这是一场不受欢迎的战争，一位不受欢迎的总统，以及普遍存在的经济焦虑。随着2026年中期选举的临近（距离选举仅剩不到三周的时间），人们不断将当前局势与2006年的情况进行比较。
An unpopular war. An unpopular president. And widespread economic anxiety. With the 2026 midterms less than three weeks away, the comparisons to 2006 are everywhere.
2006年，在乔治·W·布什总统第二个任期的中途，民主党赢得了31个众议院席位——这一优势足以让他们掌控众议院的控制权。当时担任民主党国会竞选委员会主席的拉姆·伊曼纽尔本周在接受MS NOW采访时明确表示，他的政党无疑会在11月的选举中赢得众议院的控制权。
That year, midway through President George W. Bush’s second term, Democrats netted 31 House seats — more than enough to take control of the chamber. The driving force behind those House gains, then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rahm Emanuel, told MS NOW this week there is no doubt his party will win control of the chamber in November.
“问题在于，”他说，“能赢得多少席位？”民主党需要净增大约4个席位才能获得多数席位。他们最终能赢得多少席位，在很大程度上取决于他们在最后几周的竞选力度。他们必须在财务上的劣势与民调显示的某些传统上属于共和党的选区的实际获胜机会之间做出权衡。
“The question is,” he said, “by how many?”Democrats need a net gain of about four seats to win the majority. How far past that they go will depend in no small part on how aggressive the party is in the final weeks. It has to weigh a financial disadvantage against polls suggesting real opportunities in some traditionally red areas.
一些分析人士认为，民主党在2006年的竞选中不够积极，因此错失了一些席位。两年后，当巴拉克·奥巴马成为民主党候选人时，民主党又赢得了21个席位。
Some analysts have argued that Democrats were not aggressive enough in 2006 and left seats on the table. Case in point: Two years later — with Barack Obama atop the ticket — the party added another 21 seats to their column.
伊曼纽尔对这种批评不以为然。他说：“我们从少数党变成了多数党。”他还补充道：“总是会有‘如果当时采取了不同策略会怎样’这样的假设。”今年到目前为止，民主党国会竞选委员会已经为“‘从共和党手中夺取选区’”计划提名了46名候选人；这些候选人来自那些他们认为有获胜可能的选区，并会获得战略指导、人力资源支持以及更有力的筹款帮助。
Emanuel brushes off that critique. “We went from the minority to the majority,” he told MS NOW, adding that “there’s always a ‘what if.’”So far this year, the DCCC has named 46 candidates to its “Red to Blue” program — a list of top recruits in seats they see as feasibly winnable who receive access to strategic guidance, staff resources and more robust fundraising help.
这份名单中包括了卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年获胜的选区的候选人。不过，该委员会也不断将候选人的范围扩展到那些对唐纳德·特朗普总统更为友好的地区。最近新增的候选人布莱克·詹德比恩正在纽约州北部的一个选区参选；在2024年的选举中，特朗普在该选区以大约20个百分点的优势获胜。
The roster includes candidates in districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. But the committee has also repeatedly expanded it into territory far friendlier to President Donald Trump. One recent addition, Blake Gendebien, is running in an upstate New York district that Trump carried by roughly 20 points in 2024.
部分原因在于高度划分选区的国会地图，这让民主党别无选择，只能把目光投向传统竞争激烈地区之外。但这种扩张也反映出一种基于民调的乐观情绪，民调显示该党实际上可能在这些地区具备竞争力。
Part of the reason is the heavily gerrymandered congressional maps, which have left Democrats little choice but to look beyond traditional battlegrounds. But the expansion also reflects a bullishness rooted in polling that suggests the party might actually be able to compete there.
参议院地图提供了最清晰的图景——堪萨斯州和德克萨斯州等州出人意料地接近。
The Senate map has offered the clearest picture of this — with states such as Kansas and Texas surprisingly close.
接受MS NOW采访的民主党策略师表示，他们对本轮选举党内的积极进取“相当满意”。
Democratic strategists contacted by MS NOW said they are “pretty happy” with how aggressive the party has been this cycle.
