad? Or just exhausted?

莱拉·法德尔(Leila Fadel)从缅因州报道,该州的参议院竞选可能有助于确定众议院的控制权。共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯正在寻求连任,对手是民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊。移民和贸易也是那里政治对话的一部分。

We hope to find out," Martin said. Leila Fadel is reporting from Maine, where a Senate race could help determine control of the chamber. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking another term against Democrat Troy Jackson. Immigration and trade are also part of the political conversation there.

法德尔说:“我想知道是什么驱动着选民,以及政党忠诚度在多大程度上仍然发挥着作用。”“他们的选票可供争夺吗?或者他们是否按照党派路线被封锁?“缅因州与加拿大漫长的边境线也给贸易战带来了不同的维度,因为关税和跨境贸易紧张局势影响着与加拿大经济联系密切的企业和社区。该州也受到了特朗普政府移民镇压的影响。法德尔表示,她将询问选民他们希望从候选人那里得到什么,以及传达这一信息的政党是否重要。

"I want to know what drives voters and how much party loyalty still plays a role," Fadel said. "Are their votes up for grabs? Or are they locked in along party lines?" Maine's long border with Canada also gives the trade war a different dimension, as tariffs and tensions over cross-border trade affect businesses and communities with close economic ties to Canada. The state has also been affected by the Trump administration's immigration crackdown. Fadel said she will be asking voters what they want from their candidates — and whether the party delivering that message matters.

马丁内斯即将前往德克萨斯州,共和党人正在测试拉丁裔选民最近的增长是否会持续下去。该州的美国参议院竞选也使德克萨斯州陷入了争夺众议院控制权的全国斗争。

A Martínez is heading to Texas, where Republicans are testing whether recent gains among Latino voters will hold. The state's U.S. Senate race has also put Texas in the national fight over control of the chamber.

共和党在中期选举中重新划定了五个国会选区,以支持共和党,其中三个选区的拉丁裔选民较多。马丁内斯表示,这使得该党围绕拉丁裔选民的策略成为他想要研究的问题之一。

Republicans redrew five congressional districts to favor the Republican Party in the midterms, including three with more Latino voters. Martínez said that this makes the party's strategy around Latino voters one of the questions he wants to examine.

“德克萨斯州共和党在拉丁裔选民身上大举押注的背后是什么?这是否有助于共和党保持对美国参议院的控制权?“在接下来的四周里,《晨报》将报道美国各地的种族和选民,问了许多同样的问题:现在对选民来说什么最重要,发生了什么变化,这个国家下一步将走向何方?

"What's behind the Texas GOP's big bet on Latino voters, and will it help Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate?" Over the next four weeks, Morning Edition will report from races and electorates across the U.S., asking many of the same questions: What matters to voters now, what has changed and where is the country headed next?

跟踪报道:缅因州的报道将于今天10月6日播出。接下来是10月13日的德克萨斯州报道,随后是北卡罗莱纳州和乔治亚州的报道,然后是俄希略州和密歇根州的报道。您可以在《早间新闻》和NPR.org以及NPR应用程序和《Up First》时事通讯上关注。本文由特雷·格林编辑。

Follow the reporting: Maine coverage airs today, Oct. 6. Texas is up next on Oct. 13, followed by reporting from North Carolina and Georgia and then Ohio and Michigan. You can follow along on Morning Edition and NPR.org, as well as in the NPR app and the Up First newsletter. This piece was edited by Treye Green.