资深民主党人正在降低对可能赢得的众议院多数席位规模的预期，因为双方都看到战场正在收紧。
Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlefield.
据六位知情人士透露，双方在10月中下旬进行的最新一轮内部民调显示，共和党候选人在中西部取得进展，并在一个关键的科罗拉多州选区及其他地方缩小了差距。这些知情人士因未获授权公开讨论数据而要求匿名。共和党倾注的巨额资金似乎也有助于巩固佛罗里达州一些岌岌可危的席位，尽管他们在北卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州面临严重问题。在2024年大选后由特朗普引发的重新划分选区中，共和党以有利于自己的方式对这三个州进行了杰利蝾螈式划分。
The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from the middle of October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP gerrymandered those three states in their favor in the Trump-induced round of redistricting following the 2024 election.
现在，国会山的民主党人开始私下告诫党内一些较为激进的同僚，他们在2018年选举后获得的235个席位这一高点，现在看来很有可能无法达到，据其中一位知情人士及另外两位直接了解谈话内容的人士透露。
Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are starting to privately caution some of their bolder colleagues that it seems very possible they don’t hit the 235-seat height of their majority following the 2018 elections, according to one of those people and two others with direct knowledge of the conversations.
“我不认为有人曾真心相信我们能达到2018年的数字，”一位众议院民主党议员表示。“我诚实地认为结果将好坏参半。保持谨慎在我看来是明智的。但保持乐观也是好的。”这与一些民主党人本月早些时候的基调形成显著反差：民主党众议院竞选委员会（DCCC）政治总监布鲁克·巴特勒曾预测，他们本周期的多数席位可能达到240个。“218到240席之间的任何数字都非常可行，”她本月早些时候在宣布DCCC计划将目标瞄准深入共和党腹地的新选区时告诉《政治报》（POLITICO）。
“I don’t think anyone ever believed we were going to have 2018 numbers,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.”That’s a notable change from the tune some Democrats were singing just earlier this month: Brooke Butler, political director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had predicted that their majority this cycle could reach 240 seats. “Anywhere between 218 and 240 feels very viable,” she told POLITICO earlier this month in announcing the DCCC’s plans to target new districts deep in GOP territory.
据两位在竞争激烈选区工作的民主党操盘手透露，一些民主党人感觉自己的内部民调在某些情况下高估了自身实力，这两人因获准坦率发言而要求匿名。但该党仍对赢得多数派地位充满信心，并渴望让共和党继续花钱防守原本稳固的红色席位。
Some Democrats feel their own internal polling is over-indexing their strength in some cases, according to two other operatives working on competitive races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. But the party is still confident they’ll win the majority and are eager to keep Republicans spending to defend once-safe red seats.
在9月下旬全面的共和党恐慌情绪开始蔓延、并提振了许多民主党人的乐观情绪之前，少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯曾预测，众议院民主党将赢得220个席位。
Before the all-out GOP panic started in late September and boosted many Democrats’ bullishness, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicted House Democrats would win 220 seats.
“考虑到全国竞争激烈的众议院选区中投入了大量由亿万富翁支持的外部资金，以及共和党试图操纵中期选举的似乎永无止境的阴谋——我们一直知道，决定多数党地位的选战将胶着至最后时刻，”民主党众议院竞选委员会（DCCC）发言人维特·谢尔顿在一份声明中说。“我们清醒地认识到，众议院民主党有望赢得多数席位，这需要全力冲刺直到选举日。”
“Given the mountain of outside, billionaire-backed cash being dropped in competitive House races across the country and the seemingly never-ending schemes by Republicans to try to rig the midterms — we’ve always known that the majority-making races would come down to the wire,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “We’re clear-eyed that House Democrats are poised to win the majority, and it will take running flat out until Election Day.”
尽管如此，早早被认定为战场的核心众议院战场选区出现的胶着局面，意味着根据六位了解民主党和共和党内部民调情况的人士透露，大量这些选战目前处于误差范围内，或者在某些情况下共和党仅落后几个百分点。这包括密歇根州第7选区共和党众议员汤姆·巴雷特与民主党人威廉·劳伦斯之间的角逐。
Still, the tightening in the core House battleground districts that were identified as battlegrounds early on means a slew of those races are currently within the margin of error, or Republicans in some cases are running just a few points behind, according to the six people with knowledge of the internal Democratic and GOP polling. That includes the race for Michigan’s 7th District between GOP Rep. Tom Barrett and Democrat William Lawrence.
威斯康星州第3选区这一另一场备受瞩目的战地选战自上个月以来也收窄了几个百分点，因为共和党投入了数百万美元更多的广告支出。根据《政治》（POLITICO）获得的一份库克竞选团队10月中旬的内部民调，在多候选人投票中，民主党人丽贝卡·库克以47%对46%领先共和党众议员德里克·范奥登1个百分点。“威斯康星州向来胶着且竞争激烈——尤其是在特朗普大获全胜的选区，”一位库克竞选团队助手说。
Another marquee battleground in Wisconsin’s 3rd District has tightened a few points since last month, as Republicans pour in millions of dollars more in ad spending. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is running 1 percentage point ahead of GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a multi-candidate vote, 47% to 46%, according to an internal Cooke campaign poll from mid-October obtained by POLITICO. "Wisconsin is always close and hard-fought — especially in a district Trump won decisively,” a Cooke campaign aide said.