“大胆进取很重要，我认为我们想要接触的选民希望看到我们在努力争取他们，”为支持民主党众议院和参议院候选人的组织工作的安德鲁·马莫说。
“Going big is important, and I think the folks we are trying to reach want to see us trying to reach them,” said Andrew Mamo, who works for a group supporting Democratic candidates for the House and Senate.
“我们总是面临这样的问题：民主党似乎并不想让所有人都加入我们的联盟，”马莫补充道。“所以我认为非常明确地说——无论是某个地区、某个社区、某个族群——‘我们认为这有胜算，我们要去争取’是好的。”
“We always have the problem that it doesn’t feel like Democrats want everyone in our coalition,” Mamo added. “So I think very explicitly saying — be it a portion of the country, a community, a race — ’Hey, we think this is winnable. We’re going to go try here’ is good.”
另一位民主党从业者克里斯·梅格尔表示，民主党全国委员会显然在继续扩大地图，甚至进入深红区，“因为选民对共和党执政以及他们留下的失信承诺越来越失望”。但雄心代价高昂，共和党拥有数亿美元的储备，其中大部分来自特朗普的超级政治行动委员会MAGA Inc.《纽约时报》报道，伊曼纽尔一直为纽约州众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯提供意见，他在接受MS NOW采访时表示，谈到资源时，“必须确保不要把花生酱抹得太薄”。
Chris Meagher, another Democratic operative, said the DCCC is clearly continuing to expand the map, even into deep-red areas, “because voters are continuing to sour on Republicans being in power and the broken promises that they’re leaving behind.”But ambition is expensive, and Republicans have hundreds of millions of dollars at the ready, much of it through Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc. Emanuel, who The New York Times reports has been serving as a sounding board for House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, told MS NOW that when it comes to resources, “you got to make sure you’re not spreading the peanut butter too thin.”
上周，民主党全国委员会领导层透露了党内的财政状况以及这可能对十余场选举在最后阶段产生的影响。
Last week, DCCC leadership gave a glimpse of the party’s financial situation and what it could mean for more than a dozen races in the final stretch.
在MS NOW获得的一份备忘录中，DCCC执行董事朱莉·梅尔兹写道：“MAGA Inc. … 拥有超过4亿美元现金，埃隆·马斯克承诺在中期选举中投入高达1.2亿美元。”梅尔兹补充道：“鉴于共和党的资金优势，我们现在发现自己处于一种境地：如果没有DCCC的进一步投资，我们可能会把一些本来可以赢得的选举放在桌面上。”梅尔兹特别指出了佛罗里达州第27选区、内华达州第2选区、南卡罗来纳州第1选区和纽约州第21选区。特朗普在2024年均以两位数优势赢得了这四个选区。
In a memo obtained by MS NOW, DCCC Executive Director Julie Merz wrote that “MAGA Inc. … has over $400 million cash-on-hand, and Elon Musk has committed to dump up to $120 million in the midterms.”“Given the Republican cash advantage,” Merz added, “we now find ourselves in a situation where we could be leaving winnable races on the table without further investment from the DCCC.”Merz singled out Florida’s 27th District, Nevada’s 2nd, South Carolina’s 1st and New York’s 21st. Trump won all four by double digits in 2024.
民主党也在应对一张不均衡的选举地图。深红色地区似乎正在成为竞争焦点，但传统摇摆州的潮流未必上升得那么快。堪萨斯州参议院选举可能突然变得具有竞争力，而密歇根州仍然是它长期以来的样子：一个仍然需要资源的摇摆州。策略师和候选人给出了各种解释。
Democrats are also grappling with an uneven map. Deep-red territory appears to be in play, but the tide is not necessarily rising as fast in traditional battlegrounds. The Kansas Senate race may suddenly be competitive, yet Michigan remains what it has long been: a battleground that still needs resources. Strategists and candidates offer a range of explanations.
