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卫报观点:美国中期选举——生活成本是选票焦点,但这关乎民主The Guardian view on the US midterms: the cost of living is on the ballot, but this is about democracy too

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7月13日,在伊格尔帕斯,得克萨斯州民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科的领先支持者肯·帕克斯顿。摄影:Bob Daemmrich/Zuma Press Wire/ShutterstockSupporters of James Talarico, the Democratic candidate leading the Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, in Eagle Pass on 13 July. Photograph: Bob Daemmrich/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock

唐纳德·特朗普的低支持率以及选民面临的经济困境为民主党注入了动力。然而,在距离选举不到一个月的时间里,民主党人并未掉以轻心。这一次,民主党人和唐纳德·特朗普可能在某事上达成了共识:这位历史上不受欢迎的总统指示支持者“假装我在竞选名单上”。中期选举在很大程度上是对现任政府的公投,特朗普对伊朗的战争及其对生活成本的影响提升了民主党的人气。

Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the economic struggles of voters have boosted Democrats. But with less than a month to go, there is no complacency For once, Democrats and Donald Trump might be in agreement: “Pretend I’m on the ticket,” the historically unpopular president has instructed supporters. Midterms are in large part a referendum on the incumbent, and Trump’s war on Iran and its impact on the cost of living have boosted support for Democrats.

在不到一个月的时间里,民主党人有理由保持乐观。在经历了2024年的惨败以及共和党对选区的划分(杰利蝾螈)之后,民主党面临着一座难以逾越的大山,但民调显示,在衡量政党偏好而非具体候选人的通用选票上,民主党领先约九个百分点。

With less than a month to go, they have reason to be upbeat. The party has a mountain to climb after the devastating defeats of 2024, and the gerrymandering of Republicans, but surveys give it a lead of about nine points on the generic ballot, which measures preference for parties rather than specific candidates.

人们的注意力已从争取众议院控制权的前景(预计民主党将获得明确多数席位)转移到了曾经看似过于乐观的夺取参议院控制权的可能性上。这需要翻转四个席位,而共有35个席位处于竞争状态。令人惊讶的是,民主党在从得克萨斯州到阿拉斯加的红州(共和党占优州)表现强劲。在堪萨斯州——特朗普曾以16个百分点的优势获胜,且自1932年以来未选出过民主党参议员——目前的竞选形势难分伯仲。

Attention has turned from the prospects of seizing the House, where Democrats are forecast a clear majority, to what once seemed like the highly optimistic possibility of taking the Senate too. That would require flipping four seats, with 35 in play. Remarkably, Democrats are prospering in red states from Texas to Alaska. In Kansas – which Mr Trump carried by 16 points, and which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 – the race is neck and neck.