民主党人会很乐意告诉你，他们对周二夺回众议院多数席位的前景感觉有多好——只要他们先停止那种像往纸袋里急促呼吸般的焦虑状态。
Democrats will happily tell you how good they feel about retaking the House on Tuesday— just as soon as they stop hyperventilating into a paper bag. Why it matters:
为何重要：他们在选举日吃过太多次亏，以至于除了“恶心般的乐观”之外，别无他感，正如一位众议院民主党人对Axios所言。
They've been burned too many times on Election Day to feel anything more than "nauseously optimistic," as one House Democrat put it to Axios.
- 民调指向民主党在11月3日取得决定性胜利，但对大规模民调失误或其他最后关头灾难的担忧，让党内成员彻夜难眠。
• The polls point to a decisive Democratic victory on Nov. 3, yet fears of a massive polling error or some other eleventh-hour disaster are giving party members sleepless nights.
- “上周在新泽西州的一次集会上，一位女士告诉我，她感到‘恶心般的乐观’，”众议员杰米·拉斯金（民主党-马里兰州）对Axios表示。“这或许道出了许多人最后时刻的紧张心态。”
• "One woman at a rally in New Jersey told me last week that she was 'nauseously optimistic,'" Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told Axios. "That may capture a lot of people's last-minute jitters."
- 一位与领导层有过交谈的众议院民主党人对Axios说：“他们感到乐观。你知道，是谨慎的。谨慎的乐观。最终会落到什么地步，谁也说不准。”
• A House Democrat who has spoken to leadership told Axios: "They feel optimistic. You know, guarded. Guarded optimism.
局势：民主党瞄准了数十个共和党把持的席位，认为这些席位有可能翻盆，其中一些席位是特朗普在2024年以10、15甚至20个百分点的优势拿下的。
Where we're going to end up, you never know." State of play: Democrats are targeting dozens of Republican-held seats they think could flip, some of which President Trump carried by 10, 15, even 20 percentage points in 2024.
- 例如，民主党的众议院多数派政治行动委员会（HMP）周三开始在即将卸任的众议员埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克（共和党-纽约州）的选区投放广告，特朗普曾以21个百分点的优势赢下该选区。
• Democrats' House Majority PAC, for instance, went on the air Wednesday in retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) district, which Trump won by 21 points.
- 他们也开始针对众议员迈克·弗拉德（共和党-内布拉斯加州）投放广告，后者在上一次连任中获得了60%的选票。
• They also began spending against Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), who won his last reelection with 60% of the vote. HMP is so bullish
HMP 信心十足甚至已将资金从替换即将卸任的众议员唐·培根（共和党-内布拉斯加州）、查克·爱德华兹（共和党-北卡罗来纳州）和达雷尔·伊萨（共和党-加利福尼亚州）的竞选中抽调，他们认为民主党有望轻松拿下这些席位。
it has moved money of the races to replace retiring Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), which they believe Democrats are on track to win handily.
- “我谨慎乐观地认为我们将赢得20到25个席位，”众议员罗·卡纳（民主党-加利福尼亚州）对Axios表示。
• "I am cautiously optimistic we win between 20-25 seats," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios.
- 民主党的大胜设想则让他们更接近40或50个席位的获利，那将是该党具有历史意义的一个夜晚。
• Democrats' landslide scenario puts them closer to 40 or 50 pickups, which would be a historic night for the party. Yes, but:
但是：共和党控制的南方州在本十年中期的重新划分选区，几乎注定会蚀蚀这些获利。
Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is all but certain to cut into those gains.
共和党预计将轻松拿下田纳西州和路易斯安那州重新划分的选区，因为现任民主党议员选择退休，而非面对艰难的连任战。
• The GOP is expected to easily flip redrawn seats in Tennessee and Louisiana where the incumbent Democrats chose to retire rather than face uphill reelection battles.
据三位了解其想法的议员透露，民主党领导层对几位选择在新选区参选的民主党人也感到担忧，其中包括众议员凯西·卡斯特（民主党-佛罗里达州）、达伦·索托（民主党-佛罗里达州）和肖马里·菲格斯（民主党-阿拉巴马州）。
• Democratic leadership is also nervous about several Democrats who opted to run in their new seats, including Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), according to three lawmakers familiar with their thinking. What they're saying:
他们怎么说：周三接受Axios采访的近20位众议院民主党人均表达了不同程度的选举信心。
All of the nearly 20 House Democrats who spoke to Axios on Wednesday expressed some degree of confidence about the election.
- “我这轮竞选跑了26个州，我想说在过去几个月里，民主党人一直乘着一股巨大的乐观和积极行动的浪潮，”拉斯金说。
• "I've been to 26 states this campaign, and I'd say Democrats have been riding a wave of tremendous optimism and activism over the last several months," said Raskin.
