Cook Political Report，一个非党派的选举预测机构，本周将11个众议院席位向民主党倾斜，其中许多位于共和党传统票仓州，随着中期选举临近。
Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted 11 more House seats toward Democrats this week, many in red states as the midterms inch closer.
在过去几周里，随着民主党的政治环境改善，Cook已将数十个众议院席位从共和党阵营转移，这一趋势受到特朗普总统在民调中的不受欢迎程度以及对伊朗战争日益增长的不满推动。
Cook has moved dozens of House seats away from Republicans in recent weeks as the political environment improves for Democrats, driven by President Trump’s unpopularity in the polls and growing disapproval of the Iran war.
共和党众议员布拉德·芬斯塔德（明尼苏达州）、迈克·特纳（俄亥俄州）和迈克·凯里（俄亥俄州）所在选区已从“可能共和党”转为“倾向共和党。”两个空缺席位——纽约州第21 congressional 区和南卡罗来纳州第1 congressional 区——也以类似方式发生了变化。
Republican Reps. Brad Finstad (Minn.), Mike Turner (Ohio) and Mike Carey (Ohio) saw their districts shift from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”Two open seats — New York’s 21st Congressional District and South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District — shifted in a similar manner.
根据Cook报告，共和党众议员德里克·施密特（堪萨斯州）和迈克·弗洛德（内布拉斯加州）所在选区已从“稳固共和党”转为“可能共和党”，此外，共和党持有的佛罗里达州第16 congressional 区（一个空缺席位）也出现了同样的变化。
GOP Reps. Derek Schmidt (Kan.) and Mike Flood (Neb.) saw their districts move from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” as well as an open seat held by the GOP, Florida’s 16th district, according to the Cook report.
蒙大拿州的空缺第1 congressional 区——特朗普在2024年曾以12个百分点赢得该地区——已从“倾向共和党”转为“摇摆不定。”对于民主党而言，现任众议员格雷格·兰德斯曼（俄亥俄州）和贾里德·莫斯科维茨（佛罗里达州）所在选区进一步向左倾斜。共和党在中期选举前重新划定了兰德斯曼和莫斯科维茨的选区，希望新的选区图能使这些席位更容易被夺取。
Montana’s open 1st Congressional District, which Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, moved from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”For the Democrats, incumbent Reps. Greg Landsman (Ohio) and Jared Moskowitz (Fla.) saw their districts move further left. Republicans redrew both Landsman and Moskowitz’s districts ahead of the midterms and hoped the new map would make the seats easier to flip.
与2018年中期选举不同，当时许多民主党的胜利来自希拉里·克林顿在2016年赢得的地区，而今年该党若想赢得可观的众议院多数，必须将焦点放在特朗普在2024年赢得的席位上。
Unlike in the 2018 midterms, when many of the Democratic gains were in areas former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won in 2016, the party needs to focus on Trump-won seats to win a sizable House majority this year.
民主党目前正在瞄准的许多选区位于特朗普在2024年以双位数优势获胜的地区。
Many of the districts that Democrats are now targeting are in places the president carried by double digits in 2024.
Cook的美国众议院编辑艾琳·科维在其分析中指出，追踪关键选区的支出可以洞察两党如何看待哪些席位构成了中期选战的战场。
Cook’s U.S. House editor Erin Covey noted in her analysis that tracking spending in key districts gives insight to how both parties view which seats make up the midterm battlefield.
科维写道：“这些选举正在看到来自众议院多数派政治行动委员会、国会领导基金以及MAGA公司超级政治行动委员会的大量外部投资，这表明双方都认为这些竞争非常激烈。”
“These races are now seeing heavy outside investment from House Majority PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc.’s super PACs, a sign that both sides view these contests as competitive,” Covey wrote.
编辑补充说，民主党似乎在曾支持前总统奥巴马但在2024年转向特朗普的选区中具有竞争力 — — 而在其他选举中则并未表现出特别接近的竞争态势。
The editor added that Democrats appear to be competitive in seats that voted for former President Obama but swung to Trump in 2024 — and have not been particularly close in other contests.