“我们的工人阶级信息产生了共鸣，但我们需要资源确保它被听到。”在爱荷华州，共和党仍认为他们可能会失去众议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯的第1选区。但他们对众议员扎克·努恩在爱荷华州第3选区以及乔·米切尔在爱荷华州空缺的第2选区持谨慎乐观态度，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普定于11月1日在该选区举行集会。
“Our working class message is connecting, but we need the resources to make sure it's heard." In Iowa, Republicans still feel they’re likely to lose Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks 1st District. But they’re cautiously optimistic about Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd district and Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s open 2nd District, where President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally on Nov. 1.
“爱荷华州任何处于势均力敌竞争中的共和党人，最终都会在选举日获胜，”一名负责众议院竞选的共和党行动人士说，该人士获准匿名讨论竞选形势。
“Any Republican in Iowa in a neck and neck race ends up winning on Election Day,” said one GOP operative working on House races, who was granted anonymity to discuss the landscape.
共和党高层幕僚和官员仍认为，他们失去众议院多数党地位的可能性更大，但他们希望能限制民主党的优势幅度。
Top GOP staff and officials still believe it’s more likely than not that they lose the House majority, but they’re hopeful they can limit Democrats’ margin.
新的民调结果让他们看到，或许能避免此前担心的那种严重溃败，尤其是在中西部地区——他们在9月下旬和本月初曾担心会在那里遭遇重创。该地区受到特朗普关税议程和柴油成本上涨的冲击最为严重，而柴油成本上涨源于一场不得人心的对伊朗战争——白宫似乎已承认这一点，特朗普承诺向因燃油价格高企而受损的农民提供80亿美元援助。
The new polling is helping them see they might avoid some of the deep hemorrhaging, especially in the Midwest, that they feared in late September and earlier this month. That region has been hit hardest by Trump’s tariff agenda and rising diesel costs resulting from an unpopular Iran war — something the White House has seemed to acknowledge, with Trump promising $8 billion to farmers hurting from high fuel prices.
“民主党人花了几个月时间量窗帘尺寸（指过早谋划胜选后的布局），现在却在尚未宣布任何一场竞选结果前，就忙着降低预期，”全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉说。“共和党从第一天起就全神贯注，并建立了旨在赢得能让我们达到218席的竞选的运作体系。”特朗普也在亲自努力巩固其家乡佛罗里达州岌岌可危的共和党席位，于周五前往该州为共和党选民举行集会。
“Democrats spent months measuring the drapes, and now they’re scrambling to lower expectations before a single race is called,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “Republicans have been laser-focused since day one and built our operation to win the races that will get us to 218.”Trump is also personally working to shore up at-risk Republicans in his home state of Florida with a visit Friday to rally GOP voters.
在过去几天里，共和党开始向佛罗里达州一系列原本稳操胜券的共和党席位大量投入资金，其中包括安娜·保利娜·卢纳众议员的墨西哥湾沿岸选区。共和党也在争分夺秒地挽救几个空缺席位，尽管他们已重新划分选区以利于本党，但共和党在这些选区依然举步维艰。众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯周五前往南佛罗里达为共和党众议员玛丽亚·萨拉查助选，周四则为共和党人丹·格林拉票，后者在重新划分后的选区挑战众议员达伦·索托——在大多数政治环境下，索托本应在共和党的杰利蝾螈式划区面前完蛋了。
Republicans in the last few days started to pile money into a series of once-safe GOP seats there, including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s Gulf Coast seat. Republicans are also racing to save several open seats, despite redrawing the districts in their favor, where the GOP is struggling. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is in South Florida to boost GOP Rep. Maria Salazar on Friday and campaigned on Thursday for Republican Dan Green in the redrawn seat against Rep. Darren Soto, who should be toast under the GOP gerrymander in most political environments.
资深共和党人认为，这笔巨额资金注入开始帮助稳固佛罗里达州的一些席位，尽管他们仍有更多工作要做。
Senior Republicans believe the money bomb is starting to help shore up some Florida seats, though they still have more work to do.
南德克萨斯州仍是众议院共和党在地图上最棘手的地区之一，因为众议院共和党最大的超级政治行动委员会切断了对其明星招募对象——正在挑战民主党籍众议员亨利·库亚尔的塔诺·蒂赫里纳——的资金投入，转而援助其他陷入困境的共和党候选人。该地区一些处于险境的共和党人，如众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹，本应在最近重新划分的选区中稳操胜券。
South Texas remains one of the worst spots on the map for House Republicans, after the top House GOP super PAC cut off spending for one of their star recruits — Tano Tijerina, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar — to help other imperiled GOP candidates. Some at-risk Republicans in the area, like Rep. Monica De La Cruz, should’ve been safe in a recently redrawn seat.
在北卡罗来纳州，共和党人在众议院席位上面临严重的连锁反应，这源于共和党人迈克尔·沃特利的参议院竞选活动崩盘，以及参议院共和党主要团体切断在该州的资金投入。众议院共和党主要团体和特朗普的政治运作团队已经切断了在北卡罗来纳州第11国会选区（该选区无现任议员）的资金投入，民主党人杰米·艾格正在那里挑战共和党人珍妮弗·巴尔科姆。
In North Carolina, Republicans are facing some dire fallout across House seats after the implosion of Republican Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign and top Senate GOP groups cutting off spending in the state. Top House GOP groups and Trump’s political operation have already cut off spending in North Carolina’s open 11th District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging Republican Jennifer Balkcom.