- 众议员希拉里·肖尔滕（民主党-密歇根州）告诉Axios，她感觉“确实不错”，并表示“之所以存在谨慎乐观，只是因为……历史原因。”
• Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) told Axios she is feeling "legitimately good" and that "the cautious optimism is there only because of … history."
- “这种乐观是真实的，我认为理由充分，”众议员约翰尼·奥尔泽夫斯基（民主党-马里兰州）说。
• "The optimism is real and I think for good reason," said Rep. Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.). But virtually
但几乎
everyone
所有人也都给出了保持预期克制的理由。“民主党人以前曾被好的民调烧过，”众议员戴夫·敏（民主党-加利福尼亚州）告诉Axios。
also offered reasons for keeping their expectations tempered. "Dems have been burnt by good polling before," Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) told Axios.
- 敏还表示，民主党“高度警觉特朗普及其爪牙正在从事的选举舞弊行为”，其他几位议员也表达了类似观点。
• Min also said Democrats are "hyper-aware of the election tampering that Trump and his goons are engaging in right now," something several other lawmakers echoed.
- “我们正在为选举前、中、后可能出现的各种戏剧性局面做好准备，”众议员贾里德·哈夫曼（民主党-加利福尼亚州）说。
• "We're bracing for all manner of drama before, during and after the election," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). The other side:
另一方观点：“民主党人试图转移视线，掩盖他们操纵阿拉斯加选票的秘密腐败计划被曝光，”白宫发言人劳伦·比斯说，指的是《纽约时报》关于起草搅局参议员候选人丹·J·沙利文的报道。
"The Democrats are trying to deflect from the revelation of their secret, corrupt plan to stack Alaska's ballot," said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis, referring to a New York Times report about the drafting of spoiler Senate candidate Dan J. Sullivan.
- 司政部已提起诉讼，要求推迟认证阿拉斯加参议院选举结果，以防共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文以微弱劣势落败。
• The Justice Department has sued to delay certification of Alaska's Senate election if Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan narrowly loses.
- “如果民主党人需要用这种手段才能赢得选举，也许他们应该重新审视他们的激进政策，”比斯说。
• "If these are the types of tactics Democrats need to use to win elections, maybe they should reexamine their radical policies," Bis said.
其他民主党人担心共和党捐赠者和超级政治行动委员会在最后关头的疯狂砸钱，将在竞选最后几天给共和党带来关键助推。
Other Democrats worry that an eleventh-hour spending spree by Republican donors and super PACs will give the GOP a critical boost in the final days of the campaign.
- “埃隆·马斯克向共和党金库注入的 3.66 亿美元……确实已经渗透到了许多胶着的众议院和参议院竞选中，并支付了一堵‘宣传墙’，”拉斯金说。
• "Elon Musk's $366 million infusion to Republican coffers ... has definitely filtered down into a lot of the close House and Senate campaigns and paid for a wall of propaganda," said Raskin.
- 一位众议院民主党人告诉《Axios》，对于“来自共和党方面的超级政治行动委员会资金”存在“一些焦虑”，这些资金“主要来自”战场选区的候选人。
• Another House Democrat told Axios that there is "some anxiety about the super PAC money from Rs," which is "mostly coming" from candidates in battleground districts. Zoom in:
聚焦细节：议员们还指出了帮助某些共和党人逆全国逆风而行的特定选情动态。
Lawmakers also pointed to race-specific dynamics that have helped certain Republicans outrun national headwinds.
- 一位来自纽约州的众议院民主党人告诉《Axios》，尽管卡玛拉·哈里斯在 2024 年赢得了该选区，但民主党人凯特·康利与众议员迈克·劳勒（共和党-纽约州）之间的较量依然“势均力敌、极其胶着”。
• The battle between Democrat Cait Conley and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is "razor-thin close" despite Kamala Harris carrying the district in 2024, a House Democrat from New York told Axios.
- 一位来自密歇根州的众议院民主党人告诉《Axios》，参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德作为领衔候选人的疲软，正在“损害”该州战场众议院选区的民主党竞选。
• A House Democrat from Michigan told Axios that Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's weakness atop the ticket is "hurting" Democratic campaigns in the state's battleground House districts.
- 一位来自得克萨斯州的众议院民主党人告诉《Axios》，该党将可能在几个本可赢下的席位上落短，原因要么是候选人招募不力，要么是全国党组织投入不足。
• A House Democrat from Texas told Axios the party will likely fall short in several winnable seats there because of either poor recruitment or insufficient investment from the national party.
核心在于：“参选只有两种方式——要么怀着敬畏之心，要么无人竞争，”肖尔滕说。
The bottom line: "There are two ways to run — scared and unopposed," said Scholten.
- “我们正在全国各地参加艰难的选战，我们将在每一场选战中都全力冲刺、坚持到底。”
• "We're running in tough elections all across the country, and we're going to run hard through the tape in every single one."