一些人指向当地情况。“在这些以前没有举办过如此激烈竞争选举的地方，现在有更多人愿意成为摇摆选民，”马莫说，特别提到了德克萨斯州的拉美裔选民。“他们会一直这样做吗？我不知道，”他补充道。
Some point to conditions on the ground. “In some of these places that haven’t had these giant competitive elections, there’s just so many more people willing to be swingy right now,” Mamo said, invoking, in particular, Latino voters in Texas. “Will they do it forever? I don’t know,” he added.
另一些人则指向候选人本身。另一位要求匿名以便坦率发言的民主党策略师认为，“候选人质量”问题是密歇根州参议院选举仍然具有竞争力的原因——更不用说缅因州因个人丑闻导致候选人更换的情况了。
Others point to the candidates themselves. Another Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, argued problems with “candidate quality” are the reason races like the Michigan Senate contest are still competitive — not to mention the personal scandal that precipitated a candidate swap in Maine.
“就算引号里的‘建制派’在这一轮中受到了很多批评，看看谁实际上在各自州表现良好，以及哪些州的竞争态势胶着，”这位策略师说。
“For as much shit as the quote-unquote ‘establishment’ has gotten this cycle, look at who is actually performing well in their states versus where are the states that are tight,” the strategist said.
“罗伊·库珀，我们甚至不再谈论那场选举了，”他们补充道。库珀是民主党人，也是北卡罗来纳州前州长，他在该州的参议院选举中一直领先民调。
“Roy Cooper, we’re not even talking about that race anymore,” they added. Cooper, a Democrat and North Carolina’s former governor, has long led the polls in that battleground state’s Senate race.
密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）对此有自己的解释：共和党在资金上的优势，以及他们故意将他打造成一个“全国性的敌人”的策略。
Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan’s Democratic Senate nominee, has his own explanation: the GOP’s financial firepower, and its decision to make him a national boogeyman.
“在竞选中，我们仍然面临着巨大的资金劣势，”埃尔-赛义德最近在接受MS NOW采访时说道。他提到，“MAGA运动”正在投入大量资金来支持共和党的候选人。此外，他还表示：“JD·万斯（JD Vance）明确要求所有共和党人都应该与他竞争。”如果共和党的策略在选举日取得成功，一些民主党人已经开始考虑下一个挑战——如何维持现有的政治联盟。
“There is still a deep money disadvantage that is happening here,” El-Sayed told MS NOW in a recent interview. MAGA Inc., he said, is “dropping huge amounts of money here.”Plus, he said, “JD Vance literally told all of the Republicans to just run against me.”If the party’s big bet pays off on Election Day, some Democrats are already looking ahead to the next challenge: holding that coalition together.
埃马纽尔（Emanuel）公开表示自己正在考虑参选总统；他对MS NOW说：“如果我们赢得了多数席位，那是因为共和党失败了。2027年的结果将决定民主党是否真正理解了‘变革’的必要性。”他认为，民主党必须为推动道德改革等立法而努力。
Emanuel, who has made no secret he is weighing a presidential bid, told MS NOW that “if we win the majority, it’s because the Republicans lost.”“What we do in 2027 will determine whether Democrats have won and understand the message of change,” he said. He argued that Democrats will need to fight for legislation such as ethics reforms.
“如果再次陷入政治纷争，那我们只会让双方都受到伤害，”他补充道。
“If you get into another political food fight, you’ve done nothing except for say, ‘Pox on both your houses,’” he added.
同样，正在宾夕法尼亚州一个关键选区参选的民主党候选人鲍勃·布鲁克斯（Bob Brooks）也表达了类似的观点：“我们必须为那些支持我们并投票给我们的选民提供切实的利益和改善他们生活的方法。如果我们只是带着空洞的口号去竞选，而实际情况没有任何改变，几年后我们还是会陷入同样的困境。”
Bob Brooks, a Democrat running to flip a battleground district in Pennsylvania, made a similar case. “We have to provide the people that come with us and vote for us — we have to provide them with a product. We have to make their lives better,” he told MS NOW. “If we go down there with a message and things don’t change, we’re going to be in the same boat a few years from